We are
entering the end stage of the
30-year US neocon debacle in
Ukraine. The neocon plan to
surround Russia in the Black
Sea region by NATO has
failed. Decisions now by the
US and Russia will matter
enormously for peace,
security, and wellbeing for
the entire world.
Four
events have shattered the
neocon hopes for NATO
enlargement eastward, to
Ukraine, Georgia, and onward.
The first is
straightforward. Ukraine has
been devastated on the
battlefield, with tragic and
appalling losses. Russia is
winning the war of attrition,
an outcome that was
predictable from the
start but which the neocons
and mainstream media deny till
today.
The
second is the collapsing
support in Europe for the US
neocon strategy. Poland no
longer speaks with Ukraine.
Hungary has long opposed the
neocons. Slovakia has elected
an anti-neocon government. EU
leaders (Macron, Meloni,
Sanchez, Scholz, Sunak, and
others) have
disapproval ratings far
higher than approvals.
The
third is the cut in US
financial support for
Ukraine. The Republican Party
grassroots, several Republican
Presidential candidates, and a
growing number of Republican
members of Congress, oppose
more spending on Ukraine. In
the stop-gap bill to keep the
government running,
Republicans stripped away new
financial support for
Ukraine. The White House has
called for new aid
legislation, but this will be
an uphill fight.
The
fourth, and most urgent from
Ukraine’s point of view, is
the likelihood of a Russian
offensive. Ukraine’s
casualties are in the hundreds
of thousands, and Ukraine has
burned through its artillery,
air defenses, tanks, and
others heavy weapons. Russia
is likely to follow with a
massive offensive.
The
neocons have created utter
disasters in Afghanistan,
Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now
Ukraine. The US political
system has not yet held the
neocons to account, since
foreign policy is carried out
with little public or
Congressional scrutiny to
date. Mainstream media have
sided with the slogans of the
neocons.
Ukraine
is at risk of economic,
demographic and military
collapse. What should the US
Government do to face this
potential disaster?
Urgently,
it should change course.
Britain advises the US to
escalate, as Britain is stuck
with 19th century imperial
reveries. US neocons are
stuck with imperial bravado.
Cooler heads urgently need to
prevail.
President
Joe Biden should immediately
inform President Vladimir
Putin that the US will end
NATO enlargement eastward if
the US and Russia reach a new
agreement on security
arrangements. By ending NATO
expansion, the US can still
save Ukraine from the policy
debacles of the past 30
years.
Biden
should agree to negotiate a
security arrangement of the
kind, though not precise
details, of President
Putin’s proposals of
December 17, 2021.
Biden foolishly refused to
negotiate with Putin in
December 2021. It’s time to
negotiate now.
There
are four keys to an
agreement. First, as part of
an overall agreement Biden
should agree that NATO will
not enlarge eastward, but not
reverse the past NATO
enlargement. NATO would of
course not tolerate Russian
encroachments in existing NATO
states. Both Russia and the
US would pledge to avoid
provocations near Russia’s
borders, including provocative
missile placement, military
exercises, and the like.
Second,
the new US – Russia security
agreement should cover nuclear
weapons. The US unilateral
withdrawal from the
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
in 2002, followed by the
placement of Aegis missiles in
Poland and Romania, gravely
inflamed tensions, which were
further exacerbated by the US
withdrawal from the
Intermediate Nuclear Force
(INF) Agreement in 2019 and
Russia’s suspension of the New
Start Treaty in 2023. Russian
leaders have repeatedly
pointed to US missiles near
Russia, unconstrained by the
abandoned ABM Treaty, as a
dire threat to Russia’s
national security.
Third,
Russia and Ukraine would agree
on new borders, in which the
overwhelmingly ethnic Russian
Crimea and heavily ethnic
Russian districts of eastern
Ukraine would remain part of
Russia. The border changes
would be accompanied by
security guarantees for
Ukraine backed unanimously by
the UN Security Council and
other states such as Germany,
Turkey, and India.
Fourth,
as part of a settlement, the
US, Russia, and EU would
re-establish trade, finance,
cultural exchange, and tourist
relations. It’s certainly
time once again to hear
Rachmaninoff and Tchaikovsky
in US and European concert
halls.
Border
changes are a last resort, and
should be made UN Security
Council auspices. They must
never be an invitation to
further territorial demands,
such as by Russia regarding
ethnic Russians in other
countries. Yet borders
change, and the US has
recently backed two border
changes. NATO bombed Serbia
for 77 days until it
relinquished the
Albanian-majority region of
Kosovo. In 2008, the US
recognized Kosovo as a
sovereign nation. The US
similarly backed South Sudan’s
insurgency to break away from
Sudan.
If
Russia, Ukraine, or the US
subsequently violated the new
agreement, they would be
challenging the rest of the
world. As JFK observed, “even
the most hostile nations can
be relied upon to accept and
keep those treaty obligations,
and only those treaty
obligations, which are in
their own interest.”
The US
neocons carry much blame for
undermining Ukraine’s 1991
borders. Russia did not claim
Crimea until after the
US-backed overthrow of
Ukraine’s President Viktor
Yanukovych in 2014. Nor did
Russia annex the Donbas after
2014, instead calling on
Ukraine to honor the UN-backed
Minsk II agreement, based on
autonomy for the Donbas. The
neocons preferred to arm
Ukraine to retake the Donbas
by force rather than grant the
Donbas autonomy.
The long-term key to peace in Europe is collective security as called for by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). According to OSCE agreements, OSCE member states “will not strengthen their security at the expense of the security of other States.” Neocon unilateralism undermined Europe’s collective security by pushing NATO enlargement without regard to third parties, notably Russia. Europe — including the EU, Russia, and Ukraine — needs more OSCE and less neocon unilateralism as key to lasting peace in Europe.