The fracturing of the Sisi / Bibi love affair
Summary: Israel’s aim of destroying Hamas is unlikely to be
realised yet in the drive to do so Benjamin Netanyahu seems ready to
accept heavy damage to relations with Egypt and other Arab states.
We thank Maged Mandour for today’s newsletter. Maged is a political
analyst and a regular contributor to Arab Digest and to Middle East Eye
and Open Democracy. He is also a writer for Sada, the Carnegie Endowment
online journal. Maged is the author of an upcoming book, Egypt Under El- Sisi: A Nation on the Edge (I.B.Tauris)
which examines the social and political developments in Egypt since the
coup of 2013. The book is published 25 January. You can find his most
recent AD podcast which focusses on Egypt Under El- Sisi here.
On the 21 November, in a carefully orchestrated show for domestic
consumption, the Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly gave a speech
in the Egyptian parliament. In his address, the prime minister
emphasised that Egypt will respond “decisively” against any plans to
push Palestinians out of Gaza into the Sinai. The speech was met with
wide support, with the PM stating that parliament will “barricade” itself behind President Sisi. Madbouly's comments were a reiteration of remarks
given by the president on 18 October where he rejected the depopulation
of Gaza, even going so far as to hint that millions in Egypt would rise
up in protest at such a move. The regime’s position shows the beginning
of growing tension with Israel which, since the coup of 2013, has been
one of Sisi’s closest allies. In 2016 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu praised
the warming relationship between the two countries, thanking the
president for his efforts to bring peace between Israel and the
Palestinians.
The close alliance, however, was primarily based on an Egyptian
foreign policy that was geared towards one goal, ensuring regime
stability and long-term survival. Hence, as long as the alliance with
Israel functioned in a way that allowed the regime to cement its hold on
the domestic sphere, then this alliance would only get closer. From the
Israeli side, the Sisi regime played a role in taming Hamas, blockading
it, while not completely destroying it. This allowed
Netanyahu to continue to avoid peace talks with the Palestinians and to
continue his policy of settlement expansion in the West Bank. His
strategy was completely undone by the 7 October attack, which has now
placed Cairo at loggerheads with one of its closest allies.
Indeed, prior to the Hamas attack, the relationship between Sisi and
the Israelis had reached unprecedented levels of cooperation. In terms
of security, Israel participated in the counterinsurgency campaign in
the Sinai, conducting
over 100 airstrikes against Daesh-affiliated militants. Israel
participated in the Sisi regime's domestic repression through the sale
of sophisticated spy software used to monitor political dissidents. The American Jewish organisation AIPAC
even lobbied on behalf of the regime to ensure the continued flow of
American military aid as Sisi was establishing his autocracy. On the
economic front, the relationship also reached new heights, with a US$15 billion gas deal signed in 2018, the proceeds of which went directly into the coffers of the Egyptian General Intelligence Services (GIS). Another deal was also signed
in August 2023, aimed at increasing Israeli natural gas exports to
Europe through LNG facilities in Egypt, once again showing the depth of
the cooperation between the two countries. In exchange, the regime
continued to blockade Hamas, while working
to maintain security in Sinai, suffocating the strip but not completely
destroying Hamas either, in a complex dynamic of carrots and sticks.
The Israel war in Gaza, however, is a direct threat to the regime's
stability, which sees an influx of Palestinians as a grave security
risk. Indeed, such an influx would be extremely damaging to Sisi’s
legitimacy and would accelerate the erosion of his already thinning base
of support. One only needs to keep in mind that one of the main
propaganda pieces used to delegitimise the late President Morsi was his
supposed intent to “sell” Sinai to the Palestinians. Hence, any hint
that Sisi has accepted the transfer of Palestinians in exchange for debt
relief would cause an uproar amongst his base in the midst of a
crushing economic crisis which is already posing a grave threat to
Sisi's rule. In addition, the perception that Egypt is participating in
the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, or in the suppression of armed
Palestinian attacks against Israel would also do incalculable damage to
the regime’s legitimacy within a population that is decisively
anti-Israeli, in spite of years of propaganda against Hamas including
accusations of direct participation in terror attacks inside Egypt.
Hence, based on the regime’s calculus of maintaining a grip on power, no
amount of American or Israeli pressure will dissuade Sisi from his
staunch opposition to the depopulation of Gaza.
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