Trump’s Trial: The Israel-Iran Connection
The federal indictment of former President Donald Trump, which may proceed to a jury trial in Miami as early as Tuesday, has a distinct Israeli-Iranian angle.
Trump is being charged with several offenses which have to do with his alleged illegal possession of national security documents – their removal from the White House when he departed it, his reckless disregard to their storage in his private property, their exposure to unauthorized persons, etc. This behavior risked military, Nuclear and intelligence assets, both American and allied, according to the prosecution.
In Counts 6, 33 and 34 of the indictment, however, Trump is taken to task for a specific action, which obviously has to do with his policy vis-a-vis Iran. That policy, in turn, was supported, indeed initiated, by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It encountered resistance within the Administration, especially from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, headed by U.S. Army General Mark Milley. The military would salute and obey a lawful order by the Commander-in-Chief, given a plausible rationale and a sound basis for planning a campaign, including an exit strategy, and supporting it in Congressional hearings, media events and probable commissions of inquiry, should the information be challenged as it was after Iraq was invaded and found to have no weapons of mass destruction.
Milley was at first Trump’s favorite general. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) is not in the chain of command, which runs from the President and the Secretary of Defense to Combatant Commands, such as CENTCOM and STRATCOM (the latter operating missiles and bombers carrying nuclear warheads). In that sense, the CJCS, while outranking all other 4-Star general and flag officers, is not as powerful as his Israeli counterpart, the IDF Chief of Staff, who has exclusive and absolute command authority within the Israel Defense Forces. Nevertheless, by virtue of being the senior military adviser to the President, the National Security Council and Congress, the CJCS carries a lot of professional, non-partisan prestige.
There is no formal rotation between the services (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and more recently Space Force) in this position. At times, one service dominates. It happened in the 1960’s and again in the 1990’s, each times with three Army Generals in a row. Eventually, however, a fair balance is expected, subject to circumstances and personal taste.
Four years ago, Defense Secretary James Mattis, a retired Marine Corps General, narrowed the options to two Generals - Army Chief of Staff Milley and Air Force Chief David Goldfein. Of the two, Mattis recommended Goldfein, a distinguished pilot and planner, who also happens to be Jewish. It was high time for the Air Force to have its turn at the top, and Goldfein seemed the right candidate for the Job. (President Biden has now nominated for CJCS the current Air Force Chief, CQ Brown, who has come out forcefully against racial outbursts associated with Trump’s followers and will soon take over, with his Senate confirmation all but assured, once Milley retires)
U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis attend a Cabinet meeting in the White House, June 12, 2017.Credit: Andrew Harnik/AP
Trump rejected the Mattis recommendation, and soon enough Mattis himself quit. Milley, essentially due to a whim or personal taste, was Trump’s choice. But after a short honeymoon, their relationship soured, with Milley feeling used, indeed abused, by taking part in Trump’s march near the White House during racially-motivated demonstrations.
And so, on to Iran. The U.S. Military, much like the IDF, thought the 2015 JCPOA with Iran the lesser evil. Netanyahu, helped by his Ambassador to Washington Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor - later Mossad Chief - Yossi Cohen, worked to undercut this Obama-Biden Administration achievement. Once Trump beat Hillary Clinton, Netanyahu’s wish came true.
The Trump “Maximum Pressure” on Iran, spearheaded by Mike Pompeo as CIA Director and then Secretary of State, failed and considerably worsened the danger. Once Trump acted on his Netanyahu-prompted pledge to withdraw from the JCPOA, Iran moved to enrich Uranium faster and to higher level and cut off access to its facilities by IAEA monitors.
Matters came to a head during Trump’s final year in office, 2020, which started by the killing of Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force Chief Qassem Soleimani. Tensions between Tehran and Washington escalated. Netanyahu advocated for an American assault. The Pentagon, as directed, prepared and presented plans, but was reluctant to go on the attack.
In counts 33 and 34 of the indictment, Trump is described and quoted in a conversation with four people, none equipped with the essential top-security credentials to see and hear such secrets. Trump showed them “an attack plan on Country A” drawn up by “a Senior Military Official”, along with other tell-tale tidbits about American vulnerabilities and intelligence about foreign countries, with the inescapable assumption being that Israel is prominent among them, as Iran threatened to retaliate against Israeli, American and Gulf targets regardless of the attack’s origin.
The context is quite clear. On July 15, 2021, with Trump safely out of office and bad-mouthing Milley, the New Yorker magazine carried a report by Susan B. Glasser, headlined “You’re Gonna Have a Fucking War” - Mark Milley’s Fight To Stop Trump From Striking Iran”. The account detailed the fiery argument between the General and the defeated President during the transition, such as it was, to Biden. Trump’s response, as depicted in the indictment, came a week later.
The nuances in the Joint Chiefs approach (and probably Biden’s), which conflicted with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s, were for the first time clarified by Milley on a visit to Israel last September. Then-IDF Chief Aviv Kochavi, soon to relinquish command to Herzi Halevi, hosted Milley and other foreign military chiefs and showed them the best of Israel’s units and industries.
Following speeches by Kochavi and himself at the National Security College in Glilot, just north of Tel Aviv, Milley consented to a short interview in a makeshift studio at the college’s small library. His spokesman tried to steer the Chairman away, but Milley was more than willing to speak his mind. In fact, he insisted on heading towards the lone camera for TV7NEWS Israel, which awaited another American general.
In his remarks, Milley explained the difference between the policy directive to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons, with which he evidently had no quarrel, and the condition which may trigger a military operation against Iran. All Presidents, going back to Clinton or even earlier, have been determined to use all means to get rid of Iranian nuclear weapons, he reiterated, reassuring Israeli - and other - viewers.
But in Milley’s definition, the operation will only be justified if Iran has “a fielded Nuclear weapon”. That is, following a process of research, development, production and acquisition, a warhead is put on top of a missile, whose launcher is then deployed in the field.
To make sure the distinction was intentional, Milley was asked about the difference between Iran as a Nuclear threshold state – it is almost there, if not quite, being careful to stay within reach but not over the line – and having Nuclear weapons. He responded in the affirmative.
And so what Netanyahu started by going to Congress behind Obama’s back and then pushing Trump to undo his predecessor’s diplomatic success is coming back to haunt them. To borrow from the city’s team fighting a deficit in the NBS finals, judge and jury, prosecutors and ex-President, will surely face Miami Heat.