Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin (‘Bibi’) Netanyahu’s frantic attempts to stay out of jail by staying in his job have taken the U.S. one big step closer to sending Americans to die in a war with Iran.
Given that Netanyahu’s political career will end with the end of the fighting, he has continually tried to broaden the war. After months of small but lethal Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Netanyahu upped the ante. He ordered a precision strike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria killing several high ranking Iran officials, a slap in the face of the Ayatollahs that they could not ignore. They responded, but in a measured fashion, launching what appears to be a ‘Goldilocks’ air attack: big enough to get everyone’s attention but small enough not to do much damage. The Iranian ploy seems to have worked. Joe Biden, who, while reiterating his mantra of ‘ironclad’ support for Israel, told Bibi not to expect American help if he attacks Iran. That makes sense – if Biden sticks to his guns. Israel, left to its own devices, lacks the capability to deal a blow to Iran that would cow the Ayatollahs into submission.
Since October 7, Netanyahu has grasped at straws to avoid losing his job. All Israeli politicians know that his time in office will end with the end of the fighting, thus ending his immunity from prosecution. He also faces even more serious political consequences for his serial incompetence before and since Hamas attacked. For years, Netanyahu funded Hamas while blocking funds to the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority in order to prevent any peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, Hamas put Israel’s money to work financing the October 7 attack. Secondly, Netanyahu and his government, armed forces, and intelligence services were so focused on dealing with the popular reaction to his attempts to take down democracy in Israel that they ignored all the warning signals of the attack. They then bungled the initial reaction; according to numerous Israeli press reports, the initial Israeli counterstrike may have killed many of the 1,132 Israelis who lost their lives that fateful day. Netanyahu then announced unachievable war objectives: the ‘complete eradication of Hamas’. Next, he tried to provoke Lebanon’s Hezbollah to join the war, but Hezbollah leaders made it clear that while they sympathized with Hamas, they would only fight if attacked. Six months later, relatively few Hamas leaders have been killed, Hamas fighters keep popping up in parts of Gaza claimed pacified by the IDF, and only three hostages have been freed by military action. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s IDF killed so many Palestinians – 34,000 and climbing – that Israel risks becoming an international pariah. While most Israelis do not want a government change until the war ends, almost all agree that Bibi should face elections as soon as it does; the smart money is on a massive Netanyahu defeat, leaving him to face justice without any cover.
Biden, like most of his predecessors, had fallen into the trap of conflating the political survival of the Israeli Prime Minister du jour with protecting the Israeli state. In this case, however, protecting Israel demands the defenestration of the current Prime Minister.
Biden owes Netanyahu nothing. The Israeli Prime Minister has openly declared himself an enemy of Biden and the Democratic Party, interfered in American elections, contemptuously rejected American demands that the IDF stop the slaughter, and is now trying to get the U.S. into a shooting war with Iran. Biden’s heartfelt, if misplaced, devotion to Israel has had the perverse effect of undermining both Israel’s ‘ironclad’ ties with the U.S. and Biden’s re-election.
It would appear, as I write, that Biden has finally come to realize that he has been had. If he stays steadfast and refuses to let Netanyahu drag him into a war with Iran, Netanyahu has an insurmountable problem. Unsupported, Israel lacks the capacity to inflict proportionally as much damage on Iran as Iran can inflict on Israel. Ninety percent of Israel’s eight million citizens and productive industries are packed into 11,000 square miles, mostly flat, while the rest is desert. Seventy five percent of Iran’s 90 million population occupies 400,000 square miles with its defense industries dug deeply into its mountains. The Iranians were careful not to cause much damage this time; in full scale war they will not be so careful.
There are other consequences if Netanyahu broadens the war. In a large scale exchange, Israel will exhaust its inventory of standoff and air defense weapons quickly and demand replenishment. Do we want to waste these difficult-to-replace munitions desperately needed by Ukraine to survive in a war of existential importance for Europe and the U.S. in order to keep Netanyahu out of jail? Do we want to test Iran’s threat to destroy GCC oil and gas export facilities in the Persian Gulf if attacked by the U.S.? Will Netanyahu heed the warning of the President of the United States? Or is his desperation so great that he will provoke a larger war in order to save his skin?
Calling Netanyahu’s continued tenure as prime minister an existential threat to American interests is no exaggeration. Biden, hopefully, has come to understand that America’s real interests demand he shut down Netanyahu and his Middle Eastern sideshow – by shutting down Bibi Netanyahu.