[Salon] Two Koreas harden war-era alliances 70 years after combat ended



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July 27, 2023

Two Koreas harden war-era alliances 70 years after combat ended

North hosts China, Russia delegations; South invites foreign veterans

SEOUL -- The two Koreas on Thursday marked a key anniversary of the agreement that stopped combat in the Korean War, using gestures that show how the conflict's legacy continues to shape the countries' diplomatic and security postures.

North Korea hosted delegations from China and Russia, part of ongoing efforts to draw closer to those Cold War-era allies. In Pyongyang, leader Kim Jong Un led Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on a tour where he displayed ballistic missiles and other heavy weaponry.

In the South, President Yoon Suk Yeol visited a symbolic cemetery in the city of Busan where he paid respects to soldiers from United Nations coalition members who died while fighting alongside South Korea and the U.S.

The Korean War started in June 1950 when North Korea invaded the South and captured the capital, Seoul. The U.S. then led a coalition of United Nations member states into battle against the North Korean forces, who were supported by Chinese troops.

Fighting raged across the mountainous peninsula until peace talks led to an Armistice Agreement on July 27, 1953.

In the decades since, South Korea, with economic assistance from the U.S., has built a successful market economy and functioning democracy. To this day, some 28,500 American soldiers are stationed in the South to deter the North from carrying out another attack.

North Korea today, on the other hand, is isolated and poor. The U.N. has implemented a broad range of sanctions and Security Council resolutions on the country's leadership over its development of nuclear weapons and abuses of human rights. China remains its only major ally.

Yoon's administration has carried out a string of moves affirming Seoul's determination to strengthen its security alliance with Washington.

Earlier this month, also in Busan, Yoon boarded the USS Kentucky, a ballistic missile submarine that is the first U.S. nuclear-armed sub to visit South Korea since the 1980s. While aboard the vessel, Yoon said aggressive acts by North Korea could bring about the end of the Pyongyang regime.

The U.S. military said in a statement that the submarine's visit to Busan "reinforces the United States' enduring and ironclad commitment" to ensuring "any nuclear attack" by North Korea on the South "would be met with a swift, overwhelming, and decisive response."

Following the deployment, North Korea's defense minister issued a statement saying that "the ever-increasing visibility" of high-powered U.S. hardware on the Korean Peninsula could meet Pyongyang's conditions for use of nuclear weapons.

"The U.S. military side should realize that its nuclear assets have entered extremely dangerous waters," the minister said.

During an April summit in Washington, South Korea and the U.S. agreed to "enhance the regular visibility of strategic assets," including nuclear ballistic missile submarines, in and near South Korea to deter North Korean aggression.

The agreement followed extensive discussions in South Korea over whether the country should develop nuclear weapons of its own to defend against the North, or continue to rely on nuclear protection from the U.S.

North Korea has since carried out a series of weapons tests, including two ballistic missile launches toward Japan on Wednesday and of multiple cruise missiles on Saturday, according to South Korea's military.

The displays of force appear to be Pyongyang's way of communicating displeasure with the stepped-up defense cooperation by Seoul and Washington. "The North appears to be trying to coerce South Korea and the U.S. to stop or reduce deployments of U.S. strategic assets like ballistic missile submarines to South Korea," Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at the RAND Corp., told Nikkei Asia.

"The North's ultimate objective is likely to undermine the South Korea-U.S. alliance because the South Korean people have begun worrying about the U.S. nuclear umbrella and extended deterrence more generally," Bennett said.

Domestic critics of Yoon argue that his bold moves to bolster ties with the U.S. risk incurring a backlash from China, South Korea's largest trading partner. Beijing has a history of using economic measures to retaliate against Seoul for cooperating militarily with Washington's plans to increase its presence in Asia.

Despite these concerns, China is unlikely for the moment to pressure South Korea economically, says Choo Jae-woo, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Kyung Hee University in Seoul.

"China really needs to cooperate with South Korea economically even if they don't like the way Yoon is handling the security side of things," Choo told Nikkei Asia.

"The semiconductors that China manufactures remain far below what China's tech companies require or would like to see, so they're not in a position to push back," Choo said."



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