In the end, Putin demonstrated that he’s still in control of Russia.
By: Allison Fedirka
One of the more
important battles of the Ukraine war has been taking place within the
Russian government itself. Reports over the past several months paint a
picture of tension among the Kremlin, the military, private mercenaries
and oligarchs, even if most of their differences were kept out of the
public eye. That changed on June 23, when the Wagner Group started its
insurrection in southern Russia, clearly demonstrating that it disagreed
with President Vladimir Putin and that it was ready to defy the Defense
Ministry. This raised questions about whether the insurrection could
upend the government. It didn’t.
Initially, Wagner
took control of Rostov-on-Don. Armored vehicles along with detachments
of Wagner cordoned off the headquarters of the Southern Military
District, the head office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the local
Federal Security Service building, one of the police departments and
more. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin conditioned his release of the city
on Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery
Gerasimov meeting him at the headquarters of the Southern Military
District. A contingent of Wagner forces also advanced north from
Rostov-on-Don, past Voronezh and toward Moscow. Western media, in
contrast to Russian outlets, reported that Wagner had taken control of
all military facilities in Voronezh.
The Kremlin’s
response came quickly. First, it tried to deplete the ranks of the
Wagner fighters, appealing to those involved in the Rostov-on-Don
operation to stop and resume contact with Russian officials as quickly
as possible. The Defense Ministry also announced that it was aiding
Wagner fighters who ask for the safe return to their bases. Reports
suggest some took the government up on the offer, or returned to their
places of deployment after being called up by the ministry.
In response to
the threat to Moscow, the Kremlin expanded the coverage area of its
special anti-terrorist operation to include the capital city, its
surrounding regions and Voronezh. It also canceled large public events
and removed Wagner advertisements. In St. Petersburg, government
security forces cordoned off Wagner’s building on Zolotaya Street. The
government closed part of the M-4 highway in the Voronezh region. Most
notably, Russian military aircraft reportedly engaged the Wagner forces
along the highway.
Meanwhile, Putin
tried to consolidate public support and show strength. In a morning
address, he called Wagner’s actions treasonous and warned that
participants in the rebellion would suffer severe punishment. He also
called friendly governments in the region – Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan and Turkey – to try to shore up support.
Evidently, the
conversation between Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
was extremely fruitful. Lukashenko mediated talks between Putin and
Prigozhin that resulted in an agreement whose details remain a mystery –
except that Prigozhin announced that Wagner would stop its advance
toward Moscow, return to its bases and try to further de-escalate.
Whether or not
the situation is resolved, the future of Russia’s armed forces and
Wagner remains uncertain. Wagner played a key role in Russia’s strategy
in Ukraine and repeatedly proved to be among Russia’s most effective
fighting forces. It is unclear whether Wagner will challenge Putin again
in the future, or whether there will be changes in the Russian military
leadership. Also unclear is what effect the insurrection and agreement
might have on Wagner and Russian troops in Ukraine.
A final
possibility is that we have just witnessed a classic Russian
“maskirovka,” basically theater to distract from the fighting in
Ukraine. Ultimately, no definitive casualties were reported, and a
negotiated settlement was reached. It took some wind out of Wagner’s
sails, improved Lukashenko’s image and, in the end, demonstrated that
Putin remains in control of Russia. |