Since NATO’s
expansion following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the main question
it’s faced has been how far the US and its allies will go to protect
nations under their collective security umbrella.
Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine provided a firm answer, as NATO heavyweights ramped
up security for members on the alliance’s eastern flank like Poland and
the three Baltic states. But the war has raised a new question: Can a
country in open conflict with Russia join?
The
short answer is no. While NATO states have poured billions of dollars
of economic and military aid into Ukraine to help it defend itself,
making it a member would by definition draw them into the war with
Russia.
Still,
North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders and officials meeting this
week in Moldova and Norway outlined positions that indicate Kyiv may
get, if not full membership, then at least some kind of insurance
policy. Talks are underway on what that may entail before NATO’s July
summit in Lithuania.
Admitting that
membership for Ukraine “isn’t accessible today,” French President
Emmanuel Macron floated the prospect of “tangible” security guarantees —
somewhere between what the US offers Israel and accession. Under
a proposal drafted by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh
Rasmussen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff,
allies would back Ukraine’s self-defense with commitments to provide
military and other resources. Ukraine’s
status is also expected to get an upgrade so it can directly take part
in discussions about NATO security. But according to a US source, it’s
unclear whether Kyiv will get an actual timeline to join. “We cannot talk about a new membership in the middle of a war,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in Oslo. For
now, NATO’s message to Ukraine is clear: You can have cash, weapons,
training and encouragement against Russia; but the fight is up to you. — Michael Winfrey
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Zelenskiy and Macron in Paris on May 14. Photographer: Benjamin Girette/Bloomberg