ISRAEL’S CAMPAIGN of collective punishment in Gaza has been historic in scale. According to the Gazan health authorities, the official death toll across the enclave is now roughly 32,000 people, the vast majority of whom are women and children. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently claimed that 25,000 women and children alone had been killed as a result of the war in Gaza. While some, including Biden himself, have raised concern over whether the casualty figures coming out of Gaza are inflated, others argue that
the death toll is likely even higher because ongoing hostilities
prevent researchers from the accounting for thousands of people whose
fate or whereabouts are unknown.
Across the strip, civilian infrastructure has been systematically decimated, and starvation and disease are spreading rapidly. The situation inside Gaza is so bad that the U.S. government—alongside other countries, such as France, Jordan, and Egypt—is now airlifting aid into the strip, and the United States is deploying 1,000
troops to build a pier off the shore of the enclave in order to break
the siege that its supposed ally—using U.S. weapons—refuses to lift.
Despite this, the Biden administration has continued to supply Israel
with advanced weaponry—including both smart and “dumb” bombs as well as
tank and artillery ammunition—approving more
than 100 foreign military sales to Israel since Oct. 7, 2023, and
invoking emergency rules on two different occasions to circumvent
Congress. The United States recently issued its
third veto in the U.N. Security Council since the conflict began, being
the only country to block a resolution calling for an immediate
humanitarian cease‐fire. This is in addition to another $14 billion in military aid for Israel recently passed by the Senate.
It’s difficult to fathom that this war could get worse, but all
indicators point in that direction, as Israel insists that it will
continue to push into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, despite U.S.
objections, where more than 1.5 million Palestinians—exceeding half the
population of Gaza—have fled.
The Biden administration has said it
opposes an invasion of Rafah “without a credible and executable plan
for ensuring the safety of and support for the civilians.” In an
interview with MSNBC, Biden spoke of
a “red line” in response to a question about a possible military
operation in Gaza, saying, “[we] cannot have another 30,000 more
Palestinians dead,” but he then immediately stated that “the defense of
Israel is still critical, so there’s no red line.” This incoherence not
only negates Biden’s leverage, but also binds Washington to whatever
policies the far‐right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu ultimately adopts.
Unsurprisingly, Netanyahu remains adamant that he will not bow to Biden’s ethereal red line by calling off his plan for a ground invasion of Rafah. Netanyahu recently stated that
he made it “supremely clear” to Biden that he is “determined to
complete the elimination of these battalions in Rafah, and there’s no
way to do that except by going in on the ground.”
Israel has demonstrated no long‐term political strategy in Gaza beyond the systematic destruction of the enclave and killing of its inhabitants. Netanyahu—whose support has reached all‐time lows, and who faces growing protests calling for early elections—seems to know that once this ends, his time in power is over.
Yet Biden has been either unable or unwilling to leverage the special
relationship with Israel or sway Netanyahu, who has previously boasted of his ability to manipulate the United States.
The White House has begun strategically leaking reports of Biden’s increasing “frustration” with Netanyahu, and the administration is becoming more vocal in its support for a temporary pause to the fighting. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer delivered an
unprecedented public condemnation of Netanyahu on March 14, arguing
that he has “lost his way” while also calling for new elections in
Israel.
But empty rhetoric without policy change will accomplish nothing.
SYMBOLIC ACTS—such as the recent U.S. executive order sanctioning two Israeli settler outposts in the West Bank or Biden’s decision to
reestablish the position that Israeli settlement expansion is
“inconsistent with international law”—is not going to stop the carnage
in Gaza, absolve Washington of complicity, or contribute to future
stability.
Likely in direct response to these actions, Israel just authorized the construction of 3,400 new houses in West Bank settlements amid historic levels of violence against Palestinians; the United States has done little to punish or halt the move.
Netanyahu’s recently revealed postwar plan contains
little more than a plan for the prolonged military occupation of Gaza
and the West Bank, which would guarantee future instability. Since Oct.
7, Netanyahu has repeatedly bragged that he is “proud” to have prevented the emergence of a Palestinian state, promising that he alone can continue stopping one.
In contrast to Netanyahu’s plan, the Biden administration’s day‐after blueprint includes a vision for a “pathway”
toward a Palestinian state. Notably, though, it contains no concrete
plans, much less intent, for implementation on the part of the United
States or Israel.
The war in Gaza should demonstrate that trying to sidestep the future
of the Palestinian people is a foolish strategy. But for Netanyahu—and
for Biden, by extension—it has perversely deepened a commitment to that
status quo.
Washington’s unwavering support for Israel amid the war in Gaza has
also had disastrous regional ramifications. From the Eastern
Mediterranean to the Red Sea, a series of different flash points risk
dragging the region—and the United States—into full‐scale war.
Additionally, Washington’s continued support of Israel’s brutal campaign
in Gaza has tarnished Washington’s image as a lodestar of liberal values, making a mockery of claims about a U.S.-led “liberal international order.”
A regional war would be disastrous for the Middle East and the
interests of the United States. Nor would such a war be a matter of
Israel’s survival. No state—including Iran—is about to push Israel into
the sea. Israel’s military superiority, nuclear arsenal, and strategic
alignment with the majority of governments in the region guarantee its
security against existential challenges.
Washington’s stance allows Israel to act with impunity while bending
U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East in pursuit of objectives that lie
well beyond Washington’s interests. U.S. interests in the region
include protecting the safety and prosperity of the American people and
preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon while upholding the
values that the country claims to stand for. Knee‐jerk support for
Israel does not advance any of these.
The pathologies of the special relationship with Israel have hindered
Washington’s strategic maneuverability in the Middle East and inhibited
U.S. leaders’ ability to even think clearly about the region. In late
2023, for example, Biden defamed his own country when he declared that “were there no Israel, there wouldn’t be a Jew in the world who was safe.”
This kind of thinking makes sound statecraft impossible.
THE UNEVEN U.S. RELATIONSHIP with Israel has, for example, hindered
Washington’s ability to engage diplomatically with Iran while pushing
the United States toward the use of military force there.
Over the past five months, Israel has repeatedly attempted to
pressure the United States into direct confrontation with Iran, despite
this being anathema to U.S. interests and regional stability.
High‐level military drills between
Israel and the United States, Israel’s recent attack on major gas
pipelines in Iran, and continued escalation between Iranian‐backed
groups and the United States across the Middle East risk sparking
a regionwide catastrophe.
Washington’s engagement with Israel—like any other state—should be
driven by the pursuit of concrete U.S. interests. Even U.S. relations
with treaty allies such as France or South Korea feature debates,
disagreements, and the normal push and pull of diplomacy. By contrast,
the special relationship with Israel has fueled some of the worst actors
in Israeli politics, encouraged ruinous policies, and generally done
violence to the long‐term interest of both countries.
Washington’s subsidies for Israeli policies have insulated Israel
from the costs of those policies. What incentive does Israel face to
change course when the most powerful state in the world refuses to
condition its profound levels of political, economic, and military
support? Were Israel forced to bear the full costs of its policies in
the West Bank, for example, its pro‐settler agenda would become harder
to sustain.
A special relationship with Israel does virtually nothing for the
United States while actively undermining U.S. strategic interests and
often doing violence to the values that Washington claims to stand for.
It’s time to “normalize” the United States’ relationship with Israel.
This does not mean making Israel an enemy of the United States, but
rather approaching Israel the same way that Washington should approach
any other foreign nation: from arm’s‑length.
No longer would decisions about military aid, arms sales, or
diplomatic cover be rooted in path dependency or muscle memory, but
rather in officials’ perceptions of the U.S. interests at stake. Instead
of enabling, shielding, and subsidizing Israeli policy, the United
States should reorient its relationship with Israel on the basis of
concrete U.S. interests.
This would entail Washington ending its willingness to turn a blind eye to Israeli affronts to
U.S. interests, by providing huge amounts of aid, and pushing for
a swift end to this disastrous war and a permanent political solution to
the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict.
The Biden administration faces a choice: continue following the
Netanyahu government into the abyss, or forcefully pressure it to change
course.