Taiwan Opposition Taps Popular Former Cop in Election That Is Pivotal for U.S., China
Appeal of presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih cuts across party lines
Hou Yu-ih has broad appeal but limited experience dealing with the geopolitical currents steering Taiwan’s future. Photo: Joyu Wang/The Wall Street Journal
TAIPEI—The battlefield in a Taiwanese presidential election that could transform U.S. tensions with China is starting to take shape, as the island’s main opposition party nominated a former policeman with broad appeal but nebulous views on Beijing.
Taiwan’s Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, said Wednesday that it had nominated Hou Yu-ih, a previous head of the national police agency and incumbent mayor, as its candidate for the presidency. In choosing him, the party puts forth a champion who boasts rare appeal across party lines but has limited experience dealing with the geopolitical currents steering Taiwan’s future.
“Our country faces a perilous international situation and domestic conflict,” Hou said after accepting the nomination at Kuomintang headquarters. “We must make a big breakthrough and establish a new order.”
The outcome of the 2024 general elections, scheduled to take place in January, carries heavy implications for political, economic and military dynamics in the Taiwan Strait, the roughly 100-mile-wide body of water that separates Taiwan from China. Whatever choice Taiwanese voters make to replace President Tsai Ing-wen, who is unable to run for re-election because of term limits, will likewise help determine the trajectory of increasingly strained relations between the U.S. and China.
The fate of Taiwan is the most sensitive potential flashpoint in the relationship between the world’s two most powerful nations. Though China’s Communist Party has never held sway on the self-ruled island, Beijing regards it as a part of China and has vowed to take control of it, by force if necessary.
Over the seven years of Tsai’s presidency, Taiwan has forged closer ties with the U.S. at the expense of China. Although the U.S. government doesn’t formally recognize Taiwan as a country, it is obligated to provide the island with arms to defend itself. Support for Taiwan as a democratic bulwark against China is among the few issues that transcend the bitter partisan divide in Washington.
Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party suffered its worst electoral setback in a decade in local elections last year, opening up an opportunity for the KMT, which favors friendlier ties with Beijing.
“The central theme of this election revolves around the issues of peace and war,” said Tsai Jung-hsiang, a political science professor who teaches at Taiwan’s National Chung-Cheng University. “If voters chose a more China-friendly candidate, it would raise questions about the continuity of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Hou is in some respects an unusual choice to represent the KMT. Unlike many senior members of the party, he boasts family roots in Taiwan that predate 1949, the year Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalists fled to the island following defeat by Mao Zedong’s Communist forces in China’s civil war. He also seemed to shy away from overt party politics during his time as mayor of New Taipei City.
Both his ancestral background and his pragmatic reputation make him popular among a wide swath of voters, according to political analysts. Hou switched from Mandarin into the most popular local language at times during his acceptance speech, a pointed nod to local culture at a time when fewer and fewer Taiwanese people identify as Chinese.
But Hou has little experience dealing with either Beijing or Washington, and he has largely shied away taking a stance on China—typically a central issue in Taiwanese presidential elections—until he was pressed to offer one during a recent city council session.
“The Republic of China is our country and Taiwan is our home,” Hou said, referring to Taiwan’s formal name. He rejected the possibility of independence for Taiwan—considered a red line by Beijing—as well as Beijing’s proposal to govern Taiwan under a “One Country, Two Systems” framework like the one imposed in Hong Kong. d Block Choices
Hou appeared to be trying to stake out a moderate position on China relative to other KMT leaders—reflecting polls that show many Taiwanese are skeptical of Beijing’s intentions—though his lack of a record on the topic makes it difficult to say how he would handle the relationship as president, Tsai Jung-hsiang of National Chung-Cheng University and other political analysts said.
Hou is set to face off against Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, a DPP stalwart who recently appeared to back away from a position that some interpreted as being pro-independence and has said he would stick to the path laid about by Tsai in navigating relations with Washington and Beijing.
In securing the nomination, Hou beat out billionaire Terry Gou, the founder of key Apple supplier Foxconn, who has tight ties to China through his business and has been outspoken in arguing that Taiwan should nurture its economic links with its hulking neighbor.
“We want peace; we do not want war. We want economic development; we do not want military confrontations,” Gou said during a campaign stop over the weekend in Kinmen, a small archipelago controlled by Taipei less than three miles from China’s Fujian province.
In a post on his verified Facebook account on Wednesday, Gou hailed Hou as the best choice for the KMT because of his broad public support. The tycoon also vowed to support his rival’s candidacy, an apparent response to speculation that he might try to run as an independent or join a third-party ticket.
Ahead of Hou’s nomination, a few dozen party supporters gathered outside the KMT headquarters, toting Republic of China flags, as police looked on. Across the street, a small number of people protested what they said was an opaque nomination process that favored Hou over Gou.
In a speech announcing the nomination, Eric Chu, the party’s chairman, said the decision was based on scientific data and “shared opinions among party members.”
Julia Chu, a 53-year-old caregiver and supporter for Gou, traveled more than 100 miles from her home town of Taichung to the KMT headquarters in Taipei on Wednesday, saying she believed his business acumen could be applied to running a country.
“I would still vote for Hou Yu-ih, though with tears in my eyes, because we need to unite to remove the DPP from power,” she said.
Shortly after the KMT announcement, former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je also earned a formal nomination from his Taiwan’s People Party. Ko, who founded his centrist party in 2019, has seen his popularity dented in recent months as the TPP performed worse than expected in last year’s local elections.
Recent polling data shows that none of the three party candidates has a significant leading advantage over the competition, suggesting the race will remain on a knife’s edge until Jan. 13, when Taiwan’s 19 millions voters head to the polls.