[Salon] Pay attention to Indonesia. It will help determine the future of Asia



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/20/indonesia-geopolitics-china-us-indopacific/

Pay attention to Indonesia. It will help determine the future of Asia.

It’s hard to think of another country as big and important as Indonesia that is so completely ignored by the American public.

With a population of 274 million, it is the fourth-largest country in the world, the third-most populous democracy, and the most populous Muslim-majority country. (It has seven times as many Muslims as Saudi Arabia.) It is the world’s largest producer of nickel and could become the second-largest producer of cobalt — two of the minerals needed for making electric vehicle batteries. It dominates one of the world’s most strategically important waterways — the Straits of Malacca, linking the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Most of China’s energy supplies pass through the Straits. Little wonder that Indonesia has become a fulcrum of U.S.-China competition.

Yet how many Americans could name the president of Indonesia, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi)? Americans generally only pay attention to news from Indonesia when there are either man-made disasters (e.g., the 2002 Bali bombings that killed 202 people) or natural disasters (e.g., the 2004 tsunami that killed more than 200,000 ). Few Americans have visited any part of the vast archipelago other than Bali, one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations and the setting of no less than two Julia Roberts movies.

Until recently I, too, had been lamentably ignorant about Indonesia. I am now a little less ignorant after having traveled around that sprawling country for a couple of weeks and afterward talking to experts about its future development. To the extent that Indonesia engages abroad, it is usually through multilateral organizations such as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), which Indonesia chairs this year.

Back in the 1950s, Indonesia’s founding strongman, Sukarno, made the country a pillar of the nonaligned movement composed of countries that refused to choose sides in the Cold War. Following the traumas of colonialization first by the Dutch and then the Japanese, most Indonesians vowed to keep their distance from the big powers.

Today, like most other Asian states, Indonesia is trying to triangulate between Beijing and Washington. China is its largest trading partner but also its largest security threat: Like many other states in Southeast Asia, Indonesia disputes China’s claim over its territorial waters in the South China Sea. The United States can be a valuable ally in protecting Indonesia’s territorial integrity.

Hence Indonesia’s bifurcated foreign policy: While China is investing billions of dollars in projects such as a new high-speed rail line between Jakarta and Bandung, the Indonesian military in August joined the U.S.-led Super Garuda Shield military exercise involving 5,000 troops from 14 nations.

Evan Laksmana, a researcher at Singapore's National University, told me that the United States “doesn’t have moral standing in Indonesia because of its support for Suharto,” who came to power amid a purge of Communists that resulted in at least 500,000 deaths. “U.S. talk of a rules-based order seems hollow.” At least one American, however, is wildly popular: A number of Indonesians told me how much they like former president Barack Obama, who spent part of his childhood in Jakarta.

While Indonesians aren’t enamored of the United States, most are hardly fans of China, either. Ethnic Chinese Indonesians are often resented for being wealthier than other Indonesians, and China’s ostensibly Communist system is anathema to pious Muslims. “In the 1950s and 1960s, it was damaging to be called a U.S. stooge,” Laksmana said. “That’s not an issue anymore. But to be called a Chinese lackey today is damaging.”

The Biden administration is aware of the importance of Indonesia and is working to cultivate closer ties. Both President Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited in November, and the United States is looking to expand cooperation on everything from counterterrorism and maritime security to green energy and cybersecurity. While Indonesia doesn’t want to join an alliance to contain China, it is working closely with Washington on other priorities, such as restoring democracy in Myanmar.

A senior U.S. defense official told me: “It’s a really important country and this year in particular, with its ASEAN chairmanship, it’s an important year for people to pay a lot of attention to a country that is a leading power not only in Southeast Asia but also globally.” Indonesia deserves more attention not only from U.S. policymakers but also from the public. It will have a large say in determining the future of Asia.



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