Hamas' shock 7 October military offensive abruptly put an end to the
dynamic of de-escalation in the region [photo credit: @Aldanmarki]
Turn to De-Escalation
Towards the end of the decade, governments across the region
gradually came to the conclusion that what they were trying to do was
not working, that zero-sum competition was ultimately hurting everyone.
Exhausted, humbled by failures, hurt by the global economic downturn
spurred by the COVID pandemic, and adapting to the changing global
order, they adopted a new paradigm for interacting with each other. They
did not resolve their political and ideological differences, but
instead agreed to disagree on some issues while finding ways to
pragmatically work together where possible.
Saudi Arabia pushed the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt to reconcile with
Qatar; and Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Cairo rebuilt at least transactional
relations with Ankara. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also changed tact on
engaging with Iran; neither stopped seeing Tehran as a threat and major
regional destabiliser, but resolved that having a functioning direct
channel to their neighbour across the Gulf was less risky than being
locked into potentially uncontrollable tensions. The UAE (and Bahrain),
working closely with the Trump administration, pioneered a new approach
to relations with Israel, namely normalising bilateral ties without
waiting for a seemingly illusive final resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Instead of single-mindedly pursuing their competing versions of
regional order, states across the Middle East appeared to coalesce
around making their own economic development the new North Star of
regional politics. There was no time to truly resolve conflicts and
problems that seemed too intractable to fix anyway. Hatchets were buried
and pragmatism championed. Notably, this turn away from zero-sum
international relations occurred just as the US and the West started to
advocate for more black-and-white positions: against China, against
Russia, and against an Iran that was now supplying Russia with drones
for its war in Ukraine.
Hamas Shatters the New Paradigm
7 October has abruptly put an end to this dynamic of de-escalation
and avoidance of conflict and tensions. While the ultimate implications
of Hamas’ unprecedented terrorist attack and Israel’s uncompromising war
in Gaza will only become apparent over time, one thing is already
clear: left unresolved, conflicts in the region (and elsewhere, for that
matter) are liable to become only ever more combustible. The wars in
Libya, Syria, and Yemen may appear contained or containable for the
moment, but they can also re-erupt at almost any time; economic crisis
and state fragility in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon and Tunisia may seem
routine, but a sudden collapse cannot be ruled out. In short, stability
in the Middle East will remain out of reach until conflicts and
structural and governance weaknesses are addressed – however,
intractable and insurmountable they may appear.
The good news – amidst all the bad – is that 7 October has not reset
everything, or at least it does not have to. The lesson governments
across the region learned in the 2010s remains valid: uncompromising
regional competition only leads to more instability. Moreover, the
relationships that have been built in recent years are real and matter.
Riyadh and Tehran, Ankara and Abu Dhabi, Doha and Cairo – they can all
talk to each other more directly and pragmatically today than they were
able to four years ago.
That can only be a good thing, and anyone with an interest in
stability in the Middle East – and that includes pretty much the entire
world, including and especially, the West – should do whatever they can
to support the countries of the Middle East as they return to the
drawing board and work out a new regional order. In fact, policymakers
in Washington, London and Brussels should recognise that whatever
leverage and influence they have left after so strongly siding with
Israel not just in response to 7 October but also as the catastrophe in
Gaza has worsened from day to day in the weeks since, is best invested
in backing diplomacy as the only way out of the region’s myriad crises.