In the face of growing criticism of the absence of a diplomatic horizon and a plan for the day after the war in Gaza – considerations that were integral to Moody's decision to downgrade Israel's credit rating – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally presented his vision for the future to the cabinet.
He did so in the dead of night and made sure that the weekend papers had already gone to print, thus guaranteeing as little as possible public debate on the matter.
A perusal of this short document, which stretches to just over a page and is titled – as if it's supposed to be a parody of a kid's homework assignment – "The Day After Hamas," leaves one with the impression that the day after will be very similar to the day before. As is usually the case with Netanyahu, the document's aim is to play with words to hide the fact they are devoid of any meaning.
The document is divided into three time ranges: immediate, medium-term and long-term, so as to fool the reader into thinking that it describes some kind of linear development. In fact, there is no development whatsoever.
The document is actually no more than a paragon of engineered stagnation. For example, its first clause, titled "In the immediate term," explains that the war will continue for an unspecified period (but in reality, the war has already moved on to the next, less intensive phase) until Israel's goals have been achieved.
The last of these goals – after the destruction of Hamas' capabilities and returning the hostages – is "preventing any threat from Gaza in the long term." So the short-term goal is for the war to continue until it ends. Get it?
The second stage is the "intermediate term" and it constitutes the longest section – relatively speaking – in this list of slogans. This is very appropriate given that the program is aimed at no more than the intermediate term: a never-ending diplomatic-security limbo, a purgatory in a divine tragedy.
During this period, Gaza will return to precisely how it was before October 7, with the exception of some linguistic decorations: Israel will retain freedom of action, Israel will retain security control west of Jordan and around Gaza, a security zone will be established, Gaza will be demilitarized, etc. In other words, nothing that Israel could not have done undisturbed before October, 2023.
On a positive note, in the document there is no return of Israeli settlements in Gaza, no whitewashed population transfer and no military bases in the heart of the Strip. The plan is basically that Gaza will remain under an Israeli blockade, albeit perhaps an even tighter one, and in addition, there will be a security zone.
When it comes to civilian control of Gaza, Netanyahu's linguistic juggling reaches new heights: The Gaza Strip will be transferred to "local elements with managerial experience" who are not identified with terrorist elements. Incidentally, perhaps we should be envious of the Gazans because there are elements in Israel's government today who don't meet this criteria. The clause covering Israel's demands for civilian "de-radicalization" contain an innovative element in the form of aid from Arab countries with experience in the field. Here he means the United Arab Emirates. Will Emirati dollars replace Qatari dollars? It's more likely we will see a mix of the two.
Finally, we come to the "long-term" stage. Netanyahu's plan for a long-term diplomatic arrangement is that there is no such plan. "Israel categorically rejects" and "Israel will continue to oppose." Did we already say this was a parody? Netanyahu's plan for the day after is that there is no plan for the day after. Under Netanyahu, Israelis and Palestinians are destined, like in the movie "Groundhog Day," to wake up yesterday morning. He wants what he always wanted: to manage the conflict without ever solving it.