U.S. Republican infighting shapes American aid to Ukraine
Four GOP groups vie for key role in dealing with Russian invasion
TOKYO -- With Ukraine gearing up for a major counteroffensive against Russian forces, the world is closely watching the development of what could be a turning point of the war triggered by a Russian invasion in February 2022.
But Ukraine's counterattack would not be a Battle of Normandy, the Allied invasion of German-occupied Western Europe during World War II. Even if Ukraine pulls off a major success in pushing back Russian forces and retaking some of the occupied territories, a cease-fire -- let alone a peace deal -- is unlikely to take place anytime soon.
The fate of Ukraine's fight against Russia will greatly hinge on how the internal dynamics of the U.S. Republican Party play out regarding its diplomatic stance on the conflict.
There are three possible scenarios for Ukraine's counteroffensive, according to Western military experts and other pundits. The most desirable scenario for the West would be Ukraine's success in liberating most of the four provinces in eastern and southern Ukraine that Russia annexed last year. Such a development could open the door for the Ukrainian forces to isolate Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014, paving the way for its return.
The worst-case scenario would be Ukraine's failure to recover much of the occupied land, or Russia's success in further expanding the areas it controls. Many experts, however, agree with a former senior U.S. military officer who said the "possibilities" of these two scenarios are not so great.
The most likely outcome will likely be somewhere between the two: Ukraine would drive Russian forces out of some of the occupied territories but fail to restore the prewar status quo. The question is what would happen after this scenario came to pass. The biggest variable would be how long the U.S. would remain committed to Ukraine.
America's military aid to Ukraine has been by far the largest, totaling $46.6 billion over the year through late January, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. That is more than three times larger than the combined amount of aid from the next nine biggest supporters. If Washington's backing fizzled, Ukraine could find itself in serious trouble next year and beyond, even if it succeeded in its counteroffensive.
Washington's policy on Ukraine will be greatly affected by actions taken by the Republican Party, which controls the House of Representatives. While the GOP leadership has made it clear that the party is committed to backing Ukraine, a group of lawmakers close to former President Donald Trump have voiced skepticism about continued military aid to the country.
Some Democratic legislators have also balked at expanding military aid to Ukraine, but the governing party remains loyal to the Biden administration's policy of increasing support for Ukraine. This means the Republicans hold the key to whether Washington will be able to continue its military assistance.
According to Washington insiders, four factions within the GOP are vying for the upper hand on Ukraine policy. One is a group of conservative nationalists. They define U.S. interests very narrowly and oppose any foreign involvement that they do not see as serving U.S. interests. These lawmakers are firmly committed to the very strict and uncompromising "America First" principle, epitomized by Trump.
A second faction is composed of champions of the international order. They generally believe that the U.S. should play the leading role in efforts to maintain the world order based on the rule of law. They are also keen to promote cooperation with allies and international entities. Leading figures in this group include Sen. Mitt Romney, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell also taking this stance on Ukraine policy.
A third camp consists of conservative internationalists, who take a position between the first two. They support U.S. involvement in foreign affairs but place greater importance on national interests. They prefer bilateral accords over multinational cooperation as letting the U.S. take the initiative more easily. Former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley -- both of whom served in the Trump administration -- belong to this group.
The fourth faction is a posse of lawmakers who call for minimizing U.S. involvement in diplomatic and military affairs overseas to prioritize domestic issues. This group is typified by Sen. Rand Paul.
So far, the Republican policy on Ukraine has been led by the group espousing the rules-based international order, with support from many conservative internationalists. The two camps account for 70% to 80% of the Republican members of Congress, according to Washington insiders.
This power balance has ensured the U.S. commitment to Ukraine despite opposition from a small group of lawmakers, especially Trump supporters. But it is not clear how long such a commitment will last.
If Ukraine's counteroffensive fails to produce tangible results, conservative nationalists and anti-involvement advocates may step up their calls for reducing U.S. aid and urging Ukraine to pursue a cease-fire. If the counteroffensive goes well, however, Congress will likely remain committed to Ukraine beyond this year.
The U.S. political climate will start heating up in November as national attention shifts to the 2024 presidential election, with both the Biden administration and Congress becoming ever more sensitive to public sentiment. A recent University of Maryland poll showed the public divided over the amount of U.S. aid to Ukraine, with a slight plurality of respondents, 33%, saying it is too much and 30% saying the current level is appropriate.
One Republican backer of the international order said that if Ukraine is still struggling at the end of the year, that would signal a defeat for the West. The outcome of the looming counteroffensive will go a long way toward determining Washington's support for Ukraine, as well as unity among Western democracies.