A still from a Huthi military training video showing preparations for
the upcoming conflict with the United States and its allies [photo
credit: Ansar Allah]
Regarding the first assumption, the Huthis are fiercely independent
as several knowledgeable commentators, among them AD’s Helen Lackner
have pointed out. One example: it was only when the Huthis decided to
push south to Aden in the early spring of 2015 that the Saudis and the
Emiratis reacted. The capital Sana’a had fallen months earlier without a
response. The decision to try to seize Aden was not supported by Iran.
Indeed quite the opposite. Iran had urged the Huthis not to attempt it.
It is the case that the Iranians have been supplying weaponry to the
Huthis but in the beginning of the Yemen war the extent to which that
was happening was exaggerated by the Saudis and others. As the war
dragged on and the stubborn resistance of the Huthis began to wear down
the coalition, Teheran stepped up the quality and quantity of the
weapons it supplied and today the Huthis are well armed with ballistic
missile and lethal drone capabilities. Well armed, seemingly uncowed and
ready to fight. As one of their spokesmen put it “we are more determined to target ships linked to Israel and we will not back down.”
That being so, pointing the finger of blame at Teheran as the prime
instigator risks further escalation, particularly should strikes be
carried out on Iranian soil. We don’t know but it may well be the case
that as in 2015 Iran is urging restraint on the Huthis behind the
scenes. The Iranians, perhaps more than anyone else, want to avoid a war
with the US.
The virulently anti-Semitic Huthi leadership, on the other hand,
incessantly call for ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’ (the full
slogan is "God is greatest. Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse
Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam.") Indeed if recent history tells us
anything it is that the Huthis relish a fight and are enjoying the kudos
and support they are receiving from many in MENA and in the Global
South. They are seen as taking a strategic and morally defensible stand,
stronger than anyone else in the region (including Iran), on behalf of
the besieged Palestinians in the killing fields of Gaza.
Theirs is a very clear message to Western powers: use your clout and
influence to force the Israelis into a ceasefire, otherwise we will not
stop our attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Washington and London have chosen to take the position that the Red
Sea strikes are separate and distinct from what is happening in Gaza.
That too - as divorced from reality as the claims by the IDF that it
does not deliberately target civilians - is dangerous. Saying that the
strikes are an act of self-defence and have nothing to do with Gaza while tossing out tough talk (Grant Shapps
before the strike “watch this space”) is not a pathway to de-escalation
especially given the dangerous brand of ideological fanaticism espoused
by the Huthis.
Given that the UK and the US have effectively been boxed into a
corner and in any event needed to respond with a show of force it makes
much more strategic sense to accept that the attacks are linked to Gaza,
pause the strikes and force the Israelis to call a halt to their war.
Admittedly a tall order given the players involved but claiming the
Huthi assaults in the Red Sea somehow have nothing to do with Israel's
war while fingering Iran as the central villain is a strategic mistake
and one that could have hugely disastrous consequences.