[Salon] Quick trip, big message



Quick trip, big message

Summary: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin surprised observers with a quick trip this week to meet with the UAE’s MbZ and the Saudi Crown Prince MbS. The warm and effusive welcomes that greeted him in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh bode ill for the Biden presidency.

When Vladimir Putin flew into Abu Dhabi accompanied by a phalanx of Russian fighter jets it will have been with a degree of deep satisfaction. Not only was the red carpet rolled out as he was greeted by Mohammed bin Zayed but the UAE president knew the kind of a show his Russian counterpart would most appreciate.

As reported by Sky “soldiers on horseback and with camels lined President Putin's arrival route, with Russian and Emirati flags draped from lampposts.” Putin fancies himself a noted horseman and famously appeared bare-chested on a mare in one of his many guises as a muscular Russian nationalist.

The grinding of American teeth at Cop28 and in Washington could not be concealed even with a strained diplomatic smile. John Kerry the head of the US delegation at Dubai made do with a visit of “solidarity” to the Ukrainian pavilion.

While there was no detail about what was discussed by Putin and MbZ it is safe to say that the main objective of the lightning visit was simply to provide the almighty photo op. For Putin it was an opportunity to say he was well back in the saddle and not at all rattled by the war in Ukraine. Granted it was a surprise event since the Russian president has been avoiding international junkets because of the risk of being slapped with an ICC arrest warrant for war crimes. He had to duck the BRICS summit in South Africa in August for precisely that reason. But he had no worries coming to Abu Dhabi as the UAE is not a signatory.

For MbZ it was further evidence of his commitment to a new multi-polar world order, one where his small state can punch above its weight comfortable in the knowledge that it no longer needs to rely on America as its sole security guarantor.

Once the photo op and the full parade was done and dusted it was back onto the presidential plane and, flanked by the fighter jets, off to Riyadh to meet with Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler. (Saudi Arabia like the UAE is not an ICC signatory.) Putin had a  jaunty bounce in his step when he arrived, thanks no doubt to the news that the US Senate had just voted against sending US$50 billion in military, humanitarian and economic aid to a Ukraine that is starting to show signs of buckling under to war fatigue.


Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets Russian President Vladimir Putin before a meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia December 6, 2023. [photo credit: Sputnik/Kremlin]

On meeting MbS the president teased him about having their next get-together in Moscow after the crown prince, according to Putin, had pulled out at the last minute from heading to the Kremlin: "I know that events forced a correction to those plans but as I have already said nothing can prevent the development of our friendly relation.” All smiles, he added “but the next meeting should be in Moscow."

According to a joint press release MbS and Putin discussed a fair amount of business: the Gaza war, Ukraine, Yemen and further defence cooperation. But the big ticket item for the world’s two largest oil exporters was the need for OPEC+ to submit to accepting  the voluntary production cuts announced at the cartel’s meeting 30 November. That was in response to the slide in oil prices now hovering at US$75 a barrel, down from a 2023 high of US$90 a barrel in late September.

While the economies of both countries are faring reasonably well - particularly satisfying for Putin who with the help of his Gulf friends is well on the road to seeing off the US-led sanctions regime – anxiety about China’s economic woes and its impact on oil prices remains a concern for Riyadh and Moscow. (For more on the China factor give a listen to Alastair Newton’s 4 October podcast.)

In their joint statement released by the Kremlin in Russian and English the Saudis and Russians celebrated their “close cooperation” and were clear about their expectations that OPEC+ members “enhance the stability of global oil markets.”

As noted by Reuters:

‘They stressed the importance of continuing this cooperation, and the need for all participating countries to join to the OPEC+ agreement, in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy.’

Reuters pointed out without further comment that "the Russian version used the word ‘join’ while an English translation of the statement, also released by the Kremlin, used the word ‘adhere’ to the OPEC+ agreement." The latter does strike one as prescriptive rather than voluntary, a point that MbS and Putin seemed keen to underline.

Joe Biden, if recent polls have got it right, is already facing an uphill battle for re-election against the increasingly inevitable challenge of an emboldened Donald Trump. Now, Biden will be looking at two Gulf friends and allies who  have just said loudly and clearly ‘Heh Joe we are dancing on both sides of the street.’ That should be of concern to the Democrats. Meantime, Biden’s Republican foes will rejoice in seeing the Putin quick trip as further evidence of the impotence of an aged president who, apparently, can keep neither friends nor foes in line.


Members can leave comments about this newsletter on the Today's Newsletter page of the Arab Digest website
follow us on TwitterLinkedIn and Facebook

Copyright © 2023 Arab Digest, All rights reserved.
You are receiving this email as you are subscribed to the Arab Digest.
Our mailing address is:
Arab Digest
3rd Floor
207 Regent Street
London, W1B 3HH
United Kingdom



 To unsubscribe from this list email editor@arabdigest.org


This archive was generated by a fusion of Pipermail (Mailman edition) and MHonArc.