Cristiano Ronaldo applauds Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman at an
event to announce the first ever Esports World Cup [photo credit: SPA]
Saudi media has been focussing on MbS’s economic reforms and the Riyadh Season, which started on 28 October and is billed as "one of the world’s largest winter entertainment events".
Highlights include The Phantom of the Opera,
the Ladies Golf European Tour, and the Battle of the Baddest, "an
entertainment boxing match between top tier talents Tyson Fury and
Francis Ngannou to create a memorable and an exciting experience locally
and world-wide."
No mention, naturally, that one of the leading stars of the Season pulled out on account of the situation in Gaza, Egyptian comic actor Mohamed Salam.
Of course the regime has not been able to ignore the situation in
Palestine completely. In public fora where the war has been discussed
the Saudi regime, like other governments, has tried hard to present
itself as statesmanlike in its approach to the conflict and deeply
concerned about human rights and international law.
At the Baker Institute on 7 October veteran diplomat Prince Turki Al Faisal made a speech
blasting both Hamas for its onslaught as well as the long held policies
of successive Israeli governments that he said helped lead to the
current bloody situation.
“I condemn Israel for funnelling Qatari money to Hamas, the terrorist group as defined by Israel” he added.
The only reason Prince Turki would have made this outlandish claim, which has been echoed in Israeli media,
is because MbS ordered him to do so. And that would be because, once
again, MbS has been left seething with jealousy after being thoroughly
upstaged by Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim who has won international acclaim for
his role brokering hostage releases and Hamas talks, just like he
upstaged MbS in 2020 with the Taliban peace agreement.
“I’m pleased to say that Qatar is becoming an essential party and stakeholder in the facilitation of humanitarian solutions” tweeted
(in English) Tzachi Hanegbi, Netanyahu’s National Security Advisor on
October 25. “Qatar’s diplomatic efforts are crucial at this time.”
For MbS such accolades from the Israelis bestowed elsewhere are likely to be the hardest aspect of the war so far.
During MbS's telephone conversation with President Joe Biden - the
first in the three years since Biden became President - the Saudi Press
Agency (SPA) reported
that MbS, perhaps trying to reclaim the moral high ground, underscored
the need to comply with international humanitarian law and urged a
return to the peace process.
At the UN Security Council in New York on 24 October the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan called for an immediate ceasefire and a lifting of the blockade.
But as in Western countries it would be a grave mistake to take
pro-Palestinian statements by Saudi and other Arab leaders at face value
because as Dennis Ross, a former senior US official involved in Middle
East peace talks, wrote recently for the New York Times,
every senior Arab official he has spoken with since the war began is
hoping Israel will end Hamas’ rule in Gaza. As a result such statements
should be seen for what they are: a PR exercise intended solely for
public consumption and as a backside covering exercise against future
charges of complicity in Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing.
Behind closed doors, MbS has long since placed all his chips on
Israel and believes - most likely correctly - that his own future and
that of Israel are intimately intertwined.
His worst fear now is that having put all his eggs in the Israeli basket the Israelis could somehow manage to lose the war.
In order to try and make sure this does not happen, in private MbS is
ready to go to any lengths to show support for Israel, whether that
means a bloody IDF ground assault in Gaza or ethnically cleansing the
Palestinians into the Sinai, although as Maged Mandour explained in our
newsletter of 16 October even MbS understands for President Sisi this would likely amount to the political equivalent of slitting his own throat.
In order to try and persuade everyone in Saudi Arabia to think as he
does, MbS has directed the Saudi security apparatus and propaganda
machine to work overtime.
Any kind of public _expression_ of pro-Palestinian sentiment in the
Kingdom, whether a tweet, post or video, is banned and liable to lead to
immediate arrest.
Saudi Islamic scholars have informed
the population that citizens should stop discussing Gaza. "Leaders,"
these scholars say "know the issue better than you" and "you are not
qualified and have nothing to offer... your analyses are burdensome...
Trust [MbS]."
Spies at the Etidal Centre, Saudi state surveillance headquarters, have been instructed to track down as many supporters of Hamas and other Palestinian movements as they can.
Those few who are known to be affiliated with Hamas who are not
already in prison have long since been expelled from the country, along
with many other leading Saudi scholars and thinkers.
Meanwhile Saud Al Qahtani’s army of electronic flies energetically
promotes pro-Israeli accounts and well known pro-MbS Saudi media figures
like Saud Al Shammari have appeared on Israeli TV laughing and making light of the conflict.
As Sami Hamdi observed in Monday’s podcast, Saudi-controlled Al Arabiya News conducted an aggressive interview with Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal asking whether he would now apologise to Israel.
Regime-controlled social media accounts have launched strident attacks on the Palestinians, urging Netanyahu to stop at nothing to destroy Gaza, even if it means using a nuclear bomb.
As a result Jared Kushner, son-in-law and ex-adviser to the former President, was able recently to tell Fox News Saudi Arabia is “safer” for American Jews than US college campuses.
It would be a mistake however to interpret the total absence of
public criticism of Israel as meaning that popular opinion in the
Kingdom really lies with the Israelis.
On the contrary, in reality almost everyone in Saudi Arabia is
pro-Palestine, so much so that it is safe to say that if there was
freedom in the Kingdom not only would massive demonstrations occur on a
scale comparable to what we have seen recently in Yemen and other countries, many Saudis would likely be ready to leave immediately and attempt to join Hamas in Palestine.
Choking off all legitimate outlets for pro-Palestinian sentiment may
serve MbS’s political goals in the short term, but it also raises the
possibility of desperate acts of violence in the Kingdom in the future,
whether against the government, MbS himself or foreigners living there.
US government travel advice recently raised the terror threat to “Reconsider travel” and US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin has warned of escalation across the region.
“In fact, what we’re seeing … is the prospect of a significant
escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the
region,” Austin told ABC’s “This Week” programme.