IDF preventing Palestinians from entering Al Aqsa mosque on the
first night of Ramadan, March 10, 2024 [photo credit: @AkanKwaku]
The threat that the Netanyahu government poses to Jordan’s
custodianship is but one of many challenges facing King Abdullah. Jordan
is home to over 2 million Palestinian refugees, roughly 20 percent of
the population. Most are housed in ten refugee camps
located across the country in a line running from north to south. The
camps are supported by UNRWA and the suspension of funding after Israel
claimed that a dozen UNRWA workers were involved in the 7 October Hamas
attack has put refugees already hard pressed at further risk with
economic consequences for the government. The evidence for the Israeli
claim is at best patchy but it was enough that many Western funders suspended their commitments. Though many have since resumed funding, among them Canada and Sweden,
the US and the UK have not. The former was UNRWA’s largest donor,
giving US$422 million in 2023 and the latter US$109 million in 2023/24.
Jordan’s economy is already severely stressed having being heavily
impacted by energy price rises, ongoing issues related to water
shortages, a looming crisis in funding state pensions and climate change
damaging the kingdom’s agricultural output, including the lucrative
market in olive oil.
A study
released in January co-authored by Ibrahim Saif a former International
Cooperation Minister in the Jordanian government pulls no punches:
Today, Jordan’s per capita income in real terms is no higher than
it was in the late 1970s. Since 1992, the unemployment rate has been
quite stable, while per capita income growth has been positive in only
15 years of the 37 years up until 2019. From the end of the economic
boom in 2009 to 2020, per capita incomes declined on average by (minus)
1.5% per year or by 25% overall. The influx of refugees and persisting
high fertility rates can only account for less than half of the decline.
The report notes the kingdom’s unemployment rate is running at 20%
and is particularly high among women and youth and that that has been
the case over several years. The private sector is stagnant and numerous
government economic plans have failed to reach their targets. Meanwhile
debt continues to pile up with anxiety growing over state pensions:
“the IMF (2023) estimates that the inclusion of social security holdings
in the government guaranteed debt increases the share of debt-to-GDP by
25%, from 88% to 113%. This share is more than the combined share of
education, health and social protection in public spending.”
The report is not entirely bleak and concludes by urging the
government to “forcefully” pursue its latest economic plan titled
Economic Modernization Vision 2030 by “improving governance; by
rationalising, though not necessarily reducing, public spending; by
reviving the private sector; and by promoting human development and
creating a more effective social safety net.”
A tall order for King Abdullah and one that he will attempt to
deliver whilst looking over his shoulder at his neighbour Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed bin Salman has long made it clear that he is seeking to add custodianship
of Al Aqsa to complete his kingdom’s monopoly over Islam’s three
holiest sites. Nor has the crown prince abandoned the goal of
normalisation with Israel, with one of the transactional pieces in the
deal reported to be Al Aqsa. A failing economy - together with the
ever-present threat that Itamar Ben Gvir will prevail in his vision of a
Greater Israel by driving Palestinians out of Gaza and the West Bank -
could give MbS the opening he needs.