Israel’s President Isaac Herzog was greeted in Amsterdam on Sunday
with signs ushering him to the Hague to be prosecuted for war crimes in
Gaza.
Should the Israelis persist in their genocidal war, conditions will
change and a process will be triggered that could ultimately lead to
Israel’s collapse. It could be fast or slow, but once set in motion it
will be irreversible.
If Israel collapses, either through internal strife or under the
blows of Palestinian resistance and global revulsion, besides being a
calamity of unfathomable proportions
for Jews, this would also lead to comprehensive changes in the entire
regional system since most of the Arab world has been structured around
Israel’s existence.
Without any Israel to protect, Arab dictators would suddenly become
much less necessary and though western countries would still seek to
maintain their interests in other areas, they could finally abandon
them, allowing a much more normal political life to develop in Arab
countries with more normal levels of freedom. This would have a deep
restorative effect on the long and fraught relationship between Arabs
and the West. Democratic elections could be held and all the extremist
groups and regimes that are founded on the philosophy of resistance to
Israel and the West would lose their reason to exist and would
disappear. The Jihad phenomenon in Europe and attacks like that by Salman Abedi in Manchester Arena in 2017 would end.
The obstacles to this rosy picture of Arab liberation and Euro-Arab
harmony are Israel, the current Arab regimes and violent jihadist
groups.
And like Israel, Arab regimes are not stable either.
Egypt under Sisi is one of the fundamental components of the
contemporary Arab political landscape, playing a key role in protecting
Israel and suppressing Arab democracy. In return, Sisi enjoys the
support of the West and its clients in the Gulf. For now the Egyptian
regime’s immense coercive capabilities allow it to continue to maintain
the status quo. But if the Egyptian people lose patience and decide the
risk of revolution outweighs the fear of repression then nothing the
West and the Gulf can do will be able to protect the Sisi regime.
Saudi Arabia is the other pillar of the contemporary Arab political
landscape. The Saudis use their diplomatic, religious and economic
weight to support US endeavours in the region and to maintain the status
quo.
However, despite all its religious and material capabilities Saudi
Arabia’s stability is built on a regime of fear that could quickly
collapse should its much-hyped economic transformation, Vision 2030,
flounder.
A disruption, internal or international, whether due to domestic
politics in America, major changes in Israel/Palestine, an internal
rebellion or a confrontation with one of its neighbours could collapse
the regime. That in turn would have a powerful "domino effect" on Yemen,
Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority which all
depend on Saudi largesse, paid both in the service of America and to
secure regional stability.
The smaller Arab gulf states depend completely on the regional status quo.
The UAE, for example, where immigrants make up 88.1%
of the total population would have no chance in a conflict with any
regional entity or armed group. Regime change there, like in Saudi
Arabia, would also have a major "domino effect" across the region
because the UAE is involved in Yemen, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, the Horn of
Africa and to a lesser extent also Iraq, Syria and Jordan.
Despite the success of the post-Arab Spring counter-revolution,
resilient pockets remain across the region waiting for the opportunity
to mobilise and transform into state level forces.
The Syrian revolution has been stalled by a collusion of forces: the
Assad regime, Iran, Russia, Türkiye and America as well as the various
Syrian factions allied with them. This has come about only because of a
rare intersection of interests between these outside players and should
this fragile balance collapse the situation in Syria would change
completely.
The revolution will unfreeze and many fighters who had previously
been prevented from joining non-state groups would do so, multiplying
their cadres and capabilities and paving the way for the end of the
Assad regime.
Given the many factions in Syria, Yemen and Libya and the strength of
Iran’s proxies, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, an Israeli collapse could
open up a Pandora’s box with many countries in the region descending
into conflicts between armed groups, violent jihadism and civil war.
Whether some form of Arab democracy can emerge from such a scenario is
difficult to discern. However America’s leadership in driving forward
unconditional support for Israel by Western democracies will only
accelerate the dead-end road the Israelis are on. The fuse has been lit
and a catastrophic war on many fronts is looming. A new Arab reality
will emerge, hopefully one that encompasses freedom both economic and
political, but it may be birthed amidst chaos and bloodshed the likes of
which the region has never before seen.