China’s Balloons Are Back. This Time They Are Over Taiwan.
Taiwanese defense ministry reports four Chinese balloons floating across the self-ruled island ahead of pivotal election
The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 3, 2024
TAIPEI—Nearly a year after the appearance of a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the U.S. sent relations between Beijing and Washington into free fall, high-altitude balloons from China have again been spotted floating over sensitive territory.
This time, it is the main island of self-ruled Taiwan, which is days away from holding a presidential election with ramifications for the future of U.S.-China relations.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said it detected a Chinese balloon flying over the island on Monday, followed by three more balloons on Tuesday. The ministry has previously noted Chinese balloons floating near the island, but this is the first time authorities have reported the balloons crossing over it.
Maj. Gen. Sun Li-fang, a spokesman for the ministry, said Tuesday that the balloons appeared to be the kind designed to collect atmospheric data.
“As for whether they have other purposes,” he said, the ministry “is closely monitoring and controlling the situation, taking appropriate measures, and summarizing their flight paths for judgment and analysis.”
The ministry didn’t respond to a question about whether it considered the balloons’ flight paths a violation of Taiwanese airspace.
The surprise appearance of a Chinese balloon over the U.S. in late January last year set off a precipitous decline in relations between Washington and Beijing that took months of diplomacy to arrest. With Washington in an uproar, Beijing described the aircraft as a weather balloon that had been blown off course and expressed regret, but it wasn’t enough to deter Secretary of State Antony Blinken from canceling a planned visit to Beijing.
After President Biden ordered the balloon shot down, Beijing took on a more aggressive stance and rejected a Pentagon request to discuss the incident. The American and Chinese militaries only began talking to each other again in December. A preliminary analysis of the balloon debris by U.S. defense and intelligence agencies found the balloon carried a mix of off-the-shelf and specialized equipment to collect photos, video and other information, American officials said.
Taiwan is gearing up for a volatile three-way presidential election on Jan. 13, when some 19 million voters will pick a new leader to replace President Tsai Ing-wen, who is stepping down because of term limits. Both opposition candidates say they would pursue a friendlier approach to Beijing than the ruling party candidate, Vice President William Lai, who has said he would maintain the status quo established by Tsai.
The close timing with the election makes the balloon overflights especially noteworthy, according to Ben Lewis, an independent military analyst based in Washington who closely tracks the activities of China’s People’s Liberation Army.
“I think this represents an attempt at election interference using gray-zone tactics,” Lewis said, referring to Chinese activity that falls below the threshold of military confrontation but is designed to test and intimidate Taiwan.
Taiwanese authorities have accused China of using a range of tactics aimed at influencing the election, such as spreading disinformation on social media, using subsidized trips to Chinese cities to sway Taiwan’s voters and, more recently, launching an investigation into alleged lip syncing by a popular Taiwanese rock band that officials in Taipei said is intended to pressure the band into publicly backing China’s claims over Taiwan.
Despite never ruling it, Communist leaders in Beijing have vowed to absorb the island democracy—by force if necessary. In his latest remarks, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said what he called a “reunification” with Taiwan was inevitable, according to a videotaped New Year’s address released on Sunday.
China’s senior leader in charge of Taiwan affairs, Wang Huning, convened a meeting in Beijing in early December to discuss ways for Beijing to influence the Taiwan election in discreet ways that wouldn’t derail a recent calming of tensions between Washington and Beijing, a senior Taiwanese security official said, citing unspecified intelligence.
China’s Ministry of Defense and Taiwan Affairs Office didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Beijing has previously denied that it is trying to influence Taiwan’s elections. A spokesman for the Chinese military told a news conference last week that it would “take all necessary measures to resolutely defend” its territory, accusing Taiwan’s ruling party of “deliberately exaggerating the so-called military threat” from China to hype up tensions to gain political advantage.
China has intensified military activity around Taiwan ahead of previous elections on the islands, with the effect of galvanizing support for candidates that favor a tougher line on relations with Beijing.
Taiwanese military officials have said they plan to stay on high alert for Chinese military moves around polling day, though Sun, the defense ministry spokesman, said there weren’t any indications that the PLA plans any significant action.
Taiwan’s military began including balloons in its daily reports on PLA activity on Dec. 8. It reported detecting seven such balloons crossing the halfway point of the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait separating the two sides in December.
Taiwanese security officials, who declined to be named, said they also detected Chinese balloons crossing the halfway point over the course of two days in November, without specifying how many there were or their flight paths.
Write to Joyu Wang at joyu.wang@wsj.com
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Appeared in the January 4, 2024, print edition as 'Taiwan Says China Floats Balloons Over Island'.