In a region where the U.S. has long dominated geopolitics, the
accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations
marks a diplomatic victory for Beijing [photo credit: Saudi Press
Agency]
By moving adroitly and at speed Xi was able to underscore the
sclerotic nature of President Biden’s efforts to re-ignite the JCPOA.
Had the US president done what he had said he would do and quickly
rejoined back in 2021, much of the sheen would have gone off Xi’s
triumph. But Biden dithered and the Iranians stalled, sensing a weakness
and now JCPOA 2.0 is pretty much a dead letter.
Xi presiding over the restoration of diplomatic relations between two
countries who had been at odds for several years nicely counterpoints
America’s failure in Vienna.
The Chinese can rightfully claim a diplomatic victory and MbS will
himself take a bow, perhaps a slightly mocking one in Washington’s
directions. Relations with America are not what they were and in a
multi-polar world the Saudi strongman is well-placed to strengthen
relations with China and Russia.
Iraq, having invested effort, primarily through its previous prime
minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, in helping to bring about reconciliation
will feel quietly pleased at the outcome. As Renad Mansour, Project
Director of the Iraq Initiative at London’s Chatham House comments in
our upcoming podcast on 17 March, diplomatic relations between its
neighbours is good for Iraq, especially in the context of the country
being used as a playground where a regional cold war has been fought
out:
(in) revamping Iraq’s role as a regional player, the government
has realised that some initiative is needed to not be a playground, to
not be reactive but to be proactive, to help heal the wounds and to try
and help demilitarize and reduce tensions. That, in the long term, is in
the interest of all countries in the region, including Iraq.
The biggest loser in all this may turn out to be Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.
He had hoped to keep the Saudis on side in challenging Iran’s regional
efforts at hegemony with the threat of military action and though the
Saudis remain wary of Tehran, diplomatic recognition largely takes that
aim off the table. Netanyahu’s strategy of a Saudi/Israel anti-Iran
nexus was also very firmly linked to his efforts to see Riyadh joining
the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations, something that MbS too
has been keen to move forward on.
However the extraordinary events in Israel since the coalition of
extremists came into government, the violence inflicted on the
Palestinians, the massive protests in the streets of Israel’s cities and
the insecurity and uncertainty that that has caused has driven
normalisation off the road.
The Saudis, after a period of quiescence on the Palestinian front have now been unequivocal in reiterating their terms.
No normalisation without acceptance of the deal they first proffered
back in 2002: the withdrawal of settlements from the West Bank, a
return to the 1967 Green Line and East Jerusalem as the capital of a
fully independent Palestinian state.
So to the list of those accounted winners can be added the
Palestinians who, at a time of greatest need, find Riyadh forthrightly
backing them.