Lebanon Is Waiting for a Cease-fire in Gaza to End Its Dispute With Israel - Israel News - Haaretz.com
After meeting this week with U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament claimed that "the resistance [Hezbollah] will stop its activity the moment a cease-fire is declared in Gaza."
Nabih Berri went on to say that "the resistance, like all of Lebanon, was never against Resolution 1701. Therefore, the disagreement over the resolution, its implementation, and all the other matters will be discussed when the war in Lebanon stops," Berri said.
But when he spoke about a comprehensive agreement to implement Resolution 1701, he made no mention of the clause stipulating that Hezbollah must disarm and that Lebanon would only have one armed force – that of the government.
This is Hochstein's third visit to Lebanon since the beginning of the war in Gaza. This time he came with a document of principles, as the Lebanese government had demanded, but it still was not detailed enough for Beirut. According to Lebanese media reports, the plan consists of three stages: a cease-fire that would begin with the cease-fire in Gaza; pulling back Hezbollah troops from the Israeli border; and, at the same time, deploying some 15,000 Lebanese troops along the border. Later, indirect negotiations will be held between Lebanon and Israel over marking the land border and adding an international observer force.
Mourners carry the coffin of Hussein Ibrahim, one of three paramedics affiliated with Hezbollah who were killed in an Israeli strike, Tuesday.Credit: HASSAN FNEICH - AFP
If the principles are approved, the Lebanese army will be given more advanced weapons and equipment, its personnel will receive military training, probably by the United States, and, at a later stage, later Lebanon will get financial aid from an as-yet unknown source for the rebuilding of villages in the south. Also, drilling in the marine gas fields will be resumed, as agreed to in the marine border agreement some two years ago. The important innovation in the current proposal is that it doesn't specify the distance in kilometers Hezbollah is supposed to retreat to, whether beyond the Litani River or to a smaller distance of five to 10 kilometers. But it is clear to both Israel and Lebanon that the communities of the north won't be out of Hezbollah's missile' range, so the residents will not be able to return home.
In contrast, Hezbollah is demanding American guarantees that the cease-fire in Lebanon includes an end to all Israeli activity in Lebanon's airspace, not only during the cease-fire but in general. It is not known if Israel will accept this demand, but meanwhile, Hochstein can count on Israel's commitment to the diplomatic effort. He can also rely on the undertaking from Berri's and the head of the caretaker government, Nagib Mikahi, that Hezbollah wants an end to the hostilities, to advance talks and to demarcate the border – and that it intends to do so.
This was reflected this week in the words of Naim Kassem, Nasrallah's deputy, who said, "We didn't drag Lebanon to war, but there's a dangerous Israeli enemy that, at any time, can open fire on Lebanon without reason or justification. Our aim is to keep Israel deterred. We're no closer to an overall war, but we're ready for it if it breaks out tomorrow."
Kassem said the organization still adheres to the principle that "a cease-fire in Gaza will lead to a cease-fire in Lebanon." But it was Hochstein who issued a disturbing warning that triggered a wave of questions and interpretations in Lebanon. "A cease-fire in Gaza doesn't necessarily mean a cease-fire in south Lebanon. If a war breaks out beyond the southern Lebanese border, it will not be possible to stop it," Hochstein said, confusing his listeners.
Lebanon's leaders heard Defense Minister Yoav Gallant say that "Hezbollah is bringing us closer to military action in Lebanon" and they understand time is a perishable resource. The CNN report from last Thursday, citing American officials as saying, "We're acting on the assumption that an Israeli military operation will take place in the coming months, not necessarily in the coming weeks, but perhaps later this spring," was also heard clearly in Lebanon. But why did Hochstein see fit to stress that if a war breaks out, it won't be stoppable – that is, the United States itself wouldn't be able to stop it? If it was "merely" intended to pressure Lebanon and Hezbollah to speed up their decision-making, Lebanon fears it could be understood in Israel as giving a green light to a wide attack in Lebanon. This contradicts, on the face of it, the assumption that all the parties are not interested in war. But it seems the threat contained in Hochstein's statement is aimed at leveraging the increasing criticism in Lebanon against Hezbollah's behavior and portraying it as responsible for any war that would break out unless it also accepts the cease-fire achieved in Gaza.
Senior Advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in Beirut, Lebanon, in January.Credit: Hussein Malla/AP
Another fundamental question is what would happen if a cease-fire was not reached in Gaza and how long Lebanon would be able to remain dependent on Yahya Sinwar's decisions. So far, Hochstein, and the U.S. administration in general, are not trying to separate the two arenas. Rather, they have adopted the linkage dictated by Hezbollah between a cease-fire in Gaza and one in Lebanon, which they argue must be the basis for any diplomatic plan. In other words, the link between Gaza and Lebanon is maintained when it comes to diplomacy, and not just at a time of war.
Thus, Hochstein succeeded in "demoting" France from the competition on leading a solution to the conflict in Lebanon after France thought it could advance a solution in Lebanon regardless of the situation in Gaza. Hochstein also reduced the status of the group of five states (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, France, and the United States) that are involved in the effort to solve the political and economic crisis Lebanon has been in since 2019, by separating the issue of appointing a president in Lebanon from the conflict with Israel.
As a result, Washington, which until the war in Gaza kept away from the Lebanese issue, is now heading the diplomatic drive on the most fragile front, which holds the most potential for regional war.
But this new status depends on Washington's success in stabilizing a cease-fire, which depends in turn on the cooperation the American administration receives from Israel and Hezbollah. This means the essence of the guarantees Israel provides for non-warfare and the perimeter of Hezbollah's troops' retreat.