Is the U.S. about to fall in a proxy war with China ... in Europe?
Beijing is considering providing lethal aid to Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials have said,
including "artillery in addition to drones and possibly other weapons
to help Russian forces stave off an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive
this summer."
American aid to Kyiv already puts the U.S. in indirect conflict with
Russia, and U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan are running high. If China
also becomes involved in the war in Ukraine, fears of a new U.S.-China-Russia Cold War—or, worse, a hot war—will only spike further.
But that horrific prospect isn't inevitable. Here's an overview of
recent developments and the need for prudence and restraint moving
forward.
Steps toward conflict
- Beijing on Friday issued a 12-point statement of its position on
Ukraine urging peace talks, opposing use of nuclear weapons, and calling
for an end to unilateral sanctions not approved by the United Nations
Security Council, where Russia is able to veto sanctions on itself. [CGTN / Chinese Foreign Ministry]
- U.S. and NATO officials dismissed the proposal. [Bloomberg]
- The Kremlin said the plan should be "painstakingly analysed taking into account the interests of all the different sides." [Reuters]
- The U.S. is leading the West in its "one goal" of disbanding Russia
and other former Soviet states, Russian President Vladimir Putin
alleged Sunday. [Politico / Aitor Hernández-Morales]
- China hasn't provided military aid yet, the Biden administration said:
- "I don't anticipate a major initiative on the part of China
providing weaponry to Russia," President Joe Biden said in an interview
Friday, adding that he "would respond" if Beijing did take that step. [FT / Demetri Sevastopulo]
- "Beijing will have to make its own decisions about how it
proceeds," said National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday,
promising such aid would "come at real cost to China." [Politico / Kelly Garrity]
- Meanwhile, the U.S. is more than quadrupling its troop presence in Taiwan to train local forces to counter China. [WSJ / Nancy A. Youssef and Gordon Lubold]
The necessity of stepping back
- Washington must "avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China
because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. U.S.
citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight
far from home. But China is a different kind of foe—a military,
economic, and technological power capable of making a war felt in the
American homeland." [NYT / Ross Babbage]
- "We aren't talking about two pipsqueak countries with next to no
geopolitical significance but rather two economic giants that make up
around 42 percent of the world's gross domestic product and more than
half its military spending and have a booming trade relationship of
their own." [Chicago Tribune / Daniel R. DePetris]
- "In the current atmosphere of intense distrust, verbal assurances
have to be accompanied by coordinated, reciprocal actions to reduce the
risk of a catastrophic crisis." [WaPo / Jessica Chen Weiss]
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