|
Reconceptualising Asia's security challenges
By Jean Dong
As
the world’s economic center of gravity and strategic focus continue to
shift toward Asia, the region has become a focal point for strategic
competition among major powers. The Asian region also harbors many
flashpoints such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula,
and the China-India border. The critical challenge ahead is how Asia can
maintain peace and prosperity in this era of significant geopolitical
frangibility and complexity.
The
conventional wisdom suggests that economic development driven by a
hegemonic power leads to economic prosperity and peace in the
Asia-Pacific. This approach leverages economic interdependence to
promote regional integration, and places more weight on pragmatic
outcomes in the strategic interactions among Asian nations.
This
“hegemonic stability” model has been applied by both Asian and Western
powers. The Chinese tributary system paved the way for an era known as
Pax Sinica, a period of peace in East Asia spanning nearly 500 years
from 1368 to 1840. The tributary system established a diplomatic and
commercial framework that enabled nations to meet their demand for goods
peacefully, both with China and with each other, thus minimizing
resource-based plunders. The prospect of participating in this thriving
trade network encouraged polities to prioritize economic growth and
adopt strategies geared toward long-term prosperity, which in turn
reduced their inclination toward conflict.
Similarly,
by underwriting the stability in Asia, especially after World War II.
the United States enabled countries in Asia to prioritize economic
development and trade over regional rivalries.
However,
this conventional “road to peace,” which has served the region well for
so long, is now confronted with three challenges.
First,
the burgeoning Asian economy may paradoxically be contributing to its
escalating instability. As countries grow more prosperous and stronger,
they may experience rising societal expectations, amplified national
ambitions, and intensified nationalism. These sentiments could motivate
competition for status and heighten the risk of conflicts over lingering
historical territorial disputes.
Further,
interdependence may lead to increased fragmentation and division within
the Asian region. The late Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia
suggested that states may resist deeper economic ties due to concerns
that increased interdependence could lead to strategic vulnerabilities,
such as undue influence over national security and sovereignty, supply
chain disruptions, and economic coercion. This tension is mitigated
between countries with aligned values, but it can escalate among nations
with stark differences, potentially leading to the division of the
region into separate blocs.
Lastly,
from an environmental viewpoint, economic strategies solely centered on
material growth risk societal destabilization over the medium to long
term. They could worsen inequality and heighten geopolitical tensions
over scarce resources, fuelling climate risks and a cycle of blame for
deteriorating conditions. This is particularly relevant to the Asian
region as its diverse geography and climate conditions make the region
vulnerable to a variety of climate risks.
The
concept of hegemonic stability in Asia is also undergoing a significant
transformation. Whereas Chinese dynasties and the United States
dominated the region and set the rules in the past, every Asian nation
now possesses agency in shaping the region’s future. For instance, as
the only region facing both the Pacific and Indian oceans, Southeast
Asia is crucial to the Sino-U.S. strategic competition. Central Asia’s
strategic location at the junction of China, Russia, and Europe gives it
crucial regional influence. As major U.S. allies hosting US military
bases, Japan and South Korea are pivotal to Asian security. India's
rising influence in the region is also undeniable.
This
newfound agency among Asian nations presents a double-edged sword. On
the one hand, Asian countries could band together to foster the
development of a more robust and comprehensive security architecture,
encouraging China and other regional powers to pursue more accountable
and cooperative engagements. On the other hand, Asian countries might
try to vie for centrality in the regional order. This desire for
influence could potentially hinder collective efforts to address
regional challenges.
Navigating
this complex security landscape in Asia paradoxically calls for both
boldness and caution. Asian nations must tread softly and take careful
steps to manage the myriad of current tensions and flashpoints amid
profound uncertainty. To begin with, it is vital that they bolster
communication and collaboration among security institutions within
Asia’s subregions, including the East Asia Forum, the ASEAN Regional
Forum, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. These
inter-institutional dialogues should aim to not only facilitate candid
and constructive discussions about ongoing tensions, but also devise
practical steps to prevent crises and disputes and offer policy measures
for de-escalation when they arise.
At
the same time, the region needs a novel and bold agenda to match the
magnitude of the challenges it faces. Looking into the future, in an age
marked by polycrisis involving not just seismic geopolitical shifts but
also various non-traditional security threats including climate risks,
technological upheaval, and societal transformation, it is crucial for
Asia to collaboratively reconceptualize the concept of security to go
beyond traditional geopolitical rivalry.
First,
it is essential that Asian nations adopt a holistic view and embed
non-traditional security challenges at the heart of Asia’s security
discourse. Second, they must recognize that these intertwined
non-traditional security challenges extend beyond the confines of any
one nation, rendering the notion of “siloed security” obsolete.
Cooperation is imperative. A possible starting point could be to adopt
the concept of human security introduced by the United Nations
Development Program as a guiding principle for the region, as it
acknowledges the deep interrelations among human well-being, economic
stability, environmental sustainability, and technological advancements.
The
tasks of managing tensions and reconceptualizing Asian security must be
pursued simultaneously. An exclusive focus on shared non-traditional
security risks could heighten strategic distrust by neglecting the
present risks of conflict and deeper causes of regional tensions.
However, efforts towards the reconceptualization of security should
begin immediately to catalyze cognitive shifts and cultivate innovative
thinking about new patterns of cooperation between states. This approach
may provide fresh perspectives for tackling the current complex
security issues and enhance resilience against Asia’s future challenges.
Jean
Dong is a research fellow at the Centre for Contemporary Chinese
Studies, University of Melbourne and author of Chinese Statecraft in a
Changing World: Demystifying Enduring Traditions and Dynamic Constraints
(Springer, 2023) |