Toxic Netanyahu could drag Biden down in his fight for political survival
The
US president now ‘owns’ this war. Israel’s prime minister has no exit
strategy and if he gets the long conflict he wants, the US may be drawn
in ever deeper
Sat 21 Oct 2023
Is
that it? Is that the best western leaders can do as the midnight hour
approaches? Kindly Joe Biden doled out sympathy and dollars in a
seven-hour visit to Israel. Tiny amounts of aid are dribbling into Gaza.
Two hostages out of 200 have been released. But there is no ceasefire,
no “humanitarian pause” or safe zone, no end to the bombing, no
long-term plan. Fears of a widening conflagration grow.
Instead there is reluctant, nonetheless shaming western acquiescence in the imminent, full-scale Israeli military onslaught on Gaza
– with its understandable but unachievable aim: the permanent
eradication of Hamas. With more than 4,000 Palestinians lying dead,
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “team”, to use Biden’s jarring term,
should be on a red card. It has just received a green light.
Western political disarray, confusion and tentativeness in the face of this unfolding disaster are dismaying. Visitors Rishi Sunak and
Germany’s Olaf Scholz, sandwiching Biden, played to audiences at home
and, gentle words of caution aside, otherwise played along with
Netanyahu. Squabbling senior officials have rendered the EU an almost irrelevant spectator.
In
the UN security council, tattered guardian of outraged international
law, France and everyone else backed a draft resolution to pause
hostilities and overturn Israel’s evacuation order in northern Gaza. But
the US vetoed, saying it would tie Israel’s hands. Pathetically, the UK abstained along with Russia – an unfortunate pairing.
A
great deal of diplomacy is ongoing behind the scenes. The biggest fear
is that if Israel attacks, Hezbollah in Lebanon will open a second
front. Instability is spreading to Iraq and Syria.
US pledges of more bombs and bullets for Israel enrage the Muslim
world. Meanwhile nobody, not even Biden, knows what is Netanyahu’s
post-Hamas, postwar plan. That’s because there almost certainly isn’t
one.
The 7 October terrorist atrocities that
claimed 1,400 Israeli lives were horrifying. Few dispute Israel has a
legal and moral right to defend itself. But Arab leaders, fearing their
people’s wrath, are right to say collective punishment of civilians is
not the way to do it. The UN, too, demands a ceasefire. Without it, more
tragedies like the Anglican al-Ahli hospital blast are inevitable. Despite what dissembling British officials say, there is no such thing as a “calm and measured” invasion.
Despite what dissembling British officials say, there is no such thing as a ‘calm and measured’ invasion
Israel’s
war cabinet has set four objectives for “Operation Swords of Iron”:
destroying Hamas militarily, eliminating the terrorist threat in Gaza,
resolving the hostage crisis, and defending state borders and citizens.
But officials admit they are still debating what comes after. They say
renewed occupation is a non-starter. But an exit strategy appears absent.
An invasion “will mean confronting Hamas on its home turf [and] is likely to be a drawn-out, bloody affair,” the independent International Crisis Group warned.
“Sustainably ridding Gaza of all manifestations of what Israelis see as
terrorism and many Palestinians call resistance will be impossible
absent wider political change.”
So who might
run Gaza, assuming Hamas really is definitively deposed? A UN-appointed
administrator backed by peacekeepers? A sort of international High
Representative, as in Bosnia? It is suggested control could be restored
to the Palestinian Authority, ousted by Hamas in 2007. But the PA is
weak, unloved. For starters, President Mahmoud Abbas would have to make way for new elected leaders.
It’s
unclear in any case how much leverage flailing western leaders can
exert over any postwar settlement. Biden’s and Sunak’s seemingly
unconditional support for Israel disqualifies them as peace brokers. The
Arab League is again demanding revived talks to create a Palestinian state. But more than ever, Israel isn’t listening.
Biden has made three basic Middle East errors
since 2021. Focusing on domestic issues and China, he tried to ignore
the region. Not possible. Second, he climbed aboard Donald Trump’s
Abraham accords and the Israel-Arab normalisation caravan. Fatally,
those “historic” deals tried to bypass Palestinian conflict.
Third, Biden failed to come down hard when Netanyahu,
a big Trump fan, mounted his own Capitol Hill-ish anti-democracy coup,
allied himself with far-right zealots determined to annex the West Bank
and undercut US efforts to defuse tensions with Iran. Biden gave him the
cold shoulder but did little else.
That frost has now perforce melted, but not because Israel’s leader has suddenly changed. Netanyahu is fighting desperately to survive.
When Biden got off Air Force One in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, he went to
shake hands. But Netanyahu grabbed him in a needy bear hug. Dangerous,
deeply unpopular, two-faced, toxic, that’s Netanyahu today.
It’s
no exaggeration to say he could drag Biden down with him. After the
initial shock brought them back together, the two leaders are again on
diverging paths. Far from pursuing de-escalation, Netanyahu is predicting a “long war”. In fact, it seems that’s what he wants.
“This
is in no one’s interest save Netanyahu, who likely sees the end of his
government coming with the end of the upcoming battle with Hamas,”
author David Rothkopf commented. Prolonged conflict, inflicting more civilian casualties and greater regional instability, could suck in the US ever more deeply.
Empathy-oozing
Biden, trapped by his blind spots and his good nature, now “owns” this
war. If the situation deteriorates further, there will be no escaping
it. He already has one long war to fight, with Russia in Ukraine. He
potentially faces another, cold or hot, with China. Like circling
vultures, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, chummy in Beijing last week, smugly watch.
Whoever
is to blame – and it’s certainly not all his fault – this catastrophe
is unfolding on Biden’s watch. Trump and GOP cronies lurk; the US 2024
presidential vote is barely one year away. It’s a bitter thought that
Netanyahu, who Biden did so much to save last week, would be among those
cheering his defeat.