Turkey's
engagement is through the Organization of Turkic States, which consists
of Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and the South Caucasus
nation of Azerbaijan. Neutrality-conscious Turkmenistan remains an
observer, while non-Turkic Tajikistan is not a member.
Turkey's
integration with the Azerbaijan military has been so multilayered that
the two partners have been described as having "one nation, two states,
one army." Turkish-provided attack drones played a crucial part in
Azerbaijan's decisive victories over Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh
clashes in recent years.
Outzen
foresees similar alliances between Turkey and Kyrgyzstan in the future
as the latter struggles in border clashes with Russia-backed Tajikistan.
"If
I'm Kyrgyzstan, I'm keeping in mind that the Turks are a friend. ...
They don't stop arms shipments or freeze contacts if a conflict breaks
out," he told Nikkei Asia in an interview. "They rush to the side of
their partner."
Outzen
said the integration of the Turkic states would probably be like a
stair-stepping process, starting with cultural convergence and moving to
trade convergence and ultimately toward strategic convergence. "They
would like to be like the Arab League," speaking with one voice on
diplomatic issues, he said. While it would likely not grow into a
security alliance, it could stop just short of a collective security
arrangement, according to Outzen.
On
the U.S.'s position, Outzen said that "we need to make sure we don't
get into a competition with Turkey, because frankly there's greater
trust, mutual trust, among the Turkic states, including Turkey, than
there is between any of them and us."
RAND's
Stoll agreed. "If the United States wants to boost its investment and
engagement with Central Asia, I think doing so in tandem with Turkey
could be a good course of action," he told Nikkei Asia. "It would
demonstrate long-term investment with a regional partner, which would be
a stronger assurance to the Central Asian republics that this
investment could last."
This
would be especially important, considering that for most of the past
two decades, Central Asia served largely as a launchpad for American.
involvement in Afghanistan and little more, he said.
But
Defense Priorities' Goldstein, who studied at the Pushkin Institute in
Moscow, said Russia's decline in the region should not be overly
exaggerated. "Russian soft power still goes a long way in Central Asia,"
he said, adding, "U.S. prestige after Afghanistan coupled with the
faltering war in Ukraine is also not so stellar.
"The
negative legacy of the Afghanistan War for the region is likely to
leave all players quite skeptical of great power games for at least a
generation," Goldstein said.
Central
Asia's strategic geography -- bordering Russia, China, Afghanistan and
Iran -- and its wealth of critical resources have driven U.S. interest
in the region. Members of Congress have expressed interest in expanding
American engagement with Central Asia.
In
September, U.S. Sens. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and Todd Young, R-Ind.,
introduced legislation to end Cold War-era trade restrictions on
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and grant the countries permanent
normal trade relations status.
"As
Russia and China's influence on Central Asia begins to wane, a Cold
War-era relic could cost the United States an important opportunity to
redefine our relationship with the region," Murphy said in a press
release.
"Once
a useful tool to coerce the Soviet Union into improving its treatment
of Soviet Jews and minority groups, today the Jackson-Vanik amendment is
an outdated trade policy that is holding back our partnerships with
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan," he said. "This bipartisan
legislation would advance our economic interests while sending a clear
message that the United States is committed to bringing our relationship
with Central Asia into the 21st century."