Q:
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Attorney General Merrick
Garland and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas traveled to
Mexico City on Oct. 4 to meet with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador
and other top officials to discuss migration and the trafficking of
weapons and drugs including fentanyl. What did the two countries’
officials accomplish during the meetings? How well are the United States
and Mexico cooperating on measures to fight the illegal trafficking of
drugs and weapons, and how much political will exists in the two
countries to make policy changes? How will the presidential campaigns in
both countries affect their cooperation on migration as well as the
trafficking of weapons and drugs?
A:
Earl Anthony Wayne, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico and public policy
fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and
co-chair of its Mexico Institute Advisory Board:
“The
United States and Mexico are trying to maneuver through seriously
difficult challenges involving migration, public security, border
management and trade, while both countries prepare for presidential and
congressional elections in 2024. Several issues are already hot-button
topics for Republicans, with some politicians offering unrealistic and
dangerous solutions on drug trafficking and migration. Mexico’s
president fuels concerns with sharp criticisms of U.S. policies and
dubious assertions, including that deadly fentanyl is not produced in
Mexico, despite much contrary evidence. Over 70,000 Americans died from
fentanyl overdoses in 2022, and southwest border fentanyl seizures rose
more than 500 percent since fiscal year 2020.
Last
week’s High-Level Security Dialogue sought to demonstrate that
constructive cooperation is underway to manage the massive flow of
migrants again headed northward and to slow trafficking of fentanyl into
the United States and illegal arms trafficking into Mexico. U.S. and
Mexican ministers pledged reinforced collaboration, praised ongoing
cooperation and tried to solidify understanding for the work ahead.
Anti-crime cooperation has improved since 2021. Current collaboration on
migration is essential. However, when Mexico’s security minister denied
that fentanyl is produced in Mexico, the statement highlighted that
misunderstanding remains. Much work is still required to solidify the
law enforcement, intelligence and justice collaboration needed to take
down cross-border criminal networks. Fentanyl seizures at the border
rose more than 80 percent in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2023,
while migrant border encounters have increased again. Both governments
need to demonstrate convincing results and skillful management to avoid
serious damage to bilateral relations in the year ahead.”
A: Stephanie Brewer, director for Mexico at the Washington Office on Latin America:
“Contradictions
by and between the U.S. and Mexican governments were on full display
during last week’s High-Level Security Dialogue, including insistence by
Mexico’s public security minister that fentanyl is not produced in
Mexico, as well as U.S. announcements of counterproductive border and
deportation measures that contrast with prior Biden administration
messaging or decisions. The delegations shared data points such as
quantities of drugs seized; less evident were signs of new initiatives
or evolution in addressing collusion, impunity and other structural
factors that enable organized crime in Mexico. Meanwhile, as reporters
in both countries pressed officials on the unchecked growth of the power
and roles of Mexico’s military—implicated in a series of human rights
scandals in recent months —U.S. officials continued a pattern of
avoiding criticism of the military or questions about the health of
Mexico’s democracy. The upcoming electoral season will only increase
pressure for authorities to announce short term results or policies that
project an image of being ‘tough’ on drugs and border control, which
tend not to align with the measures needed to actually advance the
well-being of the affected populations.”
A: Gary J. Hale, nonresident fellow in drug policy and Mexico studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy:
“The
bilateral meeting recently held in Mexico City will not likely reduce
production of fentanyl or human trafficking by Mexico’s transnational
criminal organizations (TCOs). President López Obrador (AMLO) denied on
March 10 that Mexican TCOs produce fentanyl when he said, ‘Here, we do
not produce fentanyl, and we do not have consumption of fentanyl.’
Mexican officials further muddled the issue last week by contradicting
each other about whether fentanyl is produced in Mexico or simply
transshipped through the country. The U.S.-Mexico Bicentennial Framework
for Security, Public Health and Safe Communities of 2021 accedes to
AMLO’s desire that more emphasis be given to the demand side of the
threat assessment formulation by focusing on drug abuse and
rehabilitation, and attributes lesser importance on the supply side by
failing to vigorously confront TCOs. By focusing on demand, the
framework has created conditions for TCOs to continue their crimes with
little interference. When the framework and high-level meetings are held
against the restrictions that Mexico has placed on U.S. law enforcement
agencies operating in Mexico, diplomacy has not translated into
meaningful cooperation at the operational level. The Morena party
presidential candidate is favored to be elected and will likely continue
AMLO’s policies, which turn a blind eye to TCO drug production and
allow for those cartels to move continuous waves of migrants through
Mexico en route the United States. Similarly, the results of the U.S.
election will not affect Mexico’s position, regardless of the proposed
military intervention that hawkish U.S. lawmakers are threatening.``
A: Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution:
“Despite
the continual sotto voce approach of the Biden administration, Mexico’s
anti-crime cooperation remains inadequate. Even during the High-Level
Security Dialogue (HLSD), Mexican Interior Minister Rosa Rodríguez
repeated López Obrador’s falsity that no fentanyl is synthetized in
Mexico. Yes, with U.S. intelligence, Mexico did arrest and recently
extradite one of the leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel, Ovidio Guzmán, to
the United States. But extraditions cannot distract attention from the
lack of other needed and collapsed aspects of cooperation—most
importantly, a meaningful and effective commitment by Mexico to
dismantle drug-trafficking and criminal organizations and a return to
joint on-the ground operations by Mexican and U.S. law enforcement
agents. A proposal by the Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Bárcena to
establish within the newly launched Global Coalition to Address
Synthetic Drug Threats a subgroup to trace precursor smuggling, could
put necessary pressure on China to act against trafficking. But
smuggling before Mexico’s borders shouldn’t be because of Mexico’s lack
of will and capacity to track precursor and drug movements within
Mexico, let alone to conduct sting operations and dismantle networks.
The introduction of migration discussions to the HLSD agenda is not a
good development. While the issue is a political priority for the Biden
administration, combining the anti-crime discussions with migration only
reinforces a belief in the Mexican government that it can continue to
balk at anti-crime efforts as long as it reduces the flow of migrants to
the United States.”
A:
Raúl Benítez Manaut, researcher at the Center for Research on North
America at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM):
“The
visit of high-ranking national security officials from the United
States last week demonstrates the difficult and tense state of bilateral
relations, principally in the drug arena. The United States insists
that fentanyl is manufactured in clandestine laboratories in Mexico. The
Mexican government contradicts that. The country’s army and navy have
statistics of the labs in Sinaloa, Jalisco and Michoacán, in which
they’ve destroyed labs. It’s regularly mentioned that the predominant
criminal groups in Mexico, the Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New
Generation Cartel, own those labs. But President López Obrador has
denied that fentanyl is produced in Mexico. In the meeting on Oct. 4,
the North American team insisted that it will continue to detain ‘los
chapitos,’ to continue with the decapitation of the Sinaloa Cartel.
Nevertheless, the same strategy is not applied toward the Jalisco
Cartel. An important reflection that must be done is that studies of
those who have died because of violence in Mexico have increased, while
deaths from drug use in the United States have also increased. This
tells us that the strategy is a mess, if we take into account the
victims due to the drug war in Mexico and the U.S. government’s
inability to reduce consumption. Finally, it must be mentioned that both
countries will have presidential elections next year. The issue of
drugs is a substantial part of both campaigns, especially in the United
States, where Republicans face very real pressure to harden the
discourse against Mexico. This foreshadows a 2024 with great
factionalism in the issues of security for both governments.”