07
NOV
2023
The Ukrainian Chief of Staff Valery Salusnyj openly admitted last week in an article for the magazine Economist that Ukraine cannot win the war under the current circumstances. Salusny compared the current military situation on the Ukrainian-Russian front with the military stalemate at the trenches of the First World War. The stalemate can only be overcome by a military-technological leap that gives Ukraine the decisive advantage over the Russian armed forces. Long-requested weapons such as long-range missiles or US type F-16 fighter jets were no longer sufficient, says Salushnyj; the F-16, for example, could now be switched off at an early stage by the significantly improved Russian air defense systems S-400. 1] In order to get the helm around, a combination of several state-of-the-art weapon systems is necessary. Salilnyj calls, among other things, for more modern drones, means of electronic warfare at the most advanced level in order to be able to destroy Russian drones, for example, but also innovative device to better detect mines. 2] If the military-technological leap does not succeed, then Ukraine will fail because it "does not have enough people for the fight".
While Kiev desperately hopes for new miracle weapons, pressure is increasing in the West on Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia on a ceasefire. This was reported on Friday by the US channel NBC, citing US government officials. There are several reasons for this, it is said. On the one hand, the willingness to spend incessant billions on Ukraine is dwinding in both the United States and Europe. The fact that the Ukrainian offensive failed does not make the task of justifying the payments any easier. 3] The approval of the US population to the rearmament of Ukraine is also falling; the proportion of Americans for whom the expenses for Kiev went too far was only 24 percent three months ago, it has now risen to 41 percent. Only 25 percent, on the other hand, believe that Washington must make greater efforts. It is also warned among the military that in Ukraine the recruitment pool for the armed forces is significantly reduced. While, on the one hand, new soldiers would have no combat experience and could often not operate the weapon systems adequately, the widespread forced mobilization of soldiers is increasingly met with protest.
In Europe, too, the willingness to provide the Kiev armed forces with immense sums for the foreseeable future, which will be immediately destroyed on the battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine, is decreasing. This applies not only to individual states such as Hungary and Slovakia, whose new Prime Minister Robert Fico has announced that he will no longer approve any arms deliveries to Ukraine. 4] At EU level, there is also a growing aversion to new promises. For example, as observers note, the decisions of the European Council of 26. October with regard to the future financing of weapons for Ukraine "only vague formulations". 5] In particular, a proposal by the Foreign Representative Josep Borrell to reliably provide Kiev with a total of 20 billion euros from 2024 to 2027 via the "peace facility" was ignored. The EU states, it is said, are "short of cash"; they are facing a costly increase in the EU budget anyway. In addition, Israel's war in the Gaza Strip also threatens to devour EU funds in one form or another, especially if the war expands into a comprehensive wildfire in the Middle East. This is "not the best situation for far-reaching commitments to Ukraine." 6]
According to the NBC report, both US and European government employees have now moved to urge the Ukrainian government to start negotiations with Russia directly. In Washington, the conviction prevails that such negotiations must gain momentum at the latest at the turn of the year or shortly afterwards. This has also been communicated to the European allies, it is said. 7] Discussions have also been held with the Ukrainian government about what Kiev must be willing to give up in order to be able to conclude a deal with Moscow. The talks were "heavy," it is said. Some were led in October during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group ("Ramstein format"), which coordinates the rearmament of Ukraine under US leadership. At the meeting that was on the 11th October in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took part in person for the first time. Zelensky continues to insist that no one has "pressured" him to negotiate with Russia or even to make concessions to Moscow. 8] However, this only corresponds to the language regulation, which is also generally widespread in the West, according to which Ukraine itself decides how to act. It is obvious that you have no options when weapons and money no longer flow.
In principle, the West has been preparing Kiev specifically for negotiations with Moscow since the summer. The purpose of meetings on the 24th served. June in Copenhagen and on the 5th August in Jiddah, to which, in addition to Western states, countries of the Global South were also invited. For example, the question of security guarantees that should follow a ceasefire was discussed not only for Ukraine, but also for Russia - an indication that it was seriously about preparing negotiations with Moscow. 9] This is for a third round of negotiations, which will take on the 28th. /29. October in Valletta (Malta), less clear. President Zelensky stressed in advance more strongly than before, it was only a matter of winning supporters for his "peace formula". This provides, among other things, for a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all territories occupied since the beginning of 2014; their implementation can be considered excluded. Several states that had already independently made mediation attempts, including China and the United Arab Emirates, did not participate in the meeting, which was apparently considered a waste of time. On Sunday, Zelensky confirmed that he was "not ready" to negotiate with Moscow as long as it did not withdraw its troops. 10] This may lead to a serious dispute between Kiev and its Western war financiers.
[1] Ukraine's commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia. economist.com 01.11.2023.
[2] Valery Zaluzhny: The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces on how to win the war. economist.com 01.11.2023.
[3] Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee, Kristen Welker: U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say. nbcnews.com 03.11.2023.
[4] Question marks in foreign policy. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 26.10.2023. S. also "alert alert" because of Slovakia.
[5], [6] Thomas Gutschker: All eyes on the Middle East, Ukraine in the shadows. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 27.10.2023.
[7] Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee, Kristen Welker: U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say. nbcnews.com 03.11.2023.
[8] Ukraine's Zelensky denies war with Russia at 'stalemate'. france24.com 04.11.2023.
[9] S. on the third round of negotiations.
[10] Ukraine's Zelensky 'not ready' for talks with Moscow unless troops withdraw. france24.com 06.11.2023.