Why South Korea must see going nuclear as a non-starter
- Sentiment towards South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons is growing but doing so would have dangerous consequences
- Yoon’s
latest comments should be seen more as a means to deter Pyongyang and
signal to Washington that its policy to counter the growing security
threats isn’t working
South
Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol left nothing to the imagination
regarding the country’s stance on nuclear proliferation earlier this
month. In an interview with KBS, he called nuclear proliferation “not
realistic” and said
developing nuclear weapons at the moment might result in economic woes for South Korea.
However,
Yoon hinted at the country’s high level of nuclear latency, saying that
“it would not take long to develop nuclear weapons if the country put
its mind to it”. In doing so, he gave form to an issue gaining
prominence.
Frequent missile tests
by North Korea since last year have raised concerns around the world,
particularly in South Korea, where calls for nuclear armament are
gaining momentum. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s comments about war
being a “reality and not an abstract concept”, at a plenary session of
the Workers’ Party of Korea last December, only solidified these
concerns.
Concerned
by the dramatic developments on the Korean peninsula, some South Korean
analysts have raised concerns about the United States’ security
commitments. In an indication of waning faith in the
US nuclear umbrella,
activists have called for the country to secure its own nuclear
capabilities to counter the North Korean threat while arguing against
relying solely on the goodwill of allies.
A
possible change of administration in this year’s US presidential
election is also a cause for concern. In an analysis for the Centre for
Strategic and International Studies, Korea chair Victor Cha and
associate fellow Andy Lim argue that victory for Donald Trump could
result in a decrease in North Korean provocations but could also lead to
an increase in South Korean support for acquiring its own nuclear
weapons.
01:34
Seoul Mayor says South Korea should build nuclear weapons in the face of threats from the North
Seoul Mayor says South Korea should build nuclear weapons in the face of threats from the North
Sun
Sang-mok, president of the International Council on Social Welfare,
similarly argues that a Trump victory could pave the way for an
agreement between Washington and Seoul on South Korea’s nuclear
armament. These sentiments
have garnered popularity
among the public. According to a survey by Gallup Korea, 72.8 per cent
of South Korean respondents believe the country must develop its own
nuclear weapons, down about 4 per cent since last year.
However, considering the growing cooperation with Washington, and the establishment of a
nuclear consultative group
last year, the figure indicates that efforts have so far failed to
mitigate threats. More than 60 per cent of respondents said they did not
believe the US would use the nuclear deterrent in the event of an
emergency on the Korean peninsula.
While
concerns and anxieties have made nuclear proliferation seem like a
viable route, the feasibility of South Korea pursuing the nuclear option
appears to have avoided rigorous scrutiny. Given the complex security
dynamics of Northeast Asia, the road to acquiring nuclear weapons would
be a rocky one.
While South Korea is among the leading exporters of
nuclear energy
technology, its civil nuclear programme depends on imports and
enrichment services from other countries. This dependence is an
impediment to the possibility of an indigenous nuclear proliferation
programme as any move towards this could be curtailed by trade
sanctions.
Children
play in the ocean near Wolseong Nuclear Power Plant in Gyeongju, South
Korea, on August 21. South Korea’s civil nuclear programme depends on
imports and enrichment services from other countries. Photo: Reuters
Still,
supposing that South Korea was successful in repurposing its civilian
reactors to produce weapons-grade plutonium, the consequences of such an
act could be devastating. It could strain relations between Seoul and
Washington, for starters. While South Korea is
an important US ally, nuclear armament would severely test the trust and cooperation between them.
Sanctions
could follow, which would have a disastrous effect on the export-led
South Korean economy. It is also possible that the US could withdraw its
nuclear umbrella. Such a move, in the absence of a credible indigenous
nuclear deterrent, would jeopardise South Korea’s security.
An emerging nuclear proliferation programme would also lead North Korea to bolster
its nuclear arsenal,
further hardening its shell and nipping in the bud all possibilities of
denuclearisation. In such a scenario, Pyongyang would also look to
strengthen its ties with Russia and China against South Korea.
Beijing
would probably impose its own set of sanctions on South Korea. This
would have severe consequences for the latter’s economy, much like in
the aftermath of the sanctions
Beijing imposed on Seoul over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system.
Yoon
is aware of the potential consequences of Seoul’s nuclear armament. His
statement indicated the lack of feasibility in acquiring nuclear
weapons at present because of the backlash the country could face. His
comments must then be understood as a way of signalling to both North
Korea and the US with regard to the current developments on the Korean
peninsula.
Seoul wants to deter Pyongyang and
spur Washington into action
by hinting at the possibility of an indigenous nuclear programme. It is
clear that the current policy employed by the US and its allies to
counter growing security threats in the region has not produced the
desired results.
Pyongyang’s
growing belligerence has made securing nuclear weapons an attractive
prospect for Seoul. However, given the potential consequences, South
Korea must realise that such an option would only jeopardise its
security and harm its image as a responsible actor in the international
realm.
The
US, on the other hand, must realise that the current policy to mitigate
threats has failed and look towards diplomacy and dialogue while
collaborating closely with its allies to solve the conundrum in which
South Korea finds itself.
Gagan
Hitkari is a PhD candidate at the Department of East Asian Studies,
University of Delhi, India. He is also a non-resident James A. Kelly
Korea fellow at Pacific Forum, Hawaii, US