Are Netanyahu and the Freedom Caucus in League to Help Putin
By Patrick Theros - January 12, 2024
A
visitor from another planet could come to that conclusion. Israel’s war
on Gaza has eclipsed coverage of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, drowning
out Ukraine’s pleas for more material and financial aid it needs
desperately to hold off a neighbor four times larger in population and
military material. Scarier, should the war spread to engulf more of the
Middle East, Russia would be the primary beneficiary. At the same time,
the MAGA wing of the GOP, the self-styled ‘Freedom Caucus’ has worked
assiduously to defund American weapon supplies to Ukraine.
Advanced
American weaponry has helped Ukraine balance Russia’s enormous
numerical advantage in manpower, artillery, and armor. Europe also
contributes significantly to Ukraine’s defense but cannot replace the
U.S. Its military industrial capacity downsized after the end of the
Cold War and will take years to rebuild. MAGA has blocked legislation
submitted by the Biden administration to support both Israel ($14
billion) and Ukraine ($60 billion). Israel can manage a temporary cut in
the flow of aid from the U.S.; it has an enormous inventory of U.S.
weapons granted it over the years as well as access to U.S. military
equipment stored in Israel for future contingencies. Ukraine had to
start the war from scratch; its forces were equipped almost entirely
with older weapons left over from the Cold War. It lacks Israel’s
cushion.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s survival
depends on keeping the war going indefinitely (or perhaps until Donald
Trump regains the White House). Massive demonstrations of unprecedented
size were rocking Israeli cities as its people protested what they saw
as Netanyahu’s ploy to transform Israel from a democracy to a theocratic
regime more akin to the Iran of the Ayatollahs. Netanyahu then dug his
hole deeper by refusing to acknowledge that he bore responsibility for
the massive intelligence and military failures of October 7, blaming
instead Israel’s military and intelligence services. The revelations
that Netanyahu had funded Hamas to undermine the Palestinian Authority
have further damned him in the eyes of almost all Israelis. Netanyahu is
toast as soon as the guns fall silent.
The U.S. government is no
longer worried about Hezbollah in Lebanon launching an attack against
Israel; the fear now is that Netanyahu will attack Lebanon to keep the
war going. At the start of the crisis the U.S. deployed the aircraft
carrier USS Gerald Ford strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to
deter Hezbollah from attacking Israel. Now the press reports the USS
Gerald Ford will return home. This is a subtle but unmistakable signal
to Netanyahu; if he attacks Lebanon, he should not expect American
support. Hezbollah is a far more formidable foe than Hamas, and Israel
would suffer badly without American firepower. Nevertheless, Israeli
forces have continued missile and artillery attacks on Lebanon, killing
more than a hundred Lebanese, including journalists; even using white
phosphorus, a restricted weapon, against civilian targets. Most
worryingly, Israel assassinated an important Hamas official residing in
downtown Beirut under Hezbollah protection. Although Hezbollah has
returned fire, it has done so with great care to avoid causing civilian
casualties while its leadership has repeatedly stated it will not join
the war unless Israel attacks. President Biden has once again sent
Secretary of State Blinken to the region, trying to keep the lid on
further expansion as Netanyahu ignores repeated messages to calm things
down in Lebanon.
The Gaza war has already spread to another part
of the region. Houthi rebels who control much of Yemen have attacked
ships in the Red Sea that they claim are heading for Israel. The Houthis
are more a nuisance than a threat. Half a dozen U.S. and NATO warships
can easily intercept almost anything the Houthis can throw at them.
However, the same American neoconservative hawks who brought us the
invasion of Iraq are delighted at a chance to start another war; they
advocate attacking Houthi launching sites. The Houthis have proven
sophisticated and adept, and we will not be able to prevent them from
firing missiles. Frustrated, the hawks will likely demand we attack
Houthi command centers, troop concentrations, and, of course, the
mosques and hospitals that always seem to be collateral damage. The next
victim of an American intervention in Yemen would then be Saudi Arabia,
which is trying to extricate itself from its seven-year war in Yemen.
The big prize for Netanyahu, his ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card, would be
to embroil the United States in a shooting war with Iran, a goal he has
pursued for years. This would be a gift of unimaginable value to
Vladimir Putin. Fighting in the Persian Gulf would disrupt the flow of
about a third of the oil and natural gas that the world consumes. Qui
Bono? Russia, a major oil and gas exporter that would be delighted to
fill the shortfall.
Meanwhile the Freedom Caucus has let military
aid bills for both Ukraine and Israel languish to make points on
unrelated issues, threatening to weaken Ukraine as it defends itself
against Russian attacks. This action harms Ukraine more than Israel.
Ukraine is fighting for its very existence; by comparison, the threat to
Israel is miniscule.
The
confluence of an out-of-control war in the Middle East and Freedom
Caucus political sabotage benefits only Russia. If this were a John
LeCarre novel, we would soon discover that its secret service, the FSB,
was manipulating both Netanyahu and the Freedom Caucus. Given that both
Netanyahu and the Freedom Caucus members are all small-minded petty
politicians whose only aim in life is power and thus easily susceptible
to manipulation, such a plot would make sense.
Are Netanyahu and the Freedom Caucus in League to Help Putin
By Patrick Theros - January 12, 2024
A
visitor from another planet could come to that conclusion. Israel’s war
on Gaza has eclipsed coverage of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, drowning
out Ukraine’s pleas for more material and financial aid it needs
desperately to hold off a neighbor four times larger in population and
military material. Scarier, should the war spread to engulf more of the
Middle East, Russia would be the primary beneficiary. At the same time,
the MAGA wing of the GOP, the self-styled ‘Freedom Caucus’ has worked
assiduously to defund American weapon supplies to Ukraine.
Advanced
American weaponry has helped Ukraine balance Russia’s enormous
numerical advantage in manpower, artillery, and armor. Europe also
contributes significantly to Ukraine’s defense but cannot replace the
U.S. Its military industrial capacity downsized after the end of the
Cold War and will take years to rebuild. MAGA has blocked legislation
submitted by the Biden administration to support both Israel ($14
billion) and Ukraine ($60 billion). Israel can manage a temporary cut in
the flow of aid from the U.S.; it has an enormous inventory of U.S.
weapons granted it over the years as well as access to U.S. military
equipment stored in Israel for future contingencies. Ukraine had to
start the war from scratch; its forces were equipped almost entirely
with older weapons left over from the Cold War. It lacks Israel’s
cushion.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s survival
depends on keeping the war going indefinitely (or perhaps until Donald
Trump regains the White House). Massive demonstrations of unprecedented
size were rocking Israeli cities as its people protested what they saw
as Netanyahu’s ploy to transform Israel from a democracy to a theocratic
regime more akin to the Iran of the Ayatollahs. Netanyahu then dug his
hole deeper by refusing to acknowledge that he bore responsibility for
the massive intelligence and military failures of October 7, blaming
instead Israel’s military and intelligence services. The revelations
that Netanyahu had funded Hamas to undermine the Palestinian Authority
have further damned him in the eyes of almost all Israelis. Netanyahu is
toast as soon as the guns fall silent.
The U.S. government is no
longer worried about Hezbollah in Lebanon launching an attack against
Israel; the fear now is that Netanyahu will attack Lebanon to keep the
war going. At the start of the crisis the U.S. deployed the aircraft
carrier USS Gerald Ford strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to
deter Hezbollah from attacking Israel. Now the press reports the USS
Gerald Ford will return home. This is a subtle but unmistakable signal
to Netanyahu; if he attacks Lebanon, he should not expect American
support. Hezbollah is a far more formidable foe than Hamas, and Israel
would suffer badly without American firepower. Nevertheless, Israeli
forces have continued missile and artillery attacks on Lebanon, killing
more than a hundred Lebanese, including journalists; even using white
phosphorus, a restricted weapon, against civilian targets. Most
worryingly, Israel assassinated an important Hamas official residing in
downtown Beirut under Hezbollah protection. Although Hezbollah has
returned fire, it has done so with great care to avoid causing civilian
casualties while its leadership has repeatedly stated it will not join
the war unless Israel attacks. President Biden has once again sent
Secretary of State Blinken to the region, trying to keep the lid on
further expansion as Netanyahu ignores repeated messages to calm things
down in Lebanon.
The Gaza war has already spread to another part
of the region. Houthi rebels who control much of Yemen have attacked
ships in the Red Sea that they claim are heading for Israel. The Houthis
are more a nuisance than a threat. Half a dozen U.S. and NATO warships
can easily intercept almost anything the Houthis can throw at them.
However, the same American neoconservative hawks who brought us the
invasion of Iraq are delighted at a chance to start another war; they
advocate attacking Houthi launching sites. The Houthis have proven
sophisticated and adept, and we will not be able to prevent them from
firing missiles. Frustrated, the hawks will likely demand we attack
Houthi command centers, troop concentrations, and, of course, the
mosques and hospitals that always seem to be collateral damage. The next
victim of an American intervention in Yemen would then be Saudi Arabia,
which is trying to extricate itself from its seven-year war in Yemen.
The big prize for Netanyahu, his ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card, would be
to embroil the United States in a shooting war with Iran, a goal he has
pursued for years. This would be a gift of unimaginable value to
Vladimir Putin. Fighting in the Persian Gulf would disrupt the flow of
about a third of the oil and natural gas that the world consumes. Qui
Bono? Russia, a major oil and gas exporter that would be delighted to
fill the shortfall.
Meanwhile the Freedom Caucus has let military
aid bills for both Ukraine and Israel languish to make points on
unrelated issues, threatening to weaken Ukraine as it defends itself
against Russian attacks. This action harms Ukraine more than Israel.
Ukraine is fighting for its very existence; by comparison, the threat to
Israel is miniscule.
The
confluence of an out-of-control war in the Middle East and Freedom
Caucus political sabotage benefits only Russia. If this were a John
LeCarre novel, we would soon discover that its secret service, the FSB,
was manipulating both Netanyahu and the Freedom Caucus. Given that both
Netanyahu and the Freedom Caucus members are all small-minded petty
politicians whose only aim in life is power and thus easily susceptible
to manipulation, such a plot would make sense.