The Palestinian resistance have created an unprecedented opportunity
for a change in the balance of power not just in the struggle against
Israel but across the whole Arab world [photo credit: Saraya Al Quds]
Though Western governments still offer Israel their wholehearted
support, the atrocities Israel is committing and which are available to
view 24 hours a day for everyone on their timeline and social media feed
are leading to rapid changes in public opinion, especially in the US where pro-Palestine demonstrations have swept cities and university campuses.
This is putting Israel on a trajectory to becoming an uninvestable
pariah like the apartheid regime in South Africa, which also had full
western backing before its collapse.
Of course many continue to support Israel strongly and the Israeli
lobby remains extremely influential, but slowly the realisation is
dawning on western public policy makers that while in the past Israel
served a useful purpose for the West, it is becoming a liability, both
in terms of absorbing huge sums of money and creating vast numbers of
unnecessary Arab and Muslim enemies. The longer the atrocities go on,
the wider these sentiments spread.
At the same time the situation inside Israel itself is also difficult. Hamas continues to pepper Tel Aviv with large barrages of rockets. Israeli businesses have been buckling
under the war. The country remains in a state of shock, struggling to
come to terms with the impact of October 7. The security failures
surrounding the attack have led to a collapse in trust both in the army
and political institutions. The general public is deeply divided, with
people being arrested for opposing the war and chaos in the Knesset as families of the Israeli hostages row with ministers. Large numbers of Israelis are reported to be leaving the country.
As Arab Digest reported
at the time, existential problems in Israel were rising even before the
October 7 attack because of Netanyahu’s extreme right-wing government
pushing through controversial judicial reforms which would also serve to
keep Netanyahu himself out of prison. Five hundred Israeli reserve
pilots had threatened to refuse to serve because of the government’s plan.
As long as the war continues these divisions can be mostly papered
over but if it ends without Hamas being eradicated or all the hostages
being rescued, the divisions will grow deeper.
Meanwhile, there is mounting anger in the Arab world about what is happening in Gaza.
The most volatile situation is in the West Bank and in Jordan where
more than half the 6.3 million population is of Palestinian origin. An
Intifada erupting in the West Bank would be another disaster for Israel.
Mahmoud Abbas has 60,000 Palestinian policemen under his command whose
main job is guaranteeing Israeli security. If that control were to end,
either through revolution or by his dying (he is 88) and a succession
crisis then the Palestinian Authority will collapse, the people will
rise up and Israel will be facing a war on a new front.
Other Arab leaders are also in a difficult position. In public they
must show support for Palestine but behind closed doors they back Israel
and are doing whatever they can to contain growing public outrage. This
is not sustainable indefinitely and Jordan and Egypt in particular are
ripe for a coup or revolution.
Deep down, Israelis know the current situation is exceptional and cannot last forever.
Sooner or later the Arab Spring will return, current Arab regimes
will be overthrown and Israel will find itself faced with hundreds of
millions of hostile Arabs who are led by rulers not so ready to betray
the Palestinians. This is why Arab dictators have long since operated on
the principle that pleasing Israel is the best way to garner US
support to remain in power and why Israel is so keen for US and
European governments to back the current Arab regimes, even at the cost
of western principles, interests and security.
Had it not been for the Hamas attack on October 7 the situation would
have continued until a full normalisation between Israel and the Arabs
had been realised and the Palestinian resistance eradicated. Instead,
despite the ferocity of the siege and all Hamas’ military and
technological disadvantages, the way Israel has chosen to conduct the
war ensures at best a Pyrrhic victory that promises to reshape the
region and re-ignite the suppressed aspirations for freedom that fuelled
the Arab Spring.