Chinese Visit to Moscow Showcases Deepening Ties With Russia
Trip by China’s top diplomat reflects close relationship between the countries amid animosity with the West
This week’s visit to Moscow by China’s top diplomat signals the importance Beijing and Moscow place on a relationship that has grown deeper in the face of growing animosity to the West and geopolitical realignments driven by the conflict in Ukraine.
Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, arrives in Moscow on Monday at the end of a European tour where he presented Beijing as committed to peace in Ukraine and eager to strengthen diplomatic ties with the outside world following three years of pandemic isolation.
Mr. Wang’s visit to Moscow marks a contrast to the fresh strains in U.S.-China relations in the wake of Washington’s decision to shoot down what it called a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon.
On Saturday, Mr. Wang and Secretary of State Antony Blinken met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in an effort to stabilize relations. The unscheduled meeting was held in a tense atmosphere, with Mr. Wang using a speech earlier in the day to describe the U.S. reaction to the appearance of a Chinese balloon in U.S. airspace as “nearly hysterical.”
Mr. Wang’s Moscow visit is set to take place just a few days ahead of the first anniversary on Friday of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to deliver a major address to Russia’s Federal Council, in which he is expected to pay special attention to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state television on Sunday. On the same day, President Biden will be in Poland on a visit meant to highlight the strength of the trans-Atlantic partnership in countering Russia.
The Ukraine conflict has deepened Russia’s isolation in the world, increased its economic dependence on China and played into Beijing’s longstanding goal of cultivating partners who can push back against the West.
Meanwhile, Russia’s growing reliance on China has given Beijing a valuable asset in promoting its own geopolitical priorities. For instance, it can count on Russia’s veto at the United Nations Security Council, as well as on Moscow’s support in China’s clashes with the U.S. and its allies over issues such as Taiwan.
Since Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin declared “no limits” to Russia-China friendship in a meeting in Beijing on the eve of the Ukraine invasion, Beijing has sought a middle ground on the conflict. It has called for peace, but has also declined to criticize Russia’s invasion and instead has portrayed the U.S. as the chief instigator of the conflict. Mr. Xi is expected to give a speech on Friday, calling for peace.
“It is not surprising to see Wang Yi in Europe say something vague about principles of territorial integrity and international law, things like nuclear deterrence,” said Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “While he’s in Moscow he will be talking about opposite things, about confronting the hegemony of the U.S.”
In a weekend interview with “Face the Nation,” Mr. Blinken said that the U.S. has information that China is “considering providing lethal support” to Moscow for its war in Ukraine, warning that “that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.”
Last week China began conducting naval drills with Russia and South Africa in the Indian Ocean, a signal of Beijing’s and Moscow’s continuing military ties.
“I would call it a ‘strategic bromance,’ ” said Mr. Umarov. “There are definitely questions that Beijing and Moscow think about identically: this idea of global order being unfair to them, of the U.S. always having the bigger say and the idea that democracy is a very flexible term that can call basically anything.”
Mr. Wang’s visit to Moscow could pave the way for Mr. Xi to visit Russia later this year, a summit that would showcase the rapport between Messrs Putin and Xi—a close personal relationship that anchors the countries’ bilateral relations.
The two men have met 39 times since 2013, the year that Mr. Xi officially took office, attending high-profile events in each other’s countries.
Mr. Xi likely has better personal ties with Mr. Putin than any other international leader, said people familiar with the matter. The two discuss history and philosophical issues when together, the people said.
At a summit in Bali in 2013, Mr. Xi presented a birthday cake for Mr. Putin’s 61st birthday, and the two celebrated with sausages and vodka, according to Chinese state media.
“I have not established such a relationship or made a similar arrangement with any foreign leaders, but I did that with President Xi,” Mr. Putin, who avoids alcohol, later told Chinese state-run television.
In 2019, during a summit in Tajikistan, Mr. Putin brought Mr. Xi a white cake with shakily written Chinese characters for “good fortune double six” to mark Mr. Xi’s 66th birthday. State television showed them toasting with Champagne glasses.
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When the two men met last year in Beijing, on the eve of the Winter Olympics and just ahead of the invasion, Mr. Putin told Mr. Xi privately that the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had been pushing Russia on Ukraine and had put Moscow in a position where it would have to respond, including with military action, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Mr. Xi acknowledged his concerns and assured him that Moscow would have Beijing’s support, the person said.
Since then, Mr. Xi has at times tried to publicly set some boundaries. In meetings in November with President Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, he said he opposed use of nuclear weapons, a strategy at which Mr. Putin had hinted.
At a September summit meeting in Uzbekistan, Mr. Putin publicly acknowledged Mr. Xi’s “questions and concerns” about Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But privately, the tone between the two leaders was friendly, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Mr. Putin assured the Chinese delegation that he was in control of the war, and Mr. Xi told the Russian leader that Beijing would like to deepen its relationship with Moscow, the person said.
“In the context of growing geopolitical tensions, the importance of the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership as a stability factor is growing,” Mr. Putin told Mr. Xi during a videoconference in December. “Our relations have passed all the tests, demonstrating their maturity and stability.”
China has helped prop up Russia’s sanctions-battered economy. By the end of last year, trade between the two nations was expected to have increased by around 25% from 2021, Mr. Putin said in December. He said overall trade between Russia and China was expected to reach $200 billion by 2024. As Moscow’s sale of oil and gas to Europe has fallen, Beijing has stepped in to buy. Russia has also increased usage of China’s yuan.
The increased reliance on Beijing comes despite concern among some officials in Moscow that Russia could become overly reliant on China’s economy.
According to estimates from the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a lobbying group for Russian businesses based in Moscow, 85% of the shortfall in imports from Europe and the U.S. due to sanctions can be replaced by supplies from China and other Asian countries.
China, which hasn’t joined Western sanctions on Russia, is a key supplier of technology such as semiconductors and microchips that Russia needs to build weapons and equipment for its war effort. But such help is limited, with China unlikely to fully offset the investment and technology Russia has lost because of sanctions.
According to the official Russian figures, by the end of 2022, agricultural exports to China rose by 36%. That surge allowed China to regain its position as the largest buyer of Russian agricultural and food products, which it had lost to the European Union in 2021. Chinese cars are also flooding into the Russian market, with some analysts estimating that Chinese cars could account for well over a third of Russian vehicle sales this year.
Write to Austin Ramzy at austin.ramzy@wsj.com, Keith Zhai at keith.zhai@wsj.com and Ann M. Simmons at ann.simmons@wsj.com