April 3, 2024
Trump Leads Biden in 6 of 7 Swings States, Pennsylvania is Key
Polls have narrowed but Trump is still in the sweet spot. An electoral map shows Pennsylvania is directly on the the roadmap to the White House.
A Wall Street Journal poll Shows Trump Leads Biden in Six of Seven Swing States
The poll of the election’s main battlegrounds shows Trump holding leads of between 2 and 8 percentage points in six states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—on a test ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates. Trump holds similar leads when voters are asked to choose only between him and Biden.
The one outlier is Wisconsin, where Biden leads by 3 points on the multiple-candidate ballot, and where the two candidates are tied in a head-to-head matchup.
In another challenge for Biden, the survey found signs that he has yet to consolidate the winning coalition that backed him in 2020. Across the seven states, Biden is winning 68% of Black voters, as well as 48% of Hispanic voters and 50% of voters under age 30 on the two-candidate ballot.
Those support levels are almost identical to the backing Biden had in the Journal’s February poll of the national voter pool and are far weaker than what he won in 2020. Nationwide, Biden that year carried 91% of Black voters, 63% of Hispanic voters and 61% of voters under age 30, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate that year.
Third-party and independent candidates represent an unpredictable element in the election, drawing 15% across all of the swing states. That includes 11% who back Kennedy, whose support rises as high as 15% in Nevada and 13% in Arizona. An additional 10% are undecided across all seven states.
The up-for-grabs voters are also disproportionately young and from racial and ethnic minority groups—one reason that Biden appears to be underperforming his 2020 support levels among those groups.
270-to-Win
The website 270-to-Win has North Carolina in the Trump column and so do I. It would be very difficult for Trump to win without NC.
Pennsylvania is Key
If Trump won Pennsylvania and Georgia, that would put him at 270. Some interesting possibilities could lead to a 269-269 tie.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan and the rest of the tossups go to Biden, we would have a 269-269 tie.
We could also get a tie if Trump won Pennsylvania and Arizona, and pulled off an upset in New Hampshire.
270-to-Win Explains Ties
If neither candidate gets a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. Senators would elect the Vice-President, with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win.
State House delegations can cast their vote for president from among the three candidates receiving the most electoral votes, while Senators are limited to the top two candidates in their vote for Vice-President.
It is important to note that an apparent tie when all the states are called does not mean that there is actually a tie. The Electors meet on December 17, 2024 (the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December) to cast their votes. Only about half the states have laws requiring their Electors to vote for the popular vote winner.
It is possible that an Elector could cast his or her vote for another person. We saw that in the 2016 election, when seven Electors were ‘faithless’.
As of late September, 2023, Republicans hold a 26-22 edge in House delegations. Two states, Minnesota and North Carolina, are evenly split.
However, it is the members of Congress elected in November, 2024, and seated in January, 2025 that would take on this responsibility.
As it sits now, Republicans hold 26 states so Trump would be president. The Senate could conceivably pick Biden as VP.
Imagine that.
I expect Republicans will win the Senate. So ponder the reverse: Democrats win a majority of state delegations but Republicans win the Senate. Biden is president and Trump is Biden’s VP.
Also ponder a 269-269 tie in which an elector does not vote as designated. In 2016, seven didn’t.
If that were to happen again, it would take a preliminary 277 for a majority. That means Trump would need Pennsylvania, Georgia, and at least one more state.
Yikes. This can easily get very messy constitutionally.
Does anyone sense we need a change?