The negotiations, which are being led by CIA director William Burns, are aimed at consolidating competing proposals that had been made in recent weeks by Egypt and Qatar. The minute that a new, single proposal was produced under American auspices, the situation became clearer. U.S., Egyptian and Qatari spokespeople began sending out the message that the talks had reached a critical stage and could be successfully completed soon.
The truth, as usual, is more complicated. Hamas wasn't invited to the Paris summit and the optimism broadcast on Sunday at the end of the talk reflected what had taken place between the Israeli negotiators and the American and Arab mediators. That is something akin to a marriage agreement between the groom and the rabbi before the bride has been consulted on her opinion. Moreover, the moment that the particulars of the proposal began to surface in the Israeli media on Monday, half-denials began to appear from the direction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office.
Any proposal worthy of serious discussion will demand significant concessions by Israel – in the first stage, the release of thousands of security prisoners and a cessation of hostilities in Gaza for a month and a half in exchange for about 35 Israeli hostages. Given the opposition he will face at home, Netanyahu does not want to commit to this.
Israelis protest for the release of hostages held in Gaza in Tel Aviv. One sign reads 'Hostage deal now!'Credit: Itai Ron
In fact, what happened in Paris is that Israel agreed that the mediators could give the proposal to Hamas, which is what happened. In doing so, Israel has committed itself to a great degree to the mediators' proposal even if it did not approve it in its entirety or officially. It also created a commitment to the Egyptian and Qatari negotiators and the government of Jordan, which is heavily invested in reaching a deal. Egypt and Qatar have many means at their disposal for pressuring Hamas. Its rule in Gaza is reliant on financial support from the Qataris and Egyptian willingness to open the Gaza border to the movement of people and goods.
The negotiators are now awaiting Hamas' counterproposal. It will almost certainly be even more difficult for Israel to accept. Nevertheless, it will signal whether there is any possibility of moving forward towards a deal. The ball will again be in Israel's court – and Netanyahu will have to decide if he is ready for the necessary concessions.
It is already evident that the extreme right-wing of the government will create difficulties for any kind of deal. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was quick to express opposition to any deal that entails concessions and issued threats to bring down the government (Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is not far away from that). The right is worried that a lengthy cease-fire will effectively end the war and therefore leave Hamas in power, at least in southern Gaza. Netanyahu is also aware that a partial release of hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners will be interpreted by large sections of the Israeli public as an admission that the Gaza offensive has failed.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir speaking at the 'resettle Gaza' conference, on Sunday.Credit: Olivier Fitoussi
A deal like this will also raise Hamas' esteem in the eyes of the Palestinian public and may alleviate the military pressure the organization's leadership is now feeling. The hostage families say, with great justice, that their loved ones do not have a lot of time left and that the government is obligated to rescue them in light of the terrible failures of October 7.
At the same time, no one can deny that the proposed deal will be an achievement for Hamas, no matter how the government chooses to present it. Even if it removes the danger to the lives of the hostages, the right will look on angrily as the Israel Defense Forces' reduces its presence in Gaza while Hamas celebrates in the areas the army has left.
At the opposite end of the spectrum to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, inside the security cabinet stand the National Unity Party ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who are also members of the smaller war cabinet, who support the deal even at the cost of major concessions. Opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) said Tuesday that his party would provide the government with a "safety net for any deal that returns the hostages to their homes."
Israel's Former Chiefs of Staff Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot.Credit: Hadas Parush
In a visit to the settlement of Eli, Netanyahu said that we "will not pull the IDF out of the Gaza Strip nor will we free thousands of terrorists. It won't happen." But in practice, the prime minister is rapidly approaching the point of no return, where he will have to decide between the two opposing forces in his government. Ben-Gvir is not alone. He will have no shortage of partners on the right, including Likud ministers.
In other words, one way or the other – if a deal moves forward – the coalition has slim prospects of surviving in its current form. No matter what Netanyahu decides, either the right or the left will abandon him. On the one hand, there is no realistic deal that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich could ever live with; on the other hand, there seems to be no scenario where the negotiations collapse (barring Hamas intransigence) and Gantz and Eisenkot remain in the government for an extended period.
The Biden administration is not investing in a hostage deal but in far-reaching regional undertakings. Over the past few weeks, it has been seeking to revive the negotiations on normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia and tie it to a Gaza "day after" accord. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer is overseeing the contacts on Netanyahu's behalf with the United States, but the Americans have also made sure to keep the leading opposition political parties – National Unity Party and Yesh Atid – in the loop.
The White House faces a challenging timeframe. Ramadan, which is always a tense time in the Middle East, begins in early March. In June, the presidential contest between President Joe Biden and his Republican rival, who will almost certainly be Donald Trump, will go into high gear. The White House does not want only to resolve the hostage problem but to tie it to Israeli-Saudi relations and convince Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to support and fund a day-after program for Gaza.
A billboard welcoming U.S. President Joe Biden to Israel, days after the October 7 Hamas attacks.Credit: Ohad Zwigenberg /AP
The American plan calls for the establishment of a government of Palestinian technocrats and giving the Palestinian Authority a foothold in the Strip (and, by implication, also leaving some role for Hamas behind the scenes). Given Netanyahu's refusal to talk about any kind of Palestinian state, the Biden administration is considering an alternative whereby it will be the subject of discussion with the current Israeli government as something for the future rather than an immediate, practical solution.
Saudi officials in recent weeks have expressed the need for a more decisive commitment from Israel to recognize a Palestinian state after the war in the Gaza Strip ends. But beyond these official statements, it is evident that the kingdom has not yet given up on the idea of normalization with Israel.
Riyadh's demands, presented to the Biden administration as part of the negotiations for the agreement more than a year ago, remain unchanged: a defense pact with the U.S., advanced American weapons and a green light for a civilian nuclear project. At the moment, the Saudis probably believe it will be easier for them to get this with Biden, than with an even more divided and divisive Congress, in the event Trump wins the election this November.