https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/much-ado-about-nothing.html
Much Ado About Nothing
July 19, 2023
A bunch of current headlines are scary:
- Higher food prices and more hunger: Collapse of Black Sea grain deal poses a massive threat - CNN - Jul 18
- World facing prospect of 'hunger games' as China hoards grains and Russia withdraws from deal - Indian Express - Jul 19
- Russian Grain Deal: Why Moscow Is Being Accused Of Using Hunger As 'Blackmail' - Yahoo - Jul 18
- Russia halts deal allowing Ukraine to export grain, in a hit to global food security - LA Times - Jul 17
- Higher food prices and more hunger: Collapse of Black Sea grain deal poses a massive threat - CNN - Jul 18
- Russia pulls out of Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine sparking hunger fears in poorest countries - ITV - Jul 17
- ...
Then there is the real world in which wheat is produced and traded internationally:
The peak in summer 2022 was caused by the war in Ukraine and not natural. Since then prices have moved with the usual ups and downs towards a rather normal level. When the Black Sea grain deal ended they stayed within their previous range.
Meanwhile the main grain elevator at the port of Odessa, which presumably has been used as part of the vaunted Ukrainian air-defense, successfully interdicted a Kalibr missile.
More wheat is coming to the markets from other producers than Ukraine. During the next year, even without grain from Ukraine, prices for wheat and corn may actually come down:
World wheat supplies are strong following exceptionally high exports from Australia and Russia and a rebound in Canadian shipments after droughts disrupted last year’s season. After falling for years, global stocks may finally rise in 2023. As for corn, Ukraine’s shortfall may well be filled by expected record sales from Brazil, reckons Alexis Ellender of Kpler, a data firm.
So this is much ado about nothing. Globally Ukraine just isn't important at all.