Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meeting with Egyptian President
Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Sunday 15 October in Egypt to discuss Hamas’
attack against Israel [photo credit: Egypt Gov]
The displacement proposal does not only show complete ignorance of
Egyptian and Palestinian politics, but it also reeks of orientalist
conceptions of the Arab world. Indeed, the premise that Israel can
simply displace the civilian population of the Gaza Strip with little
consequence is reminiscent of the post-World War 1 machinations of the
British and the French as they carved up the Middle East, created states
and moved its people at will, laying down the foundation of much of the
conflict we see today. In this logic the Palestinians will simply move
when coerced and the Egyptians will accept their displacement if asked
by the regime’s Western allies, as if both sides were inanimate objects
to be moved at will, not living communities with their own internal
dynamics that might prove resistant to the wishes of Israel and the
United States, regardless of how closely allied the Sisi regime is with
either.
Indeed, even a rudimentary understanding of the dynamics of Egyptian
politics should have halted the idea immediately it was floated, before
it was ever made public. Opposition to the mass transfer of Palestinians
to Sinai runs deep in Egypt and it was instrumental in the propaganda
campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood in Mohammed Morsi’s brief year
in power. For example, the Brotherhood was accused
of having plans to give Sinai to the Palestinians, a rumour that the
deep state used to whip up a nationalist frenzy against them. This
frenzy was used to build popular support for the Egyptian participation
of the Gaza blockade and even to level legal charges
against the late President Morsi, who was charged with colluding with
Hamas. Hence, opposition to this scheme is a fundamental part of the
regime`s legitimising narrative. Breaking with it would be catastrophic
for Sisi’s popularity, coming at a time of deep crisis for his
government, with the country undergoing a dramatic debt crisis and a
presidential election looming in December. Indeed, the war is coinciding with another expected devaluation
of the pound, after it lost half of its value between January 2022 and
January 2023; inflation as of September hit a record high of 38%.
These domestic factors are massive hurdles to a foreign policy gambit
involving the mass transfer of Palestinians from Gaza to Egyptian soil,
even if the regime is offered reprieve from its debt to do so. Indeed,
if such a debt easement deal is even on the table, and there are some reports that it is, it would require international support especially from the Gulf, which owns 25.1%
of Egyptian foreign debt. There is no reason that support like this is
forthcoming. All of the costs of removing the Palestinians are expected
to be incurred and somehow absorbed by Egypt and other states with the
Israelis not offering much in return even as their colonisation of
Palestinian land, including the West Bank, continues at speed.
The Sinai relocation proposal, an ethnic cleansing on an enormous
scale, seems to assume that Sisi is operating in a vacuum and is somehow
able to make decisions without needing to negotiate with his popular
base, already deeply indoctrinated in the regime`s conspiracy theories
which portray Hamas as a mere extension of the Brotherhood, while fear
spreads among his base that Sinai would be given away to the
Palestinians. Ironically, it is the regime`s international backers that
are now proposing this fantastical idea with no consideration of the
catastrophic domestic impact for their ally Sisi. Egypt can accept a few
thousand Palestinians as refugees on humanitarian grounds, but not on
the scale that would alter the fundamental demographics of the Gaza
Strip.
The other side of the equation is the Palestinians, who are once
again dehumanised and treated like pawns on a grand geopolitical chess
board. Following the logic of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich,
who claimed
that "Is there a Palestinian history or culture? There is none, there
is no such thing as a Palestinian people," the proposed safe corridors
assumes that the Palestinians will simply agree, under the threat of
Israeli bombing, to be removed from their lands yet again. This, of
course, is not a given, and one would assume that being forcibly removed
with no promise of return will not sit well with the people of Gaza.
One only needs to remember that most Gazans are refugees and descendants
of refugees from previous wars; they are aware, too, of the treatment
that Palestinians have received over the decades in other Arab countries
with little rights or a path to citizenship.
These basic flaws in the plan do not even begin to consider the
logistical difficulties in implementing the transfer of more than 2
million Palestinians in a short period of time. The real solution to the
conflict, which Israel, the United States, and the EU seem to
collectively ignore is a comprehensive peace that would end Israeli
occupation of Palestinian lands. Unfortunately, the proposal of safe
corridors, a euphemism for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians shows
how inept Western policy making is when it comes to the
Palestine-Israeli conflict. Indeed, it seems that the past century with
all of its mistakes has made little impact on the ability of the
international community to understand the fundamentals of not only Arab
politics but Israeli intentions.