The Israeli
war on Hamas from a geopolitical perspective
The
devastating attack on Israel by Hamas yesterday and Israel’s declaration of total
war have been the featured news items in Western media today. Some of what the
talking heads are saying to CNN, Euronews and the BBC is perceptive and
valuable, much more so than any of their commentary on the war in Ukraine,
which is my primary focus. I think that
I am impressed not merely because the less you know about any given subject,
the easier it is to take seriously what mainstream presents. No, what I have
heard about the failures of Israeli intelligence on these stations has made
good sense and seems credible.
I ventured
to say a few words about the conflict on WION Indian television earlier today,
because I was given the opportunity to talk about it from the geopolitical
perspective, which got relatively little attention in Western mainstream. The
link to that interview will be posted below when it becomes available.
There are,
incidentally, two markers that would justify giving the geopolitical
perspective more thought. One is the news that the head of the Arab League flew
to Moscow today for talks with Foreign Minister Lavrov. The other is the
statement from an official in the Russia-controlled Donbas that NATO arms
delivered earlier in the year to Ukraine were resold and likely are being used
against Israel in the war there now under way. That brings up the remarks of
Benjamin Netanyahu this past July that the Palestinians were known to have
procured anti-tank weapons, presumably Javelins, from the Ukrainians. That is
not an irrelevancy, because the Israelis will have to move armor into the Gaza
Strip to take control and this type of NATO weaponry could inflict great damage
on IDF personnel and equipment.
*****
Mainstream
commentators with some military experience have pointed out that an attack like
this one must have taken a long time in preparation, perhaps as long as a year.
And so the question arises, why now?
One clue
mentioned by commentators is that it has come just after the Jewish High Holy
Days. That might be a clue if we consider that this Hamas attack is the
greatest threat to Israeli security since the Yom Kippur War back in 1973,
which also was so damaging because of failures by Israeli intelligence to see
it coming.
However, I
believe the timing was driven by something entirely different, something purely
in the domain of geopolitics: the attack was staged to disrupt the ongoing
rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Israel under the direction of
Washington. If the parties succeeded in
concluding the agreement on normalization of relations, then that would put in
jeopardy all hopes of the Palestinians to enjoy the support of their Arab
brethren in the region for realization of their political ambitions for
statehood. Meanwhile, if there should be a Saudi-Israeli agreement, then the
power balance in the region between Iran and Saudi Arabia would shift
significantly in Saudis’ favor, since the conditions they were negotiating with
Washington to make peace with Israel included declaration of a formal security
treaty with the United States and access to U.S. nuclear technology up to and
including enrichment of uranium. In other words, the Saudis would close in on
the current Iranian advantage of being a hair’s breadth away from possessing
bombs.
Under
present conditions of all-out war by Israel on Hamas and the prospect of a
bloody incursion into Gaza by the Israeli Defense Force, it is unthinkable for
Saudi Arabia to proceed with normalization of relations. This means, in effect, that a serious blow
has been dealt to the foreign policy of the Biden administration. This failure
comes on top of the Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco. The net effect will not only be felt once the
electoral campaign for the presidency gets underway later this autumn, but will
be felt immediately insofar as it weakens the president’s hand in his ongoing
arm-wrestling with Congress over the 2024 budget and in particular over funding
for Ukraine. If the allegations that NATO weapons have come into the hands of
Hamas via Ukraine, then the consequences of uncontrolled delivery of weapons to
Kiev will be on display for everyone to see.
Failure
breeds failures, and you cannot dress up this new pig in the Middle East policy
of Biden and Blinken and Sullivan with lipstick.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023