Saving the Israelis and Palestinians from Themselves
By Patrick N. Theros - October 20, 2023
The
still unfolding human catastrophe in Gaza confirms that the Israelis
and Palestinians, left to their own devices, are intrinsically incapable
of ending their eight decade long war. The world’s great powers, led by
the United States need to impose a settlement by coercion, if
necessary. Why? Because they caused the tragedy and letting it fester it
will harm their vital interests.
Some three decades back I told a
joint Israeli-Palestinian peace process meeting that they had better
resolve their dispute quickly before their anger turned into the kind of
hatred I had seen between Turks and Armenians. That prediction has now
become reality. Two peoples, both claiming a single small piece of earth
as their exclusive homeland and denying the humanity of the other with
religiously driven messianic fury, cannot end this conflict by
themselves. American bromides that “the parties should sit down and
solve it between themselves” has only resulted in more carnage. Unless
we accept this reality, tens of thousands more innocents will continue
to die in vain.
Sadly, this mutual hatred derives from the fact
that both peoples were pushed into an existential confrontation by
outside forces over which they had no control. The Holocaust, an
unspeakable crime perpetrated by Europeans, drove the Jews to Palestine
in turn displacing and subjugating several million other people, the
Palestinians, who had lived on that land for generations. Fifty six
years of occupation have erased the early promises of compromise and
symbiosis. Those seeking compromise on both sides have had their voices
silenced by the fanatics. Mutual hatreds have made the ethnic cleansing
of the other, the bottom line for each side. They have left no room for
compromise. Sadly, if there were ever a good example of the adage “If
you seek revenge, dig two graves” the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fits
it.
The great powers of the world, led by the United States, can
impose a solution, but it will probably require coercion. “Why should
they bother?” one might ask? They should bother because these same
powerful countries created the conflict, exacerbated it, and will suffer
from it if they leave it unresolved. The British governments that
separately (and secretly) promised a land which they did not own to two
different peoples, fomented conflict between them to sustain control and
then alternately fought both Arabs and Jews, deserve a special level in
Dante’s Inferno. A European country, Germany, created the Holocaust,
with the active or tacit support of many other Europeans. The United
States and the Soviet Union, the first two major powers to recognize the
Jewish state, converted the conflict into a tool to use against each
other during the Cold War. Many Europeans today support Israel out of
guilt for their silence, or worse, during the Holocaust. Arab
governments exploited Palestinian suffering to prop up their
authoritarian regimes. What we called the Third World focused on Israel
to fire up their campaigns against colonialism. Given what both
Palestinians and Israelis have lost, one can empathize with their fears
and irrationality; the outside powers that created, exacerbated and
exploited the conflict have no such excuse. The outside powers created
the conflict and have both moral and practical obligations to end it.
Left
unattended, the conflict will claim thousands more lives, erode
external support for Israel’s survival, and widen the conflict in a
region vital to the world’s economy. (Even Donald Trump has joined
left-wing Democrats in blaming Netanyahu.) Europe has a special
responsibility, not just to history but to its own people, to resolve
the conflict. If EU leaders cannot now cope with the waves of migrants
crossing the Mediterranean, what happens when two million Gazans join
the surge? Nor should we ignore the very real possibility that the
violence can spread across the region creating a worldwide energy crisis
as happened under similar circumstances in 1973.
Israel has two
options in Gaza, (1) conquer Gaza inflicting horrible human loss and
then occupy it indefinitely paying an incredible price in blood and
treasure, or (2) reduce Gaza to rubble, and cut its losses by declaring
victory, withdrawing, reimposing a blockade and waiting for Hamas, or
someone just as lethal, to restart the bloody cycle. Neither option has
an end game.
Let us imagine that the US rallied a coalition of
major world powers to stop the carnage, secured a UN Resolution creating
a receivership for Gaza, and assembled an international military force
(‘peace-making’, not ‘peace keeping’) strong enough to demilitarize Gaza
and guarantee the security of both Gazans and Israelis against future
incursion. The interventionist powers could offer Gaza a bright economic
future through trade with Europe, with appropriate sweeteners from the
EU, and the exploitation of already verified natural gas fields in
Gaza’s Exclusive Economic Zone. The UN and the international community
could guarantee democratic self-rule in Gaza and future international
recognition. Israel would instinctively oppose the deal, but the US
could make it clear that this is in Israel's interest, whether it likes
it or not. Russia might veto, so this might need UNGA approval. China
might well support such a project given that its primary interest, the
unfettered flow of oil, coincides with that of the US and Europe. Why
should China and the US reject an opportunity to work together in their
common interests?
Coordinated Great Power intervention has a
mixed history. It is not a panacea, but it can prevent a disaster as in
the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina. More successfully, US coercion fostered
the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. If successful, could not a Gazan
intervention provide a blueprint for resolving the larger
Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Besides, what's the alternative?