Taiwan Elections a Big Topic During Blinken’s Talks in China
Beijing sought to size up Washington’s interest in the race, people briefed on the talks say
June 25, 2023
Taiwan’s coming presidential election loomed large in talks between senior Chinese officials and Antony Blinken during the U.S. secretary of state’s recent visit to Beijing, according to people briefed on the matter.
The people said Beijing tried to size up Washington’s interest in the race in self-ruled Taiwan, with Chinese officials sharing with Blinken their concerns over the presidential candidate of the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP.
Chinese officials indicated the political position of Vice President Lai Ching-te, considered by Beijing as a member of the “pro-independence” wing, could exacerbate tensions across the Taiwan Strait, further harming the relations between the U.S. and China, the people briefed on the matter said.
Lai hails from a DPP camp that is typically more aggressive about asserting Taiwan’s independence than President Tsai Ing-wen, who is barred by term limits from running again. Lai, who once described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence,” has moderated his position and, as a candidate, has promised to take a practical approach to China.
In apparent hopes of eliciting U.S. cooperation, the Chinese officials referred to how in 2003, then-President George W. Bush issued a warning to another Taiwan president and DPP leader, Chen Shui-bian, whose policies threatened the cross-strait status quo. With then-Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao sitting next to him in the Oval Office, Bush bluntly cautioned the Taiwanese government against stoking pro-independence sentiment.
In last week’s meeting, Chinese officials asked Blinken if the U.S. has a vested interest in the outcome of the Taiwan election, scheduled for January, and whether the Americans see the DPP as a friend, the people said.
In response to the questions from the Chinese, the people said, Blinken repeated the administration’s position that the U.S. will be even-handed in the election and that it doesn’t support any meddling in the process.
Neither China’s Foreign Ministry nor the State Department responded to requests for comment.
Beijing’s queries over Taiwan, which the people described as a major point of discussion during Blinken’s two-day trip to China, underscore how Taiwan sits at the center of the fraught relations between the U.S. and China.
For now, Washington and Beijing are trying to stabilize relations that are tense with disagreements over human rights, a global competition for influence, China’s close partnership with Russia during the war in Ukraine, U.S. technology controls and Taiwan.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made taking control of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as part of its territory, a key element of his “China Dream” of national revival. The leadership views the U.S. as posing increased challenges to that mission as the Biden administration has trumpeted strengthening economic, defense and political links to Taipei—a position that Beijing believes could embolden Taiwanese leaders to move the island further away from the mainland.
Discussions over Taiwan come as the two world powers are attempting to restore lines of communication frozen by a suspected Chinese spy balloon flying over the American heartland early this year.
During Blinken’s trip to Beijing, the first by a U.S. secretary of state in five years, he met with Xi, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Wang Yi, Xi’s top foreign-affairs official. Aside from the Taiwan topic, the top American diplomat and his Chinese counterparts devoted a large chunk of their discussion to how the two nations see and relate to each other, with hours of grievances being read and all the aides turning to the next page in their briefing books at the same time as Qin. The U.S. side also aired grievances but spent less time on it.
The trip is expected to be followed by a series of visits to China by other cabinet-level officials including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and climate envoy John Kerry, according to officials in both capitals.
Foreign Minister Qin also is likely to travel to the U.S. in the coming months, potentially setting the stage for Xi to attend an annual summit of Asia-Pacific leaders to be held in San Francisco in November.
But the process is fraught with landmines. China laid into President Biden last week for describing Xi as a dictator, adding to the discord between the two leaders. The Biden administration is also expected in coming weeks to issue an order setting up a mechanism to screen outbound U.S. investment to prevent American money from financing advanced technology in China. More controls on technology exports are also under consideration, following up on restrictions on the transfer of leading-edge semiconductors and the tools to make them.
And the clock is ticking. The two sides have about six months to put a floor under a relationship that could be challenged even more next year—when a U.S. presidential election is expected to put greater pressure on the Biden team to be tough on China and the Taiwan election could create new sources of tension.
“Blinken’s trip created a window of opportunity to stabilize the relationship and make gains before a very challenging 2024,” said Evan Medeiros, a former senior national-security official in the Obama administration and now a professor at Georgetown University. “If Xi visits the U.S. this fall, then after that all bets are off about the future of the U.S.-China ties.”
As both sides zigzag forward, Beijing is stepping up efforts to prepare the Chinese system for what it sees as increased threats from the U.S.—particularly over issues involving Taiwan.
While Beijing is concerned that Washington will try to boost Lai’s candidacy, U.S. officials are looking out for signs of Chinese interference in the election. Tsai has told U.S. officials that Beijing is likely to intensify cyberattacks and other pressure tactics against the island as the election draws near.
China’s leadership has vowed to eventually take control of Taiwan, by force if necessary. Most recently, Beijing has used economic, diplomatic and military tools to pressure the island’s ruling DPP—which has long advocated a unique Taiwanese identity—into acknowledging that the island and the mainland are part of “one China.”
Meanwhile, U.S. and Taiwan officials are discussing a possible visit this summer by Lai to give him more firsthand familiarity with working with the U.S., people familiar with the planning said. One possibility would be for Lai to stop off in the U.S. if he attends the inauguration of the president of Paraguay, one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies, in August.
An opinion poll released earlier this month shows the presidential race in Taiwan is heating up among the DPP, its main opposition, the China-friendly Kuomintang, and the relatively new Taiwan People’s Party.
Write to Lingling Wei at Lingling.Wei@wsj.com, Charles Hutzler at charles.hutzler@wsj.com and William Mauldin at william.mauldin@wsj.com