Seychelles: some hard facts on the geopolitics of the region
It may well be that readers of the couple of articles I published during my recent three week sojourn in the Seychelles archipelago wanted more substantive facts in support of my claim that the island chain has geopolitical relevance to the reshaping of the global order in this time of proxy war over Ukraine. I will oblige by providing here some evidence that inter alia pins down with greater precision my previous offhand remarks about “yachts” parked in the harbor of the Seychelles capital, Victoria.
What I am about to say will hardly be revelatory to U.S. and other Western intelligence officers. It is plain as day to anyone operating an embassy in Mahe or flying satellites over this region. But it is unknowable to all other mortals who have not put feet on the ground in Seychelles.
Let me begin with the most dramatic facts.
As I noted, there is now and has for many months been a strange looking “yacht” anchored in the channel separating the main island of Mahe from the small resort island of Cerf. I am told that the owners applied for mooring in the main port but were denied a place simply because it is too large and its presence might inconvenience visiting cruise ships.
Though it is called a yacht, the size and the configuration of this vessel render it more like a warship than a pleasure craft. Its size has to be on the order of 100 meters, meaning it is in the same order of magnitude as the Russian Navy’s frigate Admiral Gorshkov, which, as we know, is packed with enough missiles to sink the Sixth Fleet. The suggestion that this ship might just have a military dimension comes from its having two helicopter landing pads, one fore and one aft; and also from the formidable array of telecoms and other electronic gear at the very top of its multistory construction. It is hard to imagine that its vast interior space is intended for the entertainment of invitees to a dinner and dance, least of all in a remote unpopulated location like the Seychelles.
I was told this ship is valued at $500 million, a guess which I pass along without judgment. I have now learned that the owner is said to be Russia’s richest man, Aleksei Aleksandrovich Mordashev, who in 2021 was worth 32 billion dollars according to Wikipedia. His prime asset, of which he is 77% owner, is the metals producer Severstal. Perhaps more to the point, he is board chairman of the St Petersburg heavy industry combine Silovye Mashiny, which has an important military component. Of course, Mr. Mordashev is on U.S. and European sanctions lists for being a Kremlin insider.
For all of these reasons, it seems appropriate to consider the “yacht” to be a listening post for naval activities in the Indian Ocean. And why not? For decades Seychelles was the base for U.S. naval surveillance of the Indian Ocean from a site atop the hills overlooking the capital city of Victoria. In 1996, the government of the Seychelles raised the rent charged to the U.S. to the unheard-of price of $10 million per year, and the Americans left. That particular parcel of land is now held by the sheikh of Abu Dhabi who in 2010 built a pleasure palace there.
Before moving on to the broader geopolitical context, allow me to mention a relevant detail about one other yacht which I saw up close, at a distance of about 50 meters from the elegant marina restaurant where I enjoyed my last lunch before departing Seychelles. This rather modest boat is very definitely a pleasure craft. Its owner: none other than Andrei Leonidovich Kostin, whom Wikipedia describes as “a Russian banker and financier, social and political figure, Chairman and CEO of VTB.” The acronym VTB pertains to one of Russia’s largest banks, known in the Soviet past as the Foreign Trade Bank, though today it is also a normal commercial bank with retail operations for the broad public.
Considering the occasional presence of the sheikh of Abu Dhabi, this location is clearly a good place for discrete meetings over financial issues including the growing Russian reserves in UAE dirhams.
Private jets no doubt figure in the logistics of some of these wealthiest Russian visitors to Seychelles, although they are not absolutely necessary: Aeroflot now has direct flights from Moscow to the Seychelles International Airport. This airline, as well as Emirates, is nicely supporting the flow of Russian tourists to the archipelago, which have now become the single largest contingent of foreign visitors.
I hear that the United States will soon devote a full-time ambassador to Seychelles, ending his joint responsibility for diplomatic presence in the separate island nation of Mauritius. Perhaps this change is related to the growing geopolitical importance of Seychelles in the Big Game.
Keep in mind that the various islands in the middle of the Indian Ocean have been and remain chess pieces for the Big Powers. The most important geopolitical development in the region was the 1967 cession of the British territory of Diego Garcia to the United States for a jointly run Naval Support Facility. This conversion entailed the expulsion of the small local population of the island, mostly to Mauritius and to the Seychelles, and it served as a lesson to the Seychelles government on what to avoid if it is to have an independent status and prosperity going forward. In that connection, in the new millennium there was serious political debate in Seychelles over an approach by the Indian government to take over one of the outlying islands of their archipelago for its own planned listening post. The Seychellois finally turned that one down. Surely this will not prevent the Chinese from making their own approach.
As for the European Union, Seychelles also has its own importance though solely in the economic domain. Unlike many oceanic islands around the world which were created by volcanic action, the Seychelles were moved to their present position by tectonic shifts in the Earth’s crust when the Indian subcontinent separated from Africa. Accordingly these granite islands sit atop a continental shelf which is rich in fishing grounds. These are leased to the EU in exchange for serious annual financial contributions. What you find here in particular is marlin and tuna in abundance. It is not for nothing that Mahe is home to a tuna tinning plant that was built and long owned by Heinz, but now is run by a concern based in Thailand.
Reserves of gas were discovered in the waters of the Seychelles a few years ago, but they were deemed too small to justify commercial exploitation. Nonetheless, between fishing and the hospitality industry which employs 30% of the Seychelles population, including a great many guest workers from the Indian subcontinent, the Seychelles are ranked as the African country with the highest nominal GDP per capita. Yes, for statisticians, the Seychelles are grouped with Africa, from which they are just 800 km distant. It is also relevant to note that the Seychelles are given the highest ratings in Africa for clean government, i.e. corruption free. That will make it tough for any of the Great Powers to have their way.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023