January 16, 2024
During the one hundred days of war by Israel on all people in Gaza the members of the 'resistance axis' responded to the onslaught.
Hamas in Gaza successfully attacked invading Israeli forces. Even yesterday it still launched missiles from north Gaza towards Israel. Hizbullah in Lebanon attacked Israel on its border. Iraqi resistance groups attacked U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq. The Houthi in Yemen attacked ships related to Israel.
The U.S./Israel axis escalated from there. Israel killed Hamas officials who openly lived in Beirut. It also killed an IRGC official in Syria and a Hizbullah official in Lebanon. The U.S. bombed the Houthi as well as resistance groups in Iraq and Syria. An ISIS attack, likely instigated by the U.S., killed some 100 people in Kerman, Iran.
After the U.S. attacked Iraqi resistance groups in Syria and Iraq these intensified their attacks on U.S. bases. Hizbullah slowly incremented its responses to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. After the U.S. bombing in Yemen the Houthi responded by adding U.S. and UK related ships to their target list. Yesterday a U.S. owned ship was hit by a Houthi missile.
The resistance axis is a collection of groups loosely connected to Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp has trained these groups. But it did much more than the usual U.S. military training would do. The IRGC encouraged the groups to contact each other and to exchange knowledge. They now cooperate on all levels. Iran brought in new technologies and weapons and taught each group on how to make their own copies. Today Hizbullah intelligence people teach Houthi how to systematically interpret U.S. actions. Houthi and Iraqis exchange missile and drone building plans.
The axis of resistance has become an assembly of quite autonomous entities who no longer depend on deliveries or orders from Iran. But they all follow the same anti-colonial ideology.
The U.S. tried to interrupt the resistance development by, in 2020, killing Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC and founder of the resistance axis. It was in vain. The resistance was already too developed. It continued to grew on its own despite U.S. attempts of interference. After Soleimani's death Iranian support for its resistance partners increased:
When President Donald J. Trump ordered the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the leader of the Quds Force, in 2020, “Iran’s response to the assassination of its national hero was very measured,” noted Adnan Tabatabai, an expert on Middle East politics who focuses on Iran-Saudi relations.What followed, Mr. Tabatabai said, was “what I would refer to as a severe deterrence crisis for Iran, because in the following two years in particular, Israel carried out the most humiliating operations on Iranian soil.” They included sabotage around the Natanz nuclear enrichment site and the remote-control assassination of the scientist at the heart of the nuclear program.
But in the four years since, Iran has deepened and sharply improved its proxy forces, supplying them with new generations of weapons, the capability to assemble their own arms and more training.
Until yesterday all but one member of the resistance axis had responded to the Israeli attack.
Last night Iran itself finally joined in. It fired ballistic missiles from Iran on two far away targets. The headquarter of the ISIS related Turkestan Islamic Party in Idleb, Syria, was destroyed. A headquarter of al-Qaeda aligned Hayad Tahrir al-Sham was also hit.
Another barrage of missiles came down (vid) in the city of Erbil in the Kurdish north of Iraq. The house of Peshraw Dizayee, a rich Kurdish businessman, was hit and destroyed. Dizayee did a lot of business with the U.S. and was involved in selling oil from the Kurdish region of Iraq through Turkey to Israel. Iran claims that his house was used as a base for the Israeli Mossad. That is at least plausible.
The shortest trajectory from Iran to Idleb in Syria is at least 1,200 kilometers. Iran thus demonstrated that it can reliably hit targets at that distance. The missiles used, named Khaybar Shekan, have a top reach of 1,450 kilometers.
These attacks are a warning to Israel and the U.S. Iran has shown that it can hit all of Israel with well targeted attacks without having to deploy any soldiers abroad.
Should Iran be attacked, it has the will and the means to respond in kind.
Posted by b on January 16, 2024 at 10:27 UTC | Permalink