The US released footage of what it described as a “self-defence” strike on an Iran-backed base in Syria [photo credit: US DoD]
The Americans and the Israelis have, thus far, been careful not to
claim that Iranians were killed in the airstrikes. Iran, for its
part, is playing a cautious game of using its regional affiliates to
harass and unsettle without provoking a major military response from
Israel that could pull Washington into a larger regional war.
An International Crisis Group (ICG) analysis
assessing the risk of US-Iran escalation as the Gaza war grinds on
notes the increasing number of attacks on US bases in both Syria and
Iraq being carried out by Iranian backed militias. ICG wonders if the
presence of US forces may be providing a useful target for drone and
rocket attacks which thus far have wounded 50 personnel, the majority at
the al-Tanf base in south eastern Syria. The base is used primarily to
train up Kurdish and Arab forces fighting the still-active remnants of
ISIS.
ICG points out that with an election year looming time is past for an
assessment of the usefulness of leaving US troops in place:
This assessment should consider whether the troops serve as a
tripwire for escalation to wider conflict and how to weigh the attendant
risks against the intended benefit of these deployments as it relates
to furthering counter-ISIS efforts. The need for such an evaluation is
perhaps most pronounced with respect to the al-Tanf garrison.
ICG suggests that the Biden administration as a stop gap should
quietly move the troops to another base whilst weighing up its options.
Other external players in the Syria theatre will, no doubt, be
watching for signals from the Biden White House. Chief among them is
Türkiye. Currently, the Turks are conducting limited drone attacks
against the Kurdish PKK and SDF in Iraq and Syria. However, Aslı
Aydıntaşbaş speaking to us from Washington noted in our 8 November podcast that President Erdoğan is likely to pounce should America pull its soldiers out:
I think it's clear that sooner or later, whether it's a Biden
administration or a Trump administration, the US will start to plan for a
pull-out from Syria. There's a quiet conversation in this town that
suggests the strategic value of US forces has now shrunk and it may be
that it doesn't make sense anymore to keep such a high number of troops
in Syria and Iraq and have them be sitting duck targets for Iranian
attacks (with) Iranian backed groups, So, a quiet conversation about
future withdrawal is going on. And Türkiye's game, to
me, looks like waiting it out, continuing to keep pressure on Kurdish
forces and waiting for the Americans to leave.
Meanwhile Russia has stepped up is aerial bombardment
of the rebel enclave of Idlib in northwest Syria. The Russians
anticipated that with attention focussed on Gaza the time was ripe to
further degrade resistance in Idlib. As reported by the Russian news
agency Interfax, but not independently verified, 34 rebel fighters were
killed in air strikes on 11 November. The Syrian regime has claimed that
the strikes were in response to rebel shelling of government forces
while reiterating that no civilians were targeted, again a claim
impossible to verify but considering past attacks by the Russians and
Assad’s forces not likely to be true.