Ukraine SitRep: Destruction Of Its Third Army - Issues To Negotiate
June 12, 2023
Another Ukrainian attack got bogged down in a minefield.
- 3 Finnish Leopard 2R with mine clearing equipment
- 1 German Bergepanzer III recovery tank (based on the Leopard 2 chassis) with mine clearing equipment
- 2 German Leopard 2M6
- 2 U.S. M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
- 1 U.S. MaxxPro armored transport vehicle
- 1 U.S. HMMWV armored transport vehicle
- 1 unidentified vehicle
This follows other significant recent losses.
The total replacement cost of the above vehicles at present value is about $60-70 million.
During the spring and summer of 2022 the Russian forces destroyed the regular Ukrainian pre-war army. It was replaced with Soviet era material from east European states and Ukrainian draftees. By the beginning of this year that second army had also been destroyed.
What we currently witness is the demilitarization of Ukraine's third army.
As I detailed back in January:
The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of 'western' equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine's third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the 'West' has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.That then leaves only two options. Send in 'western' armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.
I do not sense any appetite in the U.S. or Europe to send their soldiers into Ukraine. It is quite obvious that their fates would be no different from the Ukrainian ones.
That leaves negotiations as the only option. There will be a lot of hesitation as the price Russia will ask for to stop the war will be high:
For starters, will Russia insist on securing the rights to all territory east of the Dnieper River and on a special status for Odessa? I think so. Odessa would no longer be ruled by Ukraine. I also would expect Russia to demand (non-negotiable) the arrest and prosecution of those responsible for the murder of 42 Russian speaking Ukrainians in 2014 who sought refuge in the Trade Unions House.I also would expect that Russia will demand the dismantling of NATO Aegis missile systems in Poland and Romania and a ban on U.S. or NATO troops being posted in countries that share a border with Ukraine. In light of Russia’s stated goal of de-nazification I would not be surprised if Russia demands the laws of Ukraine be changed and that Nazi-affiliated parties and symbols be banned.
I believe that Russia will want all historic Russian regions, at least those which Lenin and Khrushchev for whatever reasons gave to Ukraine, back under Russian control. Russia will also demand the lifting of all sanctions against it.
The West is failing to grasp the reality that Russia believes it is winning the war in Ukraine and that it is not suffering economic or political damage at home. And, when you factor in the international arena, the war has proven to be a boon for Russia’s efforts to help create a new international financial/trade system that circumvents Washington’s control. In other words, Russia has little incentive to entertain negotiations that would require Russian concessions.
It will still need some time for the 'western' public to move from swallowing 'Ukraine is wining' propaganda towards acknowledging reality. It unfortunately will also still take more Ukrainian and Russian losses.
But I strongly believe, maybe too wishfully, that the end of the war is now coming into sight.
Posted by b on June 12, 2023 at 14:15 UTC | Permalink