Schröder: In 2022 I received a request from Ukraine as to whether I could mediate between Russia and Ukraine. The question was whether I could convey a message to Putin. Someone would also come along who had a very close relationship with the Ukrainian president himself. That was Rustem Umyerov, Ukraine's current defense minister. He is a member of the Crimean Tatar minority. Then the question was: How to end the war?
How?
There
are five points. First: Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership.
Ukraine cannot meet the conditions anyway. Second: the problem of
language. The Ukrainian parliament has abolished bilingualism. That has
to be changed. Third: Donbass remains part of Ukraine. But Donbass needs
greater autonomy. A working model would be that of South Tyrol. Fourth:
Ukraine also needs security guarantees. The United Nations Security
Council plus Germany should provide these guarantees. Fifth: Crimea. How long has Crimea been Russian? For Russia, Crimea is more than just a region, but part of its history. The war could be ended if geopolitical interests were not at play.
And international law.
Yes, but this is not just a legal question. The
only people who could settle the war against Ukraine are the Americans.
At the peace negotiations in March 2022 in Istanbul with Rustem
Umjerov, the Ukrainians did not agree to peace because they were not
allowed to. They first had to ask the Americans about everything they
discussed. I had two conversations with Umyerov, then a one-on-one
conversation with Putin and then with Putin's envoy. Umyerov opened the
conversation with greetings from Zelensky. The Austrian model or the 5+1
model was proposed as a compromise for Ukraine's security guarantees.
Umjerow thought that was good. He also showed willingness on the other
points. He also
said that Ukraine does not want NATO membership. He also said that
Ukraine wants to reintroduce Russian in Donbass. But in the end nothing
happened. My impression: Nothing could happen because everything else
was decided in Washington. That was fatal. Because the result will now
be that Russia will be tied more closely to China, which the West should
not want.
And the Europeans?
You
have failed. There would have been a window in March 2022. Ukrainians
were ready to talk about Crimea. Even the Bild newspaper confirmed this
at the time.
( Gerhard Schröder shows a page from the BILD newspaper with the title “Peace finally in sight?”
It says: “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj (44) himself had
already indicated concessions for negotiations: he is no longer
insisting on NATO - His country's accession, he told the US broadcaster
ABC. And he was also ready for a 'compromise' about Crimea and the
breakaway provinces in Donbass. 'In every negotiation, my goal is to end
the war with Russia,' he said Zelenskyj to BILD.”)
According to Ukraine, the Bucha massacres committed by the Russians led to the end of the negotiations.
Nothing was known about Butscha during the talks with Umjerov on March 7th and 13th. I
think the Americans didn't want the compromise between Ukraine and
Russia. The Americans believe they can keep the Russians down. Now it is
the case that two actors, China and Russia, who are limited by the USA , are joining forces. Americans
believe they are strong enough to keep both sides in check. In my
humble opinion, this is a mistake. Just look at how torn the American
side is now. Look at the chaos in Congress.
The Americans overestimated themselves?
That's what I'm expecting.
Do you think your peace plan can be resumed?
Yes. And the only ones who can initiate this are France and Germany.
But how can you trust the Russians? In January 2022 it was said that the Russians did not want a war with Ukraine. Then,
when the Russians invaded Donbass, it was said that the Russians didn't
want to go to Kiev. All of these promises have been broken. Why
shouldn't we be afraid that the Russians will go further and further?
We
have no threat. This fear of the Russians coming is absurd. How are
they supposed to defeat NATO, let alone occupy Western Europe?
They have almost come to Kiev.
What
do the Russians want? Status quo in Donbass and Crimea. Not more. I
think it was a fatal mistake that Putin started the war. It is clear to
me that Russia feels threatened. Look: Turkey is a NATO member. There
are missiles that can reach Moscow directly. The USA wanted to bring
NATO to Russia's western border, with Ukraine as a new member, for
example. All of this felt like a threat to the Russians. There are also
irrational points of view. I don't want to deny that. The Russians
responded with a mix of both: fear and forward defense. That's why no
one in Poland, the Baltics, and certainly not in Germany - all NATO
members, by the way - has to believe they are in danger. The Russians would not start a war with any NATO member.
Good,
but then in this logic it also means: There is no threat of escalation,
then we can continue to supply weapons if the Russians do not attack
us.
If
you combine that with an offer, you can do that. We Germans have also
delivered a lot - to the delight of the American and German arms
industries. Why did Scholz and Macron not combine the arms deliveries
with an offer to talk? Macron and Scholz are the only ones who can talk to Putin. Chirac and I did the same thing during the Iraq War. Why can't support for Ukraine be combined with an offer to talk to Russia? The arms deliveries are not a solution for eternity. But no one wants to talk. Everyone
is sitting in trenches. How many more people have to die? It's a bit
like the Middle East. Who are the victims on one side and on the other?
Poor people who lose their children. None of the people who matter are
moving. The only one who got anything done, even though he is always
vilified, was Erdogan with his grain agreement. This really bothers me.
The
question remains whether Putin even wants to negotiate. Kremlin
insiders told us that Putin certainly wanted to conquer Kiev, but had
overestimated Russia's capabilities.
I don't know that. Look: There are two people who are important in Moscow. Putin,
the most important, and Medvedev. The latter has its own influence on
Russian society. He is Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council. Nobody
in the West wants to hear it: No matter who is in power, there is a
conviction in Russia that the West wants to expand further with NATO,
namely into the post-Soviet space. Keyword: Georgia and Ukraine. No one
at the head of Russia will allow this. This threat analysis may be
emotional, but it is real in Russia. The West must understand this and accept compromises accordingly, otherwise peace will be difficult to achieve.