Since Israel’s war on Gaza began, thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in neighbouring Jordan [photo credit: HRW]
In Egypt there were protests against Israel’s activities and the Egyptian government cronies profiteering off Gaza. The ever-anxious Sisi regime tried to cow protestors with threats, outlawed the protests and then on April 5 arrested key participants.
It wasn’t the first time since October that the regime had cracked down
on pro-Palestinian protestors but in one of the region’s most
ruthlessly repressive states where every other form of resistance has
been crushed the Palestine protests defiantly continue.
Similarly in Jordan, daily marches to the Israeli embassy steadily
developed despite stiff opposition from security services as Jordanians
called for an end to normalisation and cooperative projects with Israel.
Then, on April 6, almost in sync with Egypt, the Jordanian
establishment, initiated a broad arrest campaign, accusing the protests of being organised by Hamas (see our 11 April newsletter.)
Elsewhere, youthful disenfranchisement and dismay over Israel’s
atrocities are increasingly reflected in disdain towards the state and
its traditional vehicle of soft power, religion. In Morocco
long-simmering discontent over normalisation with Israel expressed
itself through people leaving Ramadan evening prayers
in protest at imams no longer offering prayers for Palestinians. And in
Saudi Arabia where all protest is banned and where religious leaders
have also conspicuously avoided praying for Palestinians, the Imam of
Medina’s grand mosque came under widespread social media attack when he
instead prayed to protect Muslim countries from protest.
In light of this continued fracturing under the weight of Israeli
atrocities and American pressure, Tehran’s heavily-signalled retaliation
(see our 16 April newsletter)
takes on different qualities, a ‘psyop’ to insulate and deflect
criticism of the Iranian leadership while exacerbating dynamics which
are causing the ground to break under Israel’s feet. American
desperation to defend Israel from Iran and prevent further escalations
has (at least temporarily) quashed Israeli aspirations for a regional
war but at the cost of damning Gaza to further devastation. Meanwhile
Iran’s dramatic retaliation, closely followed by the region’s social
media and much played out on TV screens, has served to deepen a
narrative flogged by Iran that contrasts Iranian resistance with Arab
acquiescence. It is a narrative that Jordan is already suffering from
after it was broadly cast as the bad guy for shooting down Iranian drones which violated its airspace.
As Netanyahu shifts his sights away from Tehran and back on Rafah,
with the promise of a fresh hell for the millions of starved and
traumatised Palestinians trapped there, all these dynamics will only get
worse. Trade through the Red Sea will remain throttled, the lingering
spectre of a broader war will deter investors and the unfettered
slaughter to come will keep raising temperatures and stymy efforts at
de-escalation.
Jordan may have been the first victim of Iran’s retaliation. But, as
the prayers of Medina’s Imam showed, every regional leader fears that
their enforced impotence towards Israel’s slaughter could spark their
already volatile and disenfranchised populations into massive street
protests of the sort unseen since 2011. What’s more, given the harsh
economic climate exacerbated by Israel’s activities, many non-GCC Arab
states may not even have the funds needed to continue buying the peace.