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What constitutes a “win” for Biden? Both Biden and Xi
are hungry to come out of APEC with some tangible wins. Biden needs to
walk a narrow tightrope of dialing down U.S.-China tensions without
appearing too soft on China—such is the politics of Washington
these days. He will want to set up new lines of communication with
China in the event of an emergency, seek assurances that China won’t
lend Russia more aid in its war in Ukraine, and rally other Asia-Pacific
countries to U.S. trade and diplomatic frameworks. In short, he wants
to show Xi that the United States remains a top player in the region,
despite the major crises in Israel and Ukraine.
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What constitutes a “win” for Xi? Xi, meanwhile, is
coming to APEC hoping to breathe new life into China’s ailing economy.
He’ll seek reassurances that Biden has no plans to recognize Taiwan’s
independence or undermine the “One China” policy, and that Washington
won’t try to completely punch down China’s economy—even as the United
States pursues punitive trade and export controls to reduce its
overreliance on China in high-end tech and supply chains deemed critical
to national security.
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Will the generals get to talking? After the spy balloon saga, China rebuffed
a request for U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to speak to his
Chinese counterpart. These direct military “hotlines” were seen as
critical during the Cold War between U.S. and Soviet military commanders
to prevent any mishaps or miscommunications from spiraling into an
all-out war before it was too late. Now in the new cold war with China,
Biden wants the Pentagon to reestablish military hotlines with Beijing. U.S. officials say this plan is in motion,
and if it’s announced at APEC as expected, it could go a long way
toward injecting some stability into the otherwise highly tense
U.S.-China relationship.
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Is the trade stuff a real win or a mirage? A lot of
seasoned diplomats have given Team Biden credit for strengthening the
U.S. hand in the Asia-Pacific on the diplomatic front: Deepening
trilateral ties with Japan and South Korea despite the tricky politics
involved; starting the AUKUS initiative; revamping ties with Vietnam and
the Philippines. But where they criticize Biden is on the trade front:
The United States hasn’t joined the marquee regional trade pact, the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership,
or CPTPP, a version of which then-President Donald Trump withdrew from.
Biden is looking to bolster a new major trade initiative, the
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Thirteen countries have signed
on alongside the United States so far, but behind the scenes some view
it as more style than substance: IPEF has concrete ideas on climate,
supply chain security, and tax issues, but it doesn’t address the bread
and butter of traditional trade pacts: reducing tariffs and increasing
market access. APEC offers the first signal of whether Biden can address
these criticisms and turn IPEF into a major new trade pact.
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Will there be any news on Taiwan? Taiwan is the most
sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations, and, most experts agree, the
most likely flashpoint that could trigger an open conflict between the
two world powers. China is hypersensitive to any change in the One China
policy that would be viewed as reinforcing Taiwan’s sovereignty—whether
it’s a few changed words in a diplomatic communique or Taiwan’s
participation in international organizations. The United States,
meanwhile, is likely to hammer home that it won’t undermine its One
China policy but will continue to deepen military ties with Taiwan in a
bid to deter any future Chinese plans to forcibly retake the island.
Suffice it to say, any signals of change to the status quo on Taiwan
from either side would be a very big deal.
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