US push for a 'Middle East Nato' failed to emerge during Iran strikes
Exclusive:
US scrambled Jet Fighters from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to fend off
Iranian attack, but Arab Gulf states unwilling to jeopardise
reconciliation with Iran
A man walks
past a banner depicting missiles launching from a representation of the
map of Iran coloured with the Iranian flag, in central Tehran, on 15
April 2024 (Atta Kenare/AFP)
Published date: 15 April 2024
The Islamic
Republic’s Saturday attack on Israel was a made-for social media moment.
It was also the ultimate test of US efforts to cobble together a
coalition of Arab states and Israel in a so-called Middle East Nato, to
jointly defend an attack from Tehran.
Israel, the US, France, the UK, and Jordan managed to intercept around 99 percent
of the drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles fired at Israel
by Iran in retaliation for an attack on its embassy in Damascus, Syria.
Radar and early warning systems that the US maintains at its military
bases across the Gulf were instrumental in tracking the slow-moving
armada of missiles and drones, current and former US, Israeli and Arab
officials told MEE, adding that the US was able to scramble jet fighters
from Saudi Arabia and Qatar at the last minute to particpate in the
operation.
But in the end, the oil-rich Gulf states downplayed any involvement
and left the heavy lifting of fighting off Iran’s attack to the US, its
western allies and Jordan, the resource-poor Hashemite Kingdom dependent
on US financial assistance.
For its part, Jordan cast its role actively downing Iranian drones as self-defence and not related to protecting Israel.
“There was unprecedented cooperation between Israel, the US and the
Jordanians,” Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence
officer, told Middle East Eye. “But calling this a coalition is an
illusion.”
Middle East Eye reported
on Friday that the Gulf monarchies were shutting down US options to
launch strikes against Iran in the event Washington felt the need to
retaliate against Tehran’s attack on Israel. Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
Oman, and Kuwait all scrutinised their basing agreements with Washington
to do the bare minimum that was required and avoid being involved in
direct strikes on Iranian targets.
'Most of the Arab states promoted reconciliation with Iran because they couldn’t rely on Biden’s administration'
- Michael Milshtein, former Israeli military intelligence officer
Bilal Saab, a former US Department of Defence official, now at
Chatham House, told MEE that the Gulf states’ calibrated actions
underscored the limits of the Biden administration's push for a Middle
East Nato.
“When we start seeing authorisations to use Gulf airspace to launch
strikes on Iranian targets, then we can start talking about a Middle
East Nato. Right now, it's the exact opposite,” he said.
“I think what we saw from Saturday’s attack pumps the breaks on any idea of an Arab and Israeli Nato.”
Propaganda war
As the dust from Saturday’s attack settles, the way regional states
responded in the lead-up to the assault is becoming a new battleground
between Tehran on one hand, and the US and Israel on the other - that
has little to do with the Palestinians but rather the bigger question of
who calls the shots in the Middle East.
The Biden administration and Israel are keen to cast Israel’s
successful defence as the byproduct of a united front of allies,
including Arab states. Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gatz praised the “regional cooperation” that allowed Israel to defend itself.
Succesful coordination with Arab states would allow Israel to present
Saturday as a strategic win, which could help reduce tensions by
lessening the need for a more forceful Israeli response, according to
analysts.
“What this weekend demonstrated is that Israel did not have to and
does not have to defend itself alone when it is the victim of an
aggression, the victim of an attack," US Secretary of State Antony
Blinken said on Monday.
'Saturday’s attack pumps the breaks on any idea of an Arab and Israeli Nato'
- Bilal Saab, Chatham House
For its part, the Islamic Republic’s goal is to isolate Israel, preventing any cooperation between them and Gulf states.
“It’s a total propaganda war right now,” Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi
analyst and expert on ties between Israel and Gulf states told MEE.
Tehran and Washington are already sparring over whether advance notice of the attack on Israel was given.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that Tehran
gave the US about 72 hours prior notice of the attack through “our
friends and neighbours”. On Monday, the Wall Street Journal appeared to
confirm that claim, reporting that
Iran briefed officials from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on its
attack. Turkish officials also told MEE that Turkey, a member of Nato,
was briefed on the attack days in advance.
The US, however, denied it was given a days-long heads up before the assault.
Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa
programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told MEE that an
Iranian leak to Gulf states would logically be passed on to the US
because Arab rulers are afraid a deadly Iranian strike on Israel could
spark a wider war, which Iran hoped to avoid.
“Jordan and the Arab Gulf states are first and foremost concerned about preventing regional escalation," he told MEE.
“I don’t see this as Gulf states doubling down on a strategic
alignment with Israel. They are going to keep talking with Iran to
prevent an unravelling that they fear will suck them all in.”
'Provoking Iran'
To be sure, the Arab Gulf states are linked more closely with Israel
today than any time in history, and Israel’s war on Gaza has not led the
UAE or Bahrain to rip up the 2020 Abraham Accords which saw them
normalise ties with Tel Aviv.
As part of that agreement, Israel was also absorbed into Centcom, the
US’s overall central command in the Middle East. Israeli military
officials were even dispatched to Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, MEE
previously reported, but it's not clear if those officials are still in the country.
But Saturday’s attack on Israel underscored the US’s limited success
in fostering closer security cooperation between Israel and the Gulf
states, Milshtein, the former Israeli military intelligence officer,
told MEE.
'The strategic value of restoring ties with Tehran is paying dividends'
- Aziz Alghashian, Saudi analyst
Gulf states have no love lost for Iran, but are wary of what they
believe to be the US’s waning influence in the region and limited
appetite to come to their defence, as Washington did for Israel. The US
did not retaliate to the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil
facilities that was blamed to have been backed by Iran.
The Gulf states' frustration with the US only grew when the Biden
administration took office. Biden and members of his party criticised
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over human rights
issues. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also viewed the administration’s
response to Houthi missile and drone attacks as tepid.
In response, they moved to patch up ties with Tehran. In April 2023,
the UAE appointed its first new ambassador to the Islamic Republic after
seven years. Saudi Arabia and Tehran normalised ties in a deal brokered
by China.
"Most of the Arab states promoted reconciliation with Iran because
they couldn’t rely on Biden’s administration,” Milshtein said. “They
preferred to deal with Iran and not the Americans”
Saab, at Chatham House, said to achieve true regional coordination
between Israel and the Gulf states, Washington would need to provide
concrete security guarantees. Saudi Arabia has requested such support,
along with new weapons systems, as part of a deal to normalise ties with
Israel, but those talks are stalled as Israel pounds the Gaza Strip.
“The last thing the Gulf is going to do is provoke Iran and not have the backing of the Americans,” Saab said.
Alghashian said Saturday’s attack on Israel likely reaffirmed Crown
Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s decision to restore ties with Tehran. He
said Riyadh’s goal is to “stay out of the way” of tensions between
Israel and Iran as it pursues its economic development.
“The strategic value of restoring ties with Tehran is paying dividends,” he said.