Decision Point for Venezuela Sanctions
By P. Michael McKinley and Patrick Duddy - November 17, 2023
Venezuela is at a crossroads. The carefully choreographed announcement on October 17 of an agreement between the Maduro government and the opposition Unitary Platform on a roadmap for democratic presidential elections in 2024, accompanied the next day by an easing of US sanctions, unraveled in less than two weeks.
Despite
government efforts to derail the vote, María Corina Machado
overwhelmingly won the Oct. 22 primary. The regime did not wait 24 hours
before questioning the legitimacy of the primaries. On October 30, the
Supreme Court announced it had invalidated the results. Hopes that
Nicolás Maduro would respond positively to the US sanctions decision
have all but vanished.
The question is what the United States should do now.
The
Biden administration’s effort to negotiate democratic elections in
Venezuela was a reasonable response to a prolonged crisis that has led
more than seven million Venezuelans to flee their country. After all,
almost three years of intensifying sanctions had not dislodged Maduro’s
autocratic regime. Neither an economic collapse of epic proportions that
preceded sanctions, nor an unprecedented international coalition of
almost 60 countries that recognized a parallel government headed by Juan
Guaidó, shifted the balance of political power.
Maduro
survived the sanctions and diplomatic pressure. By 2023, most
governments in Latin America had restored diplomatic recognition, and
Maduro’s envoys were once again welcome in European capitals.
Venezuela’s ties to China and Russia never frayed, but the two countries
recently began investing again in Venezuela. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s
economy started to recover.
It
was in this context that the new strategy was implemented, including
sanctions relief, to promote dialogue between the regime and the
opposition and to pursue the possibility of a modestly free and fair
presidential election. Initially, the approach made progress, resulting
in freedom for several US citizens arbitrarily detained in Venezuela.
Later, secret negotiations, including in Qatar, led to an apparent breakthrough in Barbados in October: an agreement on democratic elections and the easing of US sanctions.
There
are suggestions that the U.S. agreement to relax sanctions was also
motivated by an interest in increasing Venezuelan oil output to help
address a global energy crisis brought about by Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine. There was also the hope that the prospect of a more functional
Venezuelan economy might reduce the number of migrants headed to the
United States.
The
agreement, however, also included strict conditions related to
Venezuela’s re-democratization, including an electoral timetable and the
removal of barriers to opposition participation in the political
process. The White House explicitly tied sanctions relief to measurable
steps to permit a genuine electoral challenge to Maduro.
The
turnout for the opposition primary and the enormity of Machado’s
victory clearly alarmed Maduro, apparently leading him to conclude that a
free and fair election would lead to his removal from office. Polling
has shown that 84% of Venezuelans want a change of government. As soon
as the primary results trickled out, Maduro began walking away from the
commitments he made in Barbados, signaling that Machado would not be
permitted to compete in 2024.
For the United States and democratic opposition, the question now is how to respond.
Machado,
a center-right politician who has sacrificed much in challenging the
government, is appealing to voters across the spectrum and navigating
the vanishing democratic space. Critically, she is beholden to no
outside power, including the United States, where she was long viewed as
outside the mainstream opposition. She is the standard bearer for any
hope for a democratic transition in Venezuela.
Amid questions about the prohibition on Machado’s candidacy, the Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized that it is prepared to reimpose sanctions if the Maduro government violates the Barbados agreement. For his part, Maduro is betting Washington will be unwilling to abandon the agreement despite the regime’s noncompliance.
With
wars raging in Europe and the Middle East, the latest Venezuela drama
is playing out in the background. That said, the stakes are high and the
window to salvage the 2024 election is small. The end of November is
the deadline for Maduro to comply with the Barbados agreement, including
lifting the ban on Machado’s candidacy. Otherwise, US policy makers
will have no choice but to reimpose sanctions and support without
equivocation Machado as the opposition presidential candidate for the
2024 election, or risk jeopardizing American credibility on democracy
promotion throughout Latin America.