[Salon] Arab leaders assert ‘strategic sovereignty’ over Middle East conflict in East conflict in pointed message to West

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3221652/arab-leaders-assert-strategic-sovereignty-over-middle-east-conflict-pointed-message-west?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

Arab leaders assert ‘strategic sovereignty’ over Middle East conflict in pointed message to West

Assad’s return to Arab League and Zelensky’s appearance mark efforts by Arab states to remain diplomatically neutral in the West’s tensions with Russia and China
Saudi Arabia is on a ‘geopolitical offensive’ as it seeks to manage regional conflict and boost Arab engagement and realignment

The Arab world has closed ranks for the first time in more than a decade as it seeks to assert “strategic sovereignty” in a bid to resolve the prolonged wars in the Middle East, while staying diplomatically neutral in the Ukraine war and other conflicts pitting the West against Russia and China. Leaders on Friday gathered for a summit of the 22-member Arab League in Jeddah that was described by analysts as remarkable for its diplomatic “signalling” to the United States in particular, as they welcomed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad – a close ally of Iran and Russia – back into the fold, while simultaneously extending a platform to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Arab League also pushed back against US pressure to accelerate its normalisation of relations with Israel by hosting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and reiterating demands for a two-nation solution. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is received by Deputy Amir of Makkah, Prince Badr Bin Sultan, as he arrives to attend the Arab League Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on May 18, 2023.

The event established three “noes” to political “polarisations, militias and ideologies” and three corresponding “yeses” to “sovereignty, unity and partnership”, he said. Hisham Hellyer, a research fellow of the Centre of Islamic Studies at Britain’s Cambridge University, said the Arab League summit was notable for host Saudi Arabia’s “messaging” aimed at the West, Israel and Syria.
Riyadh, he said, was on a “geopolitical offensive” after emerging from “pariah status in the West” following the brutal murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 by security agents at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.

By inviting Ukraine’s Zelensky, Riyadh brought “the West’s most iconic military-geopolitical leader into some kind of conversation with all Arab leaders”, Hellyer said. Such a move, he noted, was “going to play quite well in different Western capitals, not least in Washington”. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (left) welcoming Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky during the Arab League Summit in
While the gesture was unlikely to reset relations between Saudi Arabia and the West, “it does help, nevertheless”, Hellyer said. Ties had deteriorated last year over Riyadh’s refusal to pump more oil to compensate for the loss of Russian supplies to Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.

London-based analyst Sanam Vakil said Friday’s Arab League summit marked “a new era for Saudi foreign policy” already characterised by its reconciliation with Qatar in January 2021, and recent moves to diplomatically re-engage with arch-rival Iran and its allies, the Syrian regime and Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement. She said this policy was “tied” to Saudi Arabia’s prioritisation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 to diversify and grow its economy away from dependency on oil revenues.

It was also designed to meet the kingdom’s security goals of seeking to “stave off future waves of unrest and instability” like the Arab Spring protests which rocked authoritarian regimes in the Middle East in the early 2010s, she said.

The Arab League summit invitation to Assad, and intensified negotiations to end the war in Yemen between the Houthis and Riyadh-backed government, come on the back of the China-brokered restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March, after seven years of estrangement. Efforts to normalise relations with Syria and bring Assad back into the Arab fold materialised after the deadly earthquake of February 6, analysts said.

“Assad’s coronation is a culmination of years-long efforts by many Arab states to normalise relations with Syria, and reposition themselves as balanced entities to the US on one hand and Russia and China on the other,” said Qutaiba Idlbi, head of the Syria Project at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. Arab leaders pose for a family photo ahead of the Arab League summit in Jeddah,

By limiting US involvement in Syria to the Kurdish-controlled northeast, Washington had left “a vacuum in other parts of the country where Arab states look to Russia and Iran – and Assad by extension – as their partners to shape their Syria policies”, he said. “Along with its de-prioritisation of Middle East policy, the Biden administration is contributing to this regional shift that subsequently accelerated the reintegration of Assad,” Idlbi said.

Vakil said Syria would be a “key test case” for Saudi Arabia’s new diplomatic manoeuvring as it required coordinating key issues such as terror, narcotics trafficking, refugees and Assad himself. Syria also “lies at an intersection” with Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Russia, Turkey and the US.

“These de-escalatory trends present a new direct approach to regional conflict management [which] has created an unprecedented wave of Arab engagement and realignment,” said Vakil, who is director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, a British think tank. Regional security, however, was “still a work in progress”, she said.

“Achieving long-term stability goals requires consistent engagement and the rebuilding of relationships across the Middle East.”