The Buildup To War In Ukraine - Sunday, February 20, 2022
February 20, 2023
It is somewhat disquieting how the events these days track those of a year ago.
In 2022 we saw a preparation of Russian and Ukrainian troops for a war, a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Belarus, an exercise of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces on February 19, a strong Putin speech on the 21st, followed the next day by legislative action. Then the solemn and very symbolic Defender of the Fatherland Day on February 23 with military action starting the next day.
The anniversary is following the same pattern. The mobilized troops have been prepared. Putin has again met Lukashenko. Yesterday there was another strategic nuclear exercise. Tomorrow at noon (Moscow time) Putin will hold a public address. On the 22nd the Duma will hold an extraordinary session. Then another wreath laying during the Defender of the Fatherland Day followed by what? We don't know. But something is definitely coming.
From AP's summary of Sunday, February 20, 2022:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, facing a sharp spike in violence in and around territory held by Russia-backed rebels and increasingly dire warnings that Russia plans to invade, on Saturday called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him and seek resolution to the crisis.
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In new signs of fears that a war could start within days, Germany and Austria told their citizens to leave Ukraine. German air carrier Lufthansa canceled flights to the capital, Kyiv, and to Odessa, a Black Sea port that could be a key target in an invasion.NATO’s liaison office in Kyiv said it was relocating staff to Brussels and to the western Ukraine city of Lviv.
CNN added:
The Ukrainian defense ministry has reported further ceasefire violations in the east, after a day of heavy weapons fire Saturday.
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Ukraine said it recorded a total of 136 ceasefire violations on Saturday.The Ukrainian Border Guards said that because of the shelling one crossing point for international humanitarian organizations, Shchastia, at the Line of Contact had been closed since 8:00 a.m. local time Sunday. A UNHCR convoy that used the crossing point Friday said it had been caught in crossfire.
Some residents of Donetsk -- which is controlled by pro-Russian separatists -- reported heavy shelling early Sunday. One woman contacted by CNN said she and her children wanted to move closer to the city center because of shelling in her district, Abakumova.
It's unclear where the shelling originated. The authorities in the breakaway republics persistently claim shelling by Ukrainian forces, who in turn regularly deny firing artillery across the front lines.
The woman also told CNN that on Saturday her neighbors had left for Russia and had been accommodated somewhere near Rostov-on-Don in a tent encampment.
The Russian authorities say that more than 40,000 people have arrived in Russia after being evacuated from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, according to the acting head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Alexander Chupriyan.
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Russia's Investigative Committee says it is beginning an investigation into media reports of fatalities due to shelling in Luhansk region. In a statement, the committee said: "The media reported that this morning the Armed Forces of Ukraine made an attempt to attack the positions of the People's Militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, while, according to preliminary data, there are casualties among the civilian population."
The Donetzk News Agnecy reported of infiltration attempts:
Donetsk, Feb 21 – DAN. Ukrainian saboteur squad has infiltrated the DPR with the purpose of arriving to the Russian border, the Ministry of State Security said.
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"A DPR artillery depot has been blown up," the report added.Another saboteur attack was thwarted in Donetsk in the night of February 20.
A Ukrainian saboteur blew himself up at the Donetsk railway station this morning while installing an explosive device.
The President of Russia Vladimir Putin had a call with the French President Emmanuel Macron:
In a follow-up to the talks during President Macron’s recent visit to Moscow and regular telephone conversations, the two leaders had an in-depth discussion of the developments around Ukraine as well as developments regarding long-term legal security guarantees for the Russian Federation.Serious concerns were expressed due to the quickly deteriorating situation along the contact line in Donbass. The President of Russia noted that provocations from Ukrainian militants were the reason for the escalation. Attention was drawn to the modern weapons and ammunition being sent to Ukraine by NATO member countries, which is encouraging Kiev to pursue a military solution to the Donbass problem. As a result, civilians in the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics are suffering and being forced to leave for Russia to save themselves from intensifying attacks.
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of Saturday, February 19 2022 and Sunday, February 20 2022 without separating both days in its verbal description.
In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the SMM recorded 2,158 ceasefire violations, including 1,100 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the region.In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the Mission recorded 1,073 ceasefire violations, including 926 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 975 ceasefire violations in the region.
However the graphic showing the number of observed incidents attached to the report separates both days. For unknown reasons the number of total ceasefire violations and explosions on Sunday decreased significantly from the previous day. (This was however not a trend. The next day will see another large increase.)
The map shows ceasefire violations in yellow, orange to red colors. Most of these appear on the side of the Donbas republics. The source of most of the ceasefire violations, like noise of shooting or explosions recorded by cameras, drones or heard by the observers, is listed as 'undetermined'.
The map shows explosions, as small black dots, on both sides of the ceasefire line for Saturday and Sunday. While only few of the hundreds of explosions were located and marked on the map a count of the black dots shows some evenness with 25 impacts marked on the Donbas side and 28 on the government controlled side of the ceasefire line.
Posted by b on February 20, 2023 at 15:37 UTC | Permalink