Tuesday's Democratic Primary in Michigan Becomes Referendum on Biden's Gaza War Stance
WASHINGTON – Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary in Michigan will be the biggest indicator yet for how concerned U.S. President Joe Biden should be of the sizable discontent among his base over his policies regarding the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
Over the past several weeks, a campaign urging voters to select "uncommitted" on their primary ballots has gathered momentum – aiming to both voice real-time displeasure and send a stark message about the potential consequences of an unchanged approach come the November election.
Michigan has been the epicenter of internal Democratic outrage over Biden's approach on the Gaza war, but the discontent predates October 7. Biden's perceived failure to hold Israel accountable for its actions has alienated the state's significant Arab-American and Muslim-American populations.
Prominent community leaders have been murmuring for months that the Democratic establishment, and Biden in particular, are failing to understand how alienating his policies have been throughout his term. These include admitting Israel into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program despite failures to ensure reciprocity for how all American citizens are treated at Israeli ports of entry.
The events of recent months, however, have pushed some voters nationwide past a point of no return. Michigan embodies all the key elements of the Democratic base that Biden has alienated while seeking reelection.
Beyond the aforementioned Arab and Muslim populations, Michigan also holds a large Black population, as well as young progressive voters throughout the state's university campuses.
Michigan was already set to be a key swing state in 2024 after Trump won it in 2016by 10,000 votes and Biden in 2020 by 150,000 votes. The state is home to some 300,000 people of Middle Eastern ancestry alone, which doesn't even account for the aforementioned alienated base.
Protesters rallying against U.S. President Joe Biden's support for Israel, on the University of Michigan campus in Ann Arbor, Michigan, last week.Credit: Jeff Kowalsky/AFP
Recognizing the problem, the Biden campaign attempted to staunch the bleeding in Michigan – important in its own right, but also to make sure it wasn't dealt a stark blow so early in the primary season.
Julie Chávez Rodriguez, Biden's reelection campaign manager, canceled a planned meeting with Arab-American activists in Dearborn in late January amid major blowback, according to American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee Executive Director Abed Ayoub.
Dearborn Mayor Abdullah H. Hammoud tweeted at the time: "Little bit of advice – if you're planning on sending campaign officials to convince the Arab American community on why they should vote for your candidate, don't do it on the same day you announce selling fighter jets to the tyrants murdering our family members."
Days later, activists launched a "Listen to Michigan" campaign aimed at encouraging voters to choose "uncommitted" with a six-figure ad buy targeting Michigan Democratic voters. They were immediately joined by more than 30 elected officials from across Michigan vowing to select "uncommitted" on their ballots.
"Our government has failed to act in the best interests of the lives of innocent men, women, and children, and worse yet, have suggested that there is an exception to the rule when it comes to Palestinian lives," said Hammoud at the time. "This matter has a direct impact on our Dearborn community, and more importantly, on each of us as human beings. We intend to make our voices heard in the presidential primary," he added.
Imran Salha, center, imam of the Islamic Center of Detroit, and Lexis Zeidan, left, addressing the media before a protest against Israel's war in Gaza, in Dearborn, Michigan, two weeks ago.Credit: Carlos Osorio,AP
The next day, February 8, senior White House officials traveled to Michigan to meet with key community leaders who had demanded to engage with policy officials rather than campaign officials.
During those meetings, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer explicitly acknowledged the administration's failures over the course of the war, while noting that he did not "have any confidence in this current government of Israel."
"We are very well aware that we have missteps in the course of responding to this crisis since October 7," Finer said in recordings published by The New York Times. "We have left a very damaging impression based on what has been a wholly inadequate public accounting for how much the president, the administration and the country values the lives of Palestinians," he continued. "And that began, frankly, pretty early in the conflict."
Significant push
For many of the community leaders present, the rhetorical lamenting is failing to bring them back into Biden's corner. "Senior Biden officials were talking about the mistakes as more of a messaging problem," Abbas Alawieh, a former Rep. Cori Bush staffer who is leading the campaign, told reporters during a Listen to Michigan press briefing last week. "But what was absent from what they were saying was any commitment to push even privately for a cease-fire that saves lives."
Even after the Biden team's efforts, progressives both in Michigan and across the country have launched a significant push to sway voters to vote "uncommitted."
U.S. President Joe Biden posing for a selfie with diners as he visits Michigan's Detroit metro area earlier this month.Credit: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Our Revolution, the political organization launched by Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2016 ahead of his first run for U.S. president, recently sent an email to 87,000 members in Michigan and to about 225,000 supporters in other states to "push Biden to change course on Gaza now." Its campaign to vote "uncommitted" also includes phone banking, text banking and events on Michigan's college campuses.
Sanders, however, has distanced himself from the drive, continuing to endorse Biden's reelection while clashing with much of his progressive base over his failure to deem Israel's actions as "genocide" and endorse the BDS movement against Israel – all while leading the charge within Washington to condition military aid.
Other figures with national reputations – some with ties to Michigan – have, however, lent their support. Former U.S. presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke backed the campaign, telling the Michigan Advance last Friday that "it makes sense for those who want to see this administration do more, or do a better job, to exert that political pressure and get the president's attention and the attention of those on his campaign so that the United States does better."
Documentary filmmaker and Michigan resident Michael Moore also endorsed the effort, telling MSNBC's Ari Melber: "The only way that Biden can hand the election to Trump is if he does not understand why young people hate war, don't want war – and they're not going to show up."
Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American lawmaker in Congress, is another Michigander lending her support to the effort. "If you want us to be louder, then come here and vote uncommitted," she said in a video posted to her social media accounts.
"It is also important to create a voting bloc, something that is a bullhorn, to say: 'Enough is enough. We don't want a country that supports wars and bombs and destruction. We want to support life. We want to stand up for every single life killed in Gaza,'" she added.
The campaign could also impact other parts of Biden's base such as organized labor. One of his key endorsements to date has been from the United Auto Workers, which itself has formally called for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Many of the union's local members, however, have stressed they cannot and will not vote for Biden without a clear change in policy.
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators marching during a visit by U.S. President Joe Biden to Warren, Michigan. earlier this month.Credit: AP Photo/Paul Sancya
The campaign also encompasses the state's progressive Jewish community, including former Rep. Andy Levin. The ex-congressman was among the most vocal advocates for a two-state solution in Washington (including writing and sponsoring the most thorough piece of legislation in U.S. history aimed at achieving such a deal) prior to losing a 2022 Democratic primary that earned national attention due to the involvement of AIPAC's super PAC the United Democracy Project.
Levin has called the uncommitted campaign "a constructive thing for the president," telling The New York Times that "on Gaza, we're going to have to keep pushing him."
The campaign was also endorsed by the progressive Detroit Metro Times, which has 523,000 print readers and 400,000 digital subscribers.
Eleanor Gamalski, a Detroit resident and Jewish organizer, notes that Listen to Michigan "emerged as a multiracial and multifaith effort right away. A passionate, intergenerational group of local Jewish supporters are throwing their energy behind this campaign.
"Voting uncommitted in the Democratic primary is Michigan's way to pressure Biden to stop financing Israel's assault on Palestinian lives and propelling the entire region toward another endless war. In a state that Trump won in 2016 by just 10,000 votes, we hold the margin of Biden's victory – and we need to make sure he knows it," she continued.
Gamalski noted that when she first heard about the campaign, she was immediately motivated to rally Jews in her life to support the efforts. "I saw an opportunity to send a clear, united message together with our neighbors of all backgrounds – that we won't be divided from each other, that all of our safety is tied together, and sending more weapons to Netanyahu's government keeps no one safe. I've tried to mobilize my entire community in a matter of weeks, and the response has been resounding and so energizing in a moment of political despair."
Local Jews have hosted two phone banks for Jewish supporters to collectively get out the word to their networks. They are additionally using an app called Empower that allows organizers to add friends and family to an outreach list.
"Through these two events, we've grown our Jewish outreach team to 40 active volunteers, and collectively we've built a list of 1,341 contacts and had 600 conversations with folks in our networks to ask them to support. Many of us have also been showing up to in-person events and virtual phone banks with the campaign, and the campaign has contacted over 200,000 households," Gamalski said.
Lex Eisenberg, a volunteer who attended the first phone bank, reached out to 100 people in their network and has since continued efforts to rally local Michigan Jews to vote uncommitted.
"As Michigan Jews, we are important messengers in a multiracial and multifaith, anti-war coalition telling President Biden that we are uncommitted to his administration's funding and support of genocide in Gaza," Eisenberg said. "Many of us have been organizing and attending protests, calling elected officials daily. This is a critical direct opportunity for us to tell Biden: By supporting genocide, you are not representing me as a Jewish person or as an American. If you want to win in Michigan, you have to win my vote with dramatic policy change – a cease-fire now and an end to U.S. funding to Israel."
Saving face
A local poll published by the establishment Detroit Free Press found that Donald Trump is defeating Biden 45-41 percent, with a further 14 percent remaining undecided. It also found that 53 percent of all Michiganders back a cease-fire to negotiate a hostage deal and provide humanitarian aid.
Protests and other events have been held throughout the state in the lead-up to Tuesday's primary. Speaking at a rally at the University of Michigan's Ann Arbor campus, Layla Elabed – Listen to Michigan's campaign manager and Tlaib's sister – said the goal is to get 10,000 uncommitted votes.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer attending a dinner for U.S. governors, at the White House in Washington on Saturday.Credit: Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/Reuters
Other events across the state have included protests, rallies, canvassing events, prayer services and storytelling events from Palestinian survivors of the 1948 Nakba.
Much of the pro-Israel Democratic establishment, meanwhile, is rallying to shore up support for Biden ahead of the primary – both in a bid to save face and to stress the dangers presented by Trump's possible reelection.
The Democratic Majority for Israel's DMFI PAC launched an ad countering the "uncommitted" campaign, stating that the vote would hurt Biden, "which helps Donald Trump and his hateful agenda."
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a key Biden surrogate and rising star in the Democratic Party who many believe could be a future presidential contender, similarly urged voters to be mindful of the consequences of their vote.
"There's a lot at stake in this upcoming election and I would just encourage people not to lose sight of that, too," she told the Detroit Free Press earlier this month. "A potential second term for the former president would be very hard on all the communities that are still being impacted by what's happening overseas as well and that's something that shouldn't be lost on people's calculation, too."